Figure 3Figure 3
Modelled kinetics of granulocyte activation markers (GAM) in CSF over 60 days following disease exacerbation . Modelled CSF levels of neutrophil elastase (nEla), myeloperoxidase (MPO), matrix metalloproteinase-8 (MMP-8) and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) are shown for neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) (orange line), myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD) (blue line) and multiple sclerosis (MS) (red line). The x -axis represents days post-exacerbation (0–60 days), with the vertical dashed line marking the transition from the acute (≤21 days) to the subacute/chronic stage (>21 days). Biomarker values ( y -axis) are plotted in pg/ml on a log-transformed scale. Solid lines represent modelled trajectories, with shaded areas denoting 95% confidence intervals. Distinct kinetic patterns are observed: Pattern 1 (nEla, MPO, MMP-8) shows early elevation in MOGAD and NMOSD but relative stability in MS; Pattern 2 (NGAL) shows early e