{"quest":{"id":"q-capital-markets","name":"Capital Markets","description":"Virtual token economy with bidding, portfolios, settlement, and capital-weighted resource allocation — simulating blockchain","layer":"Exchange","priority":77,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-04-03 23:52:09","updated_at":"2026-04-10T14:44:10.355870+00:00"},"tasks":[{"id":"e240778b-1a93-4610-a88c-4cfe951d326e","title":"[Exchange] Multi-agent market order driver (driver #3)","description":"Recurring driver. Pick 5-10 agents from agent_registry whose token_account balance > 100, evaluate the top 20 active markets by volume, and place real market_orders matching each agent's persona/risk profile (use existing market_participants.evaluate() pipeline). Target: 30+ orders per cycle, 50+ orders/day across 10+ distinct agents. On no candidates, release as no-op. See driver #3.","status":"open","priority":95,"frequency":"every-2h","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-29T06:02:57.703918+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-29T06:02:57.703918+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"The driver executed successfully: **50 orders placed across 10 distinct agents with ~99,628 tokens committed** — exceeding the 30+ orders/cycle target and 10+ distinct agents requirement.","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_participation_drivers_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"7e6bef0e00f0c480a7da1f07312cfbca9c4fe056\", \"a2a4b30fb77eea1f0367cbd2f6cad0cfb3a2feb8\", \"e78979bc185cb8229594ae6ae9c0db2b55df2c3f\", \"c22e4bb7a3bd82a9c1cd2b2e135778d21f947a70\", \"8c1ebd85f35c1af0b944c98e7992e7c575ed3c96\", \"2027433091aab0c0b6d11d66d46266866d1de695\", \"0c41ebd823858305c2aae127dc396cfeff6d3ce2\", \"4829f14d17b080c66bf28f0acf6136f4171149ea\", \"b837e7485f36bf55bf2e6154fc934594af5950ac\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-13T04:26:49.221542+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"f0eae7d70d0134c04c8aa228a5224b6fba7103bd\", \"b6109acde95e661ee38f03abb4cc4dbf90ef8633\", \"2ef9610423bcec9db0e1457b4cddc4193642bad3\", \"682a1faeee512dd7c95465a6ea6d25f7be846104\", \"12f2cc04dafbe81860e7d9a03afb5afd8ee1d868\", \"082e23a247e2a50ed62e95b19cd05223b310a067\", \"e8341c84f15367a44db90822a92148e9463016e9\", \"df4f80aeac5718e309e5efb29bccc585d8f067a0\", \"9ec5edd7a6503b327b267c4b0eb095065899a0d8\", \"d5a94dc95302dde33d23326dba933e671d3c66d0\", \"e7b73b1064b8d945a5a056d33a912e0112ac73c1\", \"dd2d9b25a0d408772d3494b48a5fff643566f587\", \"da9f463f91e0c1b89afe0a86cd4934bcec33b04f\", \"b02c934838e47a4a468c8472a22e32d25a3ac997\", \"c8418cacba78ee7ccdac5aec3e6a1460a6c8d467\", \"f10434e20baa01d6acb2cf2ca95076a47025a73f\", \"88ed06433341c4919fd6f6b529a226bae5964b93\", \"61df9879152324c76b9da7790458b43d2a18c9fd\", \"9f5ced8fe849102fc845864efc512629a848ad8e\", \"9f969b13c1478cb74ea6b67b60edb9295e6dcdae\", \"811d7a5e6e638debe7b5043642f4a3f4fb348d86\", \"4f50f40c03e3bec627f59fe8ba1ab7c9124756da\", \"3c2d4a7e3d971cf8b29fa4754632ebe8e6535e8f\", \"fe9e435e4647f0f598f3f1a1ad665ecd27cf82ee\", \"3920ff2d9dcc7ffa8ee953468fd6f44b047cc883\", \"97add928b85f031fe1e69802f251b8b2b0805147\", \"3907b46df149a290c5147e33317dec4a9338cd8f\", \"c084ec29a3815a0db55d09b40e848ed6bd94ed06\", \"77bfa76c68b2f3f9c3af7b235fd0868f37eeb692\", \"11180d45ffce2dc4766ff25441075bd4e5414dac\", \"346c550dacca6f2cd786dcd36e06c245f6e3119a\", \"5ac52faa81ec265d2e137f958ab948a6a6902aa2\", \"f984312d0b288065e3c20b9f797391bf19f0447b\", \"e4c265e7d599dd9a3ffcbeb2c501a1ab23d7daf9\", \"cb6501d6ee4b876694ab7efbc40a7c4a859cebeb\", \"08eb3d6cc51ad904ae9ced8ff3b176993c860442\", \"36eb3b4dc1a9425be6bb3216b347ac22c4053e7c\", \"3d4bebb4ec6beb8c7b34abe5db756225e50fc5d9\", \"382b6872447dcc98e983bf5dfd40f73114589023\", \"5d1c70ee55434b098bcb89472dfabd476b9ce71f\"]}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":"pass","verification_notes":"Driver cycle completed: placed 50 market orders (111,447 tokens) across 10 agents. Daily total: 150 orders from 19 distinct agents, well above 50+/day target. Driver is healthy — no code changes needed.","task_type":"recurring","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"f4014150-c6f4-4de8-9c2d-ddfbe1b36fcf","title":"[Exchange] Discovery dividend backprop credit (driver #14)","description":"Recurring driver. For every world_model_improvements row with payout_status='pending', walk the provenance DAG backward (knowledge_gap ← analysis ← hypothesis ← debate_session ← agent), run a 3-hop personalized PageRank-style backprop with damping=0.85, distribute the payout pool to upstream agents proportional to their stationary mass. Idempotent: marks improvement 'distributed' on success, 'orphan' if no upstream agents found. See economics_v2_credit_backprop_spec.md driver #14.","status":"open","priority":95,"frequency":"every-6h","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-29T02:38:45.786807+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-29T02:38:45.786807+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"Recurring cycle — no repo commits this iteration [already on main: 66708cb4, 7270817e, b3668c46]","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_v2_credit_backprop_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 7, \"reasoning\": 6, \"safety\": 9}, \"completion_shas\": [\"2528e390bd84bfd946621a25184f6dc17438c2f9\", \"f40121c3dca7d006331d84011463ddf7561caf06\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-12T22:04:03.935607+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"5d12e0a5dcb097ce05da636384d1ba6f55a15302\", \"ac98833af630c7d24192f1b5748395c0eb40a060\", \"a2957c5ef420ce9c7c4598b70223879c3fcf50ca\", \"e1b239b2b351de0de5a98fccca6102fb2a6f42b0\", \"269947514a8c371e89de3ddcd300b6cde6a72ee1\", \"72a82dd5d3fe919d14a87a67a5608543dded8a6f\", \"2c349aaf0e9e1e61f1652975671d3892eff7c11d\", \"52c3b1aa35f54c6b358da71e73231887051cddbd\", \"5faf8dfd0bfe9fa85fc6b58b90c2ef07c3c79a2f\", \"9a97a49160df954058ce20f88c8c058c488671a1\", \"2bab255a5c38eddf27b7cd0ab5d544a62ce4031d\", \"900b63d4030a5a8ec112c4dbb8781fe3acd15606\", \"7cebfc1c272de71666bc2caedd9421d44a34530c\", \"c11121b483396493fce08c6f00450d9a118c24b7\", \"8c14fe5f982bbdb8b5068c5407df1ac0ddf57ad4\", \"670183fde7c1250d010f839643ff039e7aedff35\", \"6984fe4b6b05ea5339aec93b9a005890ea65a7ce\", \"08b757b49619107ae0d4ddea85731fa1a514671c\", \"379b01311cd25f7f4b4a01fac5d770f816387b3c\", \"ed9c667aa168fbe396150eeffb99830498290be5\", \"7ff95c157815bd1003132189d781c7acc86a114c\", \"53ff68e11914cfe77aa2f8783cbb8e05ee0fbeeb\", \"05160ba8f3e1eb332923d12f7b997f2ea06e47a5\", \"717902c5be4072ea3f1cecc64a1578869e6e4ca6\", \"e091f61d8773346d1f6e5b18a4fc7830786eeff8\", \"e6a42d0d23de86536d17ec9e816a612a62337e8d\", \"72cd036fcc13ea69dddc846f6262a090c0371eb7\", \"ed0516480b23be99e9e8761ac177a0a7cb1addbf\", \"eaf8d112f11c3903029ac240b0a6e070b73edef7\", \"a76176ed9b2ea828d06a4f3706728a75cf440ecf\", \"78dd42adb74deaa3396c85f13bca4f449c1c1f65\", \"b68a7d6d2f971c34be3a078e8e9f40f8bbab37df\", \"5c314d3dfb2e20b89c7a445367f2c0772416adc6\", \"0f14a448a9eb6b6b0d5059c4fe9b3227ddc25479\", \"09b7e70cefc53b5200befa892686304fd4b653fd\", \"d480372492ca170ae4009533a07071634a61f245\", \"2456c49f6c643277aee07677f7be0c4d1b470299\", \"99e6ace3c7a41f6defe4a00f6732da31dbfa567b\", \"07f7e81adafcc14ffd2b8c132a72057ce8dc9640\", \"e029717b1a2ac25c10f5b0bafd742d3a8c06d9db\", \"cb39c21dcdfc9b30286ac42e12545a2b71d8283a\", \"f4b0f7b14db74b79f1dddfb08f8cc09cb7d76e2c\", \"cd332482290aaaf56914def5a2f9ac5f6f72ff09\", \"16396900a3437eeafa8cc0de173f5b26ac336017\", \"801dd9a5712b0c410521c06458059871c2c6426f\", \"45e14e210c6a9b248b06c1aabe5a1a10392514e2\", \"d63b3ede81ec8c960a4362b1d4ca340e513e9399\", \"63ec8b3a107f0e5640000b2e71a69de1d9c7ee0c\", \"eed3b2401dff5231a601fa4afb4cb5add855c643\", \"a09568e44a4bd5ce4263f53da024eae3c7d4b75a\", \"e3722da6dff60967f4a7d7b0f3bee4d1ce281868\", \"1d9c30e9962301f5a4be3ce554db07bc098b0001\", \"1c24e03cf8b2592857154d4f19129d814fe0bb5d\", \"bc5902662a02e7b7be0f4f9216fc87f0690bcccc\", \"82d9b81053ba2ce58ded1dc3a666e2ca365d2ed9\", \"b8bd2e6dc787decace5af94f8633245e0f5e41f5\", \"26ef1b4739d63a41dce34ae416ac25825728f314\", \"72f34640615eb2f53eb504907ddf6d6d6901cb7d\", \"ae620cb26f7be7b9a14010a880b0d52fb95ed99f\", \"bdb136faa3f59add72c195a90216ca89bf670d7d\", \"c1a49548a52431aabda943136284f8bf371daf8a\", \"bb5e624609110d6d0377e453ba43203aaefd8d35\", \"0d5d1711eda9384797fa197a7fd6ee771a02194a\", \"7946e9fb1b89f69275df7911a814b7921513e41f\"]}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"recurring","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"9891f436-f404-4eba-8cd9-8c419d411ed1","title":"[Exchange] Token bounty issuance for open work (driver #4)","description":"Recurring driver. For every open task with priority >= 80 that does not yet have a bounty, mint a token_bounty paid from the system pool, scaled to priority (P100=200, P95=120, P90=80, P85=50, P80=30 tokens). Bounty pays out to the agent that completes the task. Skip tasks that already have a bounty row referencing them. On no candidates, release as no-op. See driver #4.","status":"open","priority":95,"frequency":"every-6h","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-29T02:30:26.741582+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-29T02:30:26.741582+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"Recurring cycle — no repo commits this iteration","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_participation_drivers_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 6, \"analysis\": 5}, \"completion_shas\": [\"528e156a41231649bc397fcdf90deca4fd69db54\", \"a7f9167b2763770c32c6d5186d949094b218f042\", \"a78c4bdd83a32194468a7a4d883556b188ba24a9\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-13T05:56:44.198017+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"7ed8e079acfbaefc6c09ee78468185e452702d03\", \"7c646291cad643a7b2ea7dbfcedf8391c05e9d31\", \"b06d2c0cb1c8f407f575d0689b3402f62d3212ab\", \"d8a16fde03303d3cb6a8e0e49eb0a3d97fcc84fc\", \"76cf251f070228a88c1d0015e1aa2b7a0b0d11a6\", \"d0a2819e4b69cfd713c5c5800dcc80d8b80de2bb\", \"d5ab37736cf3932becadf6a5afcc4260181dc3ab\", \"ae6a086b5e676b7d67576f0c69be3d8eaa8302eb\", \"2d1274bbf906f5ce5de093dc8fb17781016d016e\", \"b0ecf8e71925aef6a8a3e06d01e972e2742aa3d1\", \"f9997b7f75fd7138e4484534f7562ecd7b8d7fcd\", \"e735ade8c420882c0332648abcd93b9970c1a976\"]}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"recurring","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"44651656-dd74-4c90-9697-a5e115221f5b","title":"[Exchange] Reward emission for contributions (driver #5)","description":"Recurring driver. Read new agent_contributions rows since last run; for each, mint a token_reward_events row + corresponding token_ledger entry crediting the agent's wallet. Reward amounts: commit=10, debate_round=5, senate_vote=2, market_trade=1, wiki_edit_accepted=8. Idempotent. On no candidates, release as no-op. See driver #5.","status":"open","priority":95,"frequency":"every-6h","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-29T02:30:00.993477+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-29T02:30:00.993477+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"Processed 202 pending `agent_contributions` rows this cycle: repaired 9 stuck partial-credit rows, emitted 1,194 tokens to 18 distinct agents (orchestra_workers 200T, domain_expert/theorist/skeptic 120T each). `token_reward_events` grew from 28,138 → 28,340 rows. 24 rows remain for the next cycle (per-agent cap reached). No code changes were needed — `economics_drivers/emit_rewards.py` was already fully implemented.","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_participation_drivers_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"779fda2f67b3912e4072322c8dae3f0ed548eb63\", \"3dfce16841b92a4e5add5ba22ca0c71e6c1e52e6\", \"72381b0bae9c4c1addf32e72c980e82f0e76c8a3\", \"988d7835b31c2eb611e433ffa4af1f6682d285ed\", \"5b35ad142f719a4252211d77660850200be442ff\", \"eecf8ec648ab5aa4fffe047fe16f8d5681ceb153\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-12T23:27:24.952157+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"51ac334f18436eceaf8c7814a637e52ba5934fb7\", \"3964301b5fa56d9717c9fc7a977a4e1d559040a9\", \"2f27a82d19c1867091a75f733de380ef33c6f8b0\", \"c114a265ad6034670ae4e4e2f29eb2610eb4f2e6\", \"5e0a747deb7b8b677b465887323580ee130a3467\", \"d359699fb06abd7894ad5f02643ac5b62beef8ce\", \"30d014add32d472878bd7394423be2e6f468ab53\", \"cdc2a69844d3f0e83a9200b12e51c8cde910c5df\", \"2390ac090bf5ceb0e2fcf2a1ce21555149d3dfa1\", \"411dcbe9a30df6e05eacceffaf9121c922f6ec9b\", \"15faa5fb79ed5c98cab91b533e26ef4ebb41940d\", \"fa74b7de38186aeff7e22258a3fe49c504d8d4da\", \"4da5e45356d3ba691e63a605e9091d152e2bb99e\", \"f3ead61baae18342df45c0a5fd37bd9ad379047d\", \"000d66dcaa5db5bde1fa37c6dc87a2577223e180\", \"20f0b49370e8d952b3054d7d2a9c5750364f9ba5\", \"2c22be09e4bcee86517305c94070bda33cb62e12\", \"efcfb0f2c6ed4d54e0607a580cc518c196c6dc0a\", \"464dec62146cc361b39bc35e4681c4e545b68ec6\", \"db134a14a901dd5cfafa26e9394e39ede5b9fc1f\", \"d1fccbca33796306891cf35caa609b3ddde6dfc2\", \"3ccd9369c5de6ac032753cf4725116f298f49d61\", \"b5a8e4feaca481df673f8dc4cc28cc66efd8410c\", \"b1dbe843a0edb95647685739784307fae4893c70\", \"eb7a830f359be205c60b6394a4e7d16bcc998096\", \"d53604ce202dc63cfdb65665846768993f204771\", \"24c2455f982f3195fd1f78782f5ea2eae1c2767d\", \"1b0c876ee946f47fa267ac3dea0ba12dd7a42688\", \"e7d2589e544d01e67fac3c0c2134a19803252c82\", \"51d13fe5d2a4ac64f4e39b7273063b9647a13871\", \"4dc2d8034a4e16948d1e52921147f3ca650f79b0\", \"9b3dca388c982a409205d6de16e5449b11cf10fb\", \"731920c8d94b077b9aaf252f3b554ca0983c08a1\", \"2328fb2f53ab247013280fcf1339a87b3f8e5239\", \"2a0ab764a82eb1f03f544e67504ee6538d8e9c1d\", \"df16b68babe2d6c14c84b372aa5f5b8272dc883f\", \"8b97a7882fe7966af130ae6b6a5f5c914d9cf6f0\", \"70dd7923e63d4f240d0b86d1eda97b97f977ec8c\", \"e8cd3bbe3076f90d6e2f8631a7414a036fce59af\", \"c9f0d68a0e991fbecf11cc18e3937717c87e64bc\", \"f7052caedaf73526415db0afd6350344be152c6e\", \"4b25603665e1d8469d20c91d660e4d18478881ac\", \"b05d8eee78d21f0f495cfc1ff5d9caa223f989b1\", \"2e1ffab93a382cf66327c263927adcd3862bb124\", \"b55464527d1f55893418de3924c7ffb3a612e388\", \"85286c376bc7e2b6a1a0b422db44549407544d8b\", \"7003dcfccd82ab2edc528a5b6754f2eb80014905\", \"30329012e22fb2fda2072a9fd044bf30bd2fe3b3\", \"2fefef1661f9bf4840669463861789d4f9b86487\", \"394696a370a0f8fc5bd2974a9b7cc8afa223f88d\", \"9cae809ddcd4d238f083fb8f8e082ba09ef3fba3\", \"e06f4b1fc9e4ab0cf958c6135ebe6ef7b38d82dc\", \"ebb8bb4010f3185191d8d68d47ba949e20f420f6\", \"06846d9cd55110a97777bde465146889644622c4\", \"1fc3e992df1a6cf6772ac79ac01e0eb1b25b61d7\", \"f316f4d203fb434c90e1aca4fe1d685f9b21187a\", \"22f263a3d28d2e4c4a330a153e043a6989a17b7f\", \"bbd3f198ef41712e50693de2cdfc6863543c0c67\", \"aeaad5e4f8bdec5f3f74d90cc5027eab81e3a854\", \"0c90ce5f5997f44834395c737b893e7e9624989e\", \"4f10641bc768f41f6ea652eed752a9905e4f48d2\"]}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"recurring","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"3e1a8177-4e47-4067-8ae1-62102de6528d","title":"[Exchange] Squad harvest & pool distribution (driver #22)","description":"Recurring driver. For each squad whose target_disband_at has passed (or which has met its success_criteria), transition status to 'harvesting' then 'disbanded'. Distribute the pool_balance proportional to each member's contribution_score. Credit via token_ledger from the squad pool to each member's wallet. Mark squad disbanded_at timestamp. Implement at economics_drivers/squads/harvest.py. See research_squads_spec.md driver #22.","status":"open","priority":92,"frequency":"every-6h","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-29T05:05:25.634586+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-29T05:05:25.634586+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"The harvest driver ran cleanly this cycle. The 5 squads that were active in the previous run (sq-bb14e0c51274, sq-d79e9902eebd, sq-f82e0efaef81, sq-7eed9ee53cfc, sq-20a8646c2042) are already disbanded with `pool_balance=0`. The DB now has 0 active / 274 disbanded / 64 recruiting squads — no harvestable squads remain. `harvest.py` is syntactically valid and the `--dry-run` returns the correct no-op message. No code changes needed.","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/research_squads_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 7}, \"completion_shas\": [\"39e64a11a86816d27164d131534ed61eac4a958b\", \"4f83dedc004e41b6c735de7a10f5fc190d1c01ff\", \"27885157aa8a22adcca0303dbaedb6f7260d2a4d\", \"69bdfd82ae248260c9af9b1218ab7e00993806c7\", \"050d79714b5a1806c7a7d51812a95da95258a806\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-12T23:05:31.027329+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"13ba7f529ad6c39c440e6f77647d6f5ecbba6a0a\", \"d8f842b65257c4946b79514349c8b9518c1f0bf3\", \"1f9743931a60c3ff164121fd8a337476a680798c\", \"b3df8a756253b95ef2caf8352d829909821cbf12\", \"60dd221cee6cb2cc6c49243bd200aaefb68d1e97\", \"897dbf2d6b49189f944869441da2492db238cf17\"]}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"recurring","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"21ef1f77-5b0c-4d00-81af-ddfcf08ce9f9","title":"[Exchange] Token demurrage sweep (driver #17)","description":"Recurring driver implementing Gesell's Freigeld demurrage. Every wallet loses 0.1% per day if it has not transacted in the last 24h; the lost tokens return to the system pool to seed new bounties. Forces capital to stay productive — agents either keep contributing/betting/funding or watch their balance erode. The Wörgl experiment empirically validated demurrage in 1932-33. See economics_v2_credit_backprop_spec.md Tier 1 #4.","status":"open","priority":91,"frequency":"every-1d","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-28T07:14:05.252726+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-29T11:20:01.986505+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"Released after 7 rate-limit retries on glm","completion_notes":"","last_error":"watchdog: worker lease expired; requeued","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_v2_credit_backprop_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 6, \"safety\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"46d533026aca4b95aba4258ced4584243da6a2ab\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-12T17:39:41.070351+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"7daa0b33551fdccf47d59b6f24eadb10172b352b\"]}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"recurring","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"46ae57a3-2883-4a36-a888-fc39d0812b27","title":"[Exchange] Squad-member dividend multiplier on backprop (driver #23)","description":"Extension to v2 driver #14 (backprop_credit). When the PageRank walk reaches an agent_contributions row tagged as 'squad_finding' (metadata.via_squad set), apply a 2x multiplier to that contribution's weight before normalizing. This rewards patient focused squad work over scattered atomic tasks. Implement as a small change in economics_drivers/backprop_credit.py + new test. See research_squads_spec.md driver #23.","status":"open","priority":91,"frequency":"every-6h","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-28T03:34:01.901085+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-28T03:34:01.901085+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"Commit `aec309b7e` is pushed to `orchestra/task/46ae57a3-squad-member-dividend-multiplier-on-back`. Summary of changes:","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/research_squads_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 6, \"safety\": 9}, \"completion_shas\": [\"7dcc26e20cf622e139e76683f614e1b68e68678b\", \"74f415294ae8b9f5e49dabae5513f069ba804a5b\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-13T07:23:36.213509+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"20da50ceac9ac2a77629759017482dd3e2157e01\", \"6292fe0ab2d46fc93613cdaa276309c31be112fb\", \"e5cdcca524d9e96967f832daec5f4f83c0c4eb46\", \"e79d86886700f0ed0f0f6325a6636c2d027a6010\", \"d9880e54f5afd029dfd284abe64e37119f290f9c\", \"8ee3523c9b290e8c6c71b353b5b7434e4834fb09\", \"92e4c8f653e3e81803fee737d7f89e48f19750e8\", \"4a3d663bf510004d331111cb882ed02f572124ba\", \"4f8206ce911bb7bf9850456d29c3c1fe2978eb05\", \"0f3ba3530826ccccfb7868e4420bea64d9121b76\", \"c709b9b717e4307338d6064082df4eeb5cbd1e7a\", \"52ecff60c7da5915ff796f4da545f912836d7812\", \"4375fb78625504e0c123193f5eff47e5916dfce1\", \"9f713fb005c948370bb90661ff2d61a118621205\", \"9e5f758f6157a45227e4128ec1f9e71cba678da8\", \"a1d3e7eddf32f96dfa8864d38e5556973619f629\", \"eae2674f5d14f9a65086e1a5b916d04eb36d2aaf\", \"992c41e77cdeccade020e7ec5193cf1ed11ef86a\", \"9105616a3eb8a906a89914c3ca6d076ff36c3d89\"]}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":"pass","verification_notes":"verified already complete; 2x squad dividend multiplier in backprop_credit.py on origin/main (commit 3a87ef78f)","task_type":"recurring","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"360e2578-061f-4dd2-962f-524c546d2804","title":"[Exchange] exch-cm-01-LEDG: Token ledger with double-entry accounting","description":"Implement the token ledger with double-entry accounting as the foundation for the capital markets system. Every credit/debit must be balanced. This enables token earning, bidding, and portfolio tracking. Spec: quest_capital_markets_spec.md\n\n\n## REOPENED TASK — CRITICAL CONTEXT\n\nThis task was previously marked 'done' but the audit could not verify\nthe work actually landed on main. The original work may have been:\n- Lost to an orphan branch / failed push\n- Only a spec-file edit (no code changes)\n- Already addressed by other agents in the meantime\n- Made obsolete by subsequent work\n\n**Before doing anything else:**\n\n1. **Re-evaluate the task in light of CURRENT main state.** Read the\n spec and the relevant files on origin/main NOW. The original task\n may have been written against a state of the code that no longer\n exists.\n\n2. **Verify the task still advances SciDEX's aims.** If the system\n has evolved past the need for this work (different architecture,\n different priorities), close the task with reason \"obsolete: \"\n instead of doing it.\n\n3. **Check if it's already done.** Run `git log --grep=''`\n and read the related commits. If real work landed, complete the\n task with `--no-sha-check --summary 'Already done in '`.\n\n4. **Make sure your changes don't regress recent functionality.** Many\n agents have been working on this codebase. Before committing, run\n `git log --since='24 hours ago' -- ` to see what\n changed in your area, and verify you don't undo any of it.\n\n5. **Stay scoped.** Only do what this specific task asks for. Do not\n refactor, do not \"fix\" unrelated issues, do not add features that\n weren't requested. Scope creep at this point is regression risk.\n\nIf you cannot do this task safely (because it would regress, conflict\nwith current direction, or the requirements no longer apply), escalate\nvia `orchestra escalate` with a clear explanation instead of committing.\n","status":"done","priority":91,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-16T11:03:08.898038+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-16T11:03:08.898038+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"Already on main: e043b6f80 — token ledger with double-entry accounting implemented","completion_notes":"Commit e043b6f80 [Exchange] Token ledger with double-entry accounting [task:360e2578-061f-4dd2-962f-524c546d2804] is on origin/main. Verified: e043b6f80 is ancestor of origin/main. Work includes scidex/exchange/token_ledger.py (531 lines, ACID double-entry mint/burn/transfer), 8 API endpoints under /api/ledger/, token_accounts + token_ledger tables, and /exchange/ledger HTML dashboard. Branch differs from main only in .orchestra-slot.json (slot metadata, not code).","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/quest_capital_markets_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":"pass","verification_notes":"Already on main: e043b6f80 — token ledger with double-entry accounting implemented","task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"935a4841-ed85-4400-acfe-81aedaea7136","title":"[Exchange] Futarchy gating - market-ratified governance decisions","description":"Blocked: Requires extensive architectural work (new DB table/migration, futarchy.py + welfare_metrics.py modules, LMSR dependency not done, API routes/UI changes, complex test) — exceeds MiniMax agent scope. Needs Opus-level agent for this multi-file change. [task:935a4841-ed85-4400-acfe-81aedaea7136]","status":"done","priority":90,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-27T12:26:33.108857+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-27T12:26:33.108857+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"Task `935a4841-ed85-4400-acfe-81aedaea7136` closed as blocked with result=fail.","completion_notes":"Auto-release: non-recurring task produced no commits this iteration; requeuing for next cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/q-cap-futarchy-gating_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":"fail","verification_notes":"Blocked: prerequisite q-cap-lmsr-subsidy-decay not implemented. LMSR module (scidex/exchange/lmsr.py) doesn't exist on main, markets table missing q_yes/q_no columns needed for conditional markets. Futarchy gating also requires futarchy_gates table, futarchy.py, welfare_metrics.py, governance extension, UI changes, and API endpoint — all absent. Task exceeds MiniMax scope; needs Opus agent.","task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"exch-cm-02-EARN","title":"[Exchange] Token earning mechanics — mint on productive actions","description":"Earning rules for debate, hypothesis, evidence, extraction, KG edges, predictions; inflation management","status":"done","priority":90,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-26T00:05:20.873313+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-26T00:05:20.873313+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"[Exchange] Wire missing reward_action hooks for hypothesis, evidence, experiment_extraction [task:exch-cm-02-EARN]","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-02-EARN_token_earning_mechanics_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"989f2768-ba2c-4d0a-8d23-18896a29a6cc","title":"[Exchange] LMSR market-maker subsidies that decay with confidence","description":"Hanson LMSR with b(t)=b0*exp(-alpha*confidence); subsidy attracts traders early, retracts as market becomes efficient.","status":"done","priority":89,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-27T16:28:47.972361+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-27T16:28:47.972361+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"[Exchange] LMSR panel on market detail page — b, subsidy, price, decay bar [task:989f2768-ba2c-4d0a-8d23-18896a29a6cc]; [Core] Add lmsr_subsidy_exhausted to EVENT_TYPES [task:989f2768-ba2c-4d0a-8d23-18896a29a6cc]; [Exchange] LMSR market-maker with decaying subsidies [task:989f2768-ba2c-4d0a-8d23-18896a29a6cc]","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/q-cap-lmsr-subsidy-decay_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":"pass","verification_notes":"Already addressed: lmsr_subsidy_exhausted registered in EVENT_TYPES at line 51 of event_bus.py. Implementation complete: lmsr.py (539 lines), test_lmsr.py (26 tests all passing), migration applied. Prior rejection resolved.","task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"exch-cm-03-BID","title":"[Exchange] Bidding system — capital-backed positions on artifacts","description":"Long/short positions, bounties, LMSR cost for price impact, position tracking, demand signals","status":"done","priority":89,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-26T07:11:13.647217+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-26T07:11:13.647217+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"No commits on iteration 1/3; requeuing","completion_notes":"Auto-release: non-recurring task produced no commits this iteration; requeuing for next cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-03-BID_bidding_system_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":"pass","verification_notes":"Already resolved on current origin/main. Verified /api/market/bid returns 401 without Bearer auth, origin/main:api.py derives acting agents from API keys on all market write routes, and origin/main:scidex/exchange/market_bidding.py enforces helper ownership checks.","task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"exch-cm-04-BOOK","title":"[Exchange] Order book + LMSR market maker for artifact markets","description":"LMSR AMM providing continuous liquidity, market orders, limit orders, order matching","status":"done","priority":88,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-26T07:30:21.114478+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-26T07:30:21.114478+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"Blocked: worktree gitdir is read-only in this harness, so rebase/push cannot run after origin/main advanced by one commit. Current diff vs origin/main includes unintended deletions of AGENTS.md, README.md, systemd/README.md, backfill/backfill_debate_sessions.py, and docs/spec files, so shipping this branch would risk regressions.","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-04-BOOK_order_book_market_maker_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":"fail","verification_notes":"Blocked: worktree gitdir is read-only in this harness, so rebase/push cannot run after origin/main advanced by one commit. Current diff vs origin/main includes unintended deletions of AGENTS.md, README.md, systemd/README.md, backfill/backfill_debate_sessions.py, and docs/spec files, so shipping this branch would risk regressions.","task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"802ce337-bfb8-4809-a516-1fe0fe0997fc","title":"[Exchange] Portfolio margining - cross-collateralized agent positions","description":"SPAN-style covariance-weighted margin engine; long-A short-B at corr -0.9 frees ~80% of locked tokens.","status":"done","priority":87,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-27T16:17:19.737303+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-27T16:17:19.737303+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"[Exchange] SPAN portfolio margin engine — cross-collateralized positions [task:802ce337-bfb8-4809-a516-1fe0fe0997fc]","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/q-cap-portfolio-margining_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"exch-cm-05-PORT","title":"[Exchange] Portfolio management — track positions, P&L, exposure","description":"Mark-to-market P&L, exposure limits, diversification scoring, Sharpe ratio, leaderboard","status":"done","priority":87,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-26T03:09:11.405459+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-26T03:09:11.405459+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"[Exchange] Portfolio management — positions, P&L, exposure, Sharpe [task:exch-cm-05-PORT]","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-05-PORT_portfolio_management_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"6eed2942-5c3c-4e40-b72c-7958cc338b44","title":"[Exchange] Secondary markets - tradable shares of open questions","description":"Polymarket-style CLOB on fractionalised open-question shares; mid-price feeds back into ev_scorer priority weights.","status":"done","priority":86,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-27T22:48:33.686166+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-27T22:48:33.686166+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"[Exchange] Secondary market CLOB for tradable open-question shares; api.py [task:6eed2942-5c3c-4e40-b72c-7958cc338b44]","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/q-cap-secondary-market-shares_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"exch-cm-06-SETL","title":"[Exchange] Settlement mechanics — resolve positions on lifecycle events","description":"Auto-settle on lifecycle transitions, P&L distribution, frozen positions during challenges, AMM counterparty","status":"done","priority":86,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-26T05:41:31.611352+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-26T05:41:31.611352+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"[Verify] Settlement mechanics atomicity — already resolved on main [task:exch-cm-06-SETL]","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-06-SETL_settlement_mechanics_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":"pass","verification_notes":"Read api.py lines 24642–24727 on current main HEAD (ff976fda1). The lifecycle-transition handler performs: (1) UPDATE artifacts SET lifecycle_state, (2) INSERT artifact_lifecycle_history, (3) settle_artifact(resolved_id, new_state, db=db) — all three before db.commit(). Exception path calls db.rollback(). Comment at line 24702 explicitly states: 'same transaction so that a settlement failure rolls back the lifecycle state change atomically.' This matches the REVISE requirement exactly.","task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"exch-cm-07-RALL","title":"[Exchange] Capital-weighted resource allocation (demand to compute budget)","description":"Capital demand drives research resource allocation; bounties fund analysis; uncertainty multiplier","status":"done","priority":85,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-26T02:28:27.786459+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-26T02:28:27.786459+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"Already resolved on main: implementation (44c10e919) and spec (89a6c3edd) are live. resource_allocator.py, API route, and agent integration all verified present on origin/main. This worktree only contained the spec verification note; no additional code changes needed.","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-07-RALL_capital_weighted_resource_allocation_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"completion_shas\": [\"44c10e919\", \"89a6c3edd\", \"aaebe75c5\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"\"}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":"44c10e919","merge_verified_at":"2026-04-26T02:24:44.703005+00:00","verification_result":"pass","verification_notes":"Already resolved on main: implementation (44c10e919) and spec (89a6c3edd) are live. resource_allocator.py, API route, and agent integration all verified present on origin/main. This worktree only contained the spec verification note; no additional code changes needed.","task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[{"sha":"44c10e919","role":"merge_commit"}]},{"id":"e99b565b-1fb8-4965-844c-191b9eaa86e6","title":"[Exchange] Failed-prediction insurance pool with risk-priced premiums","description":"Insurance pool writes policies paying out on hypothesis falsification; premiums priced by LMSR implied tail prob plus markup.","status":"done","priority":84,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-28T01:11:59.772160+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-28T01:11:59.772160+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"[Exchange] Failed-prediction insurance pool with risk-priced premiums [task:e99b565b-1fb8-4965-844c-191b9eaa86e6]","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/q-cap-failed-prediction-insurance_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"cb868ac4-d5d0-4c7f-bd86-c78fb058ff8d","title":"[Exchange] Cross-market arbitrage detector triggering Senate review","description":"Nightly scan of primary/secondary/futarchy/insurance prices; persistent >700bps spreads escalate to Senate review.","status":"done","priority":83,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-28T01:16:14.951877+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-28T01:16:14.951877+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"[Exchange] Add arbitrage scanner tests; resolve scheduled_tasks conflict [task:cb868ac4-d5d0-4c7f-bd86-c78fb058ff8d]; [Exchange] Cross-market arbitrage detector triggering Senate review [task:cb868ac4-d5d0-4c7f-bd86-c78fb058ff8d]","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/q-cap-cross-market-arbitrage_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"exch-cm-01-LEDG","title":"[Exchange] Implement token ledger with double-entry accounting","description":"Foundation: token_ledger + token_accounts tables, transfer/mint/burn functions, balance enforcement, blockchain-compatible format\n\n\n## REOPENED TASK — CRITICAL CONTEXT\n\nThis task was previously marked 'done' but the audit could not verify\nthe work actually landed on main. The original work may have been:\n- Lost to an orphan branch / failed push\n- Only a spec-file edit (no code changes)\n- Already addressed by other agents in the meantime\n- Made obsolete by subsequent work\n\n**Before doing anything else:**\n\n1. **Re-evaluate the task in light of CURRENT main state.** Read the\n spec and the relevant files on origin/main NOW. The original task\n may have been written against a state of the code that no longer\n exists.\n\n2. **Verify the task still advances SciDEX's aims.** If the system\n has evolved past the need for this work (different architecture,\n different priorities), close the task with reason \"obsolete: \"\n instead of doing it.\n\n3. **Check if it's already done.** Run `git log --grep=''`\n and read the related commits. If real work landed, complete the\n task with `--no-sha-check --summary 'Already done in '`.\n\n4. **Make sure your changes don't regress recent functionality.** Many\n agents have been working on this codebase. Before committing, run\n `git log --since='24 hours ago' -- ` to see what\n changed in your area, and verify you don't undo any of it.\n\n5. **Stay scoped.** Only do what this specific task asks for. Do not\n refactor, do not \"fix\" unrelated issues, do not add features that\n weren't requested. Scope creep at this point is regression risk.\n\nIf you cannot do this task safely (because it would regress, conflict\nwith current direction, or the requirements no longer apply), escalate\nvia `orchestra escalate` with a clear explanation instead of committing.\n","status":"done","priority":83,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-19T05:00:23.874599+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-19T05:00:23.874599+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"Token ledger double-entry: all acceptance criteria verified on origin/main. Implementation in scidex/exchange/token_ledger.py (532 lines), 84 accounts, 22912 ledger entries, 7 API endpoints. Resolved by prior commits.","completion_notes":"Verify task: all acceptance criteria confirmed satisfied on origin/main (commit 700e194d0). token_ledger.py module with all 7 core functions present and tested. 84 accounts, 22912 ledger entries in production DB. API endpoints at lines 11512-11654 in api.py confirmed. Resolution via prior commits c90bb7ce1, 65be4f7ed, 8955a4b80.","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-01-LEDG_token_ledger_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"reasoning\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"700e194d0\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-19T05:00:23.852643+00:00\", \"_reset_note\": \"This task was reset after a database incident on 2026-04-17.\\n\\n**Context:** SciDEX migrated from SQLite to PostgreSQL after recurring DB\\ncorruption. Some work done during Apr 16-17 may have been lost.\\n\\n**Before starting work:**\\n1. Check if the task's goal is ALREADY satisfied (run the relevant checks)\\n2. Check `git log --all --grep=task:YOUR_TASK_ID` for prior commits\\n3. If complete, verify and mark done. If partial, continue. If not done, proceed.\\n\\n**DB change:** SciDEX now uses PostgreSQL. `get_db()` auto-detects via\\nSCIDEX_DB_BACKEND=postgres env var.\", \"_reset_at\": \"2026-04-18T06:29:22.046013+00:00\", \"_reset_from_status\": \"done\"}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":"pass","verification_notes":"Verified via: (1) git show origin/main:scidex/exchange/token_ledger.py confirmed all required functions; (2) sqlite3 main DB confirmed 84 accounts and 22912 ledger entries; (3) API endpoints confirmed at lines 11512-11654 on origin/main. No code changes needed.","task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"27ab4dc1-be34-48b6-8de4-bc4496e41c42","title":"[Exchange] Enrich metadata for 25 markets missing context JSON","description":"352 markets have empty metadata, which makes price interpretation and review routing harder.\n\n## Acceptance criteria\n\n- 25 markets gain non-empty metadata or explicit no-context rationale\n- Metadata links market semantics to entity, artifact, hypothesis, or resolution context\n- Remaining markets with empty metadata is <= 327\n\n## Approach\n\n1. Select active or high-volume markets with empty metadata.\n2. Infer context from entity_id/entity_name, linked hypotheses, trades, and market type.\n3. Persist minimal useful metadata and verify market pages/API responses.\n\nGenerated by the quest-engine low-queue cycle after live DB gap verification. Re-check for duplicate recent work before editing, and document any stronger framing you find.\n","status":"done","priority":80,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-27T01:21:09.378058+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-27T01:21:09.378058+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"Work completed by prior runs on this branch. Commits a3c976dba and 409110af5 (task branch) added scripts/enrich_market_metadata.py and enriched 25 NULL-metadata markets + 277 empty-metadata markets. Spec work log confirms: NULL metadata = 0, empty metadata = 0, acceptance criterion met (remaining ≤ 327 = 0). Bash tool was unavailable in this worker session (EROFS on session-env), preventing push; closing via no-sha-check with prior-commit evidence.","completion_notes":"Bash/shell unavailable due to EROFS on /home/ubuntu/Orchestra/data session-env dir. Prior commits on branch did the substantive work. DB enrichment confirmed in spec work log.","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/quest_engine_market_stale_update_audit_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"analysis\": 6, \"reasoning\": 5}}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"25913fcf-9d94-4b21-b186-1f3960c128ea","title":"[Exchange] Backfill scientific rationale for 20 active markets with sparse metadata","description":"Some active markets have sparse context even when entity fields exist, making prices hard to interpret for agents.\n\n## Acceptance criteria\n\n- 20 active markets gain concise scientific rationale metadata or documented deferral\n- Rationales link market semantics to entity, hypothesis, artifact, or evidence context\n- Updated metadata improves interpretability without changing price or resolution status\n\n## Approach\n\n1. Select active markets with empty/sparse metadata and low activity.\n2. Use entity_name, linked artifacts, hypotheses, and recent evidence to draft concise rationale.\n3. Persist metadata-only updates and verify API/page rendering.\n\nGenerated by the quest-engine low-queue cycle from live DB gap checks; avoid placeholder content and document no-op decisions when evidence is insufficient.\n","status":"done","priority":79,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-28T01:47:20.082535+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-28T01:47:20.082535+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"[Exchange] Spec: document scientific rationale backfill for 20 markets [task:25913fcf-9d94-4b21-b186-1f3960c128ea]; [Exchange] Add scientific rationale enrichment script for 20 markets [task:25913fcf-9d94-4b21-b186-1f3960c128ea]","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/quest_engine_market_stale_update_audit_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"analysis\": 6, \"reasoning\": 5}}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":null,"verification_notes":null,"task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]},{"id":"exch-cm-08-BRGE","title":"[Exchange] Blockchain bridge prep — ledger compatible with on-chain migration","description":"Audit ledger schema vs EVM txn model, address derivation, export/import roundtrip, chain evaluation","status":"done","priority":75,"frequency":"","max_iterations":null,"assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-26T05:56:11.160133+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-26T05:56:11.160133+00:00","summary":"","completion_summary":"No commits on iteration 1/3; requeuing","completion_notes":"Auto-release: non-recurring task produced no commits this iteration; requeuing for next cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-08-BRGE_blockchain_bridge_prep_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 8, \"safety\": 9}}","pr_links_json":"[]","commit_links_json":"[]","merge_commit_sha":null,"merge_verified_at":null,"verification_result":"pass","verification_notes":"Verified on current main-descended worktree HEAD 805d02ae0. Runtime checks: agent_id_to_address('theorist','base') returned a deterministic EVM address; ledger_chain_compatibility_report() returned 10 field mappings and marked ethereum/base/arbitrum fully compatible and solana incompatible; test_export_import_roundtrip() returned success=true with transfers_exported=5, missing_transactions=[], duplicates_skipped=5.","task_type":"one_shot","pr_links":[],"commit_links":[]}],"reviews":[],"effectiveness":{},"prs":[],"commits":[{"hash":"44c10e919","message":"Already resolved on main: implementation (44c10e919) and spec (89a6c3edd) are live. resource_allocator.py, API route, and agent integration all verified present on origin/main. This worktree only contained the spec verification note; no additional code changes needed.","date":"2026-04-26","role":"merge_commit","url":"https://github.com/SciDEX-AI/SciDEX/commit/44c10e919","task_id":"exch-cm-07-RALL","task_title":"[Exchange] Capital-weighted resource allocation (demand to compute budget)"}],"spec_content":"---\ntitle: \"Quest: Capital Markets & Allocation\"\ndescription: \"Virtual token economy with bidding, portfolios, settlement, and capital-weighted resource allocation — simulating blockchain dynamics until crypto migration\"\ntype: quest\nlayer: Exchange\npriority: 91\nstatus: active\nquest_id: q-capital-markets\nspec_path: docs/planning/specs/quest_capital_markets_spec.md\n---\n\n# Quest: Capital Markets & Allocation\n\n**Layer:** Exchange\n**Priority:** P91\n**Status:** active\n\n## Vision\n\nSciDEX needs a real capital allocation mechanism where agents **put resources behind their\nbeliefs**. Today, market prices are set by automated score updates — no agent has skin in the\ngame. Allocation weights exist but aren't backed by scarce capital. Challenge bounties are\ndenominated in USD but never spent.\n\nThis quest builds a **virtual token economy** that simulates blockchain-based capital markets:\n\n1. **Agents earn tokens** through productive work (debates, evidence, discoveries)\n2. **Agents bid tokens** on artifacts they believe are valuable\n3. **Prices emerge** from aggregate demand (capital-weighted, not just score-weighted)\n4. **Positions settle** when artifacts are validated or deprecated\n5. **Returns compound** — accurate assessors earn more, grow their capital, gain influence\n6. **Resources follow capital** — high-demand artifacts get more compute, debate time, analysis\n\nThe system uses a **double-entry ledger** designed for eventual crypto migration. Every\ntransaction records sender, receiver, amount, and reason — the same data model that maps\nto on-chain transactions when we move to blockchain.\n\n### Why Simulated First\n\nMoving to crypto before we understand the dynamics would be premature:\n- Token earning rates need calibration (are we inflating too fast? too slow?)\n- Bidding mechanics need tuning (does LMSR provide enough liquidity?)\n- Settlement rules need validation (when exactly does a position resolve?)\n- Capital concentration needs monitoring (is one agent cornering the market?)\n\nSimulation lets us observe these dynamics, tune parameters, and validate incentive alignment\nbefore committing to an irreversible blockchain deployment.\n\n### The Capital Flow\n\n```\n ┌──────────────┐\n │ TOKEN │\n │ MINTING │\n │ (earned via │\n │ work) │\n └──────┬───────┘\n │\n ┌──────▼───────┐\n │ AGENT │\n │ WALLET │◄─── Settlement returns\n │ (balance) │\n └──────┬───────┘\n │\n ┌────────────┼────────────┐\n │ │ │\n ┌──────▼──┐ ┌──────▼──┐ ┌──────▼──┐\n │ BID ON │ │ STAKE │ │ COMPUTE │\n │ ARTIFACT │ │ ON │ │ BUDGET │\n │ (market) │ │ QUALITY │ │ (fund │\n │ │ │ (reptn) │ │ research)│\n └──────┬───┘ └──────┬──┘ └────┬────┘\n │ │ │\n ┌──────▼──┐ ┌─────▼───┐ ┌────▼────┐\n │ POSITION │ │ STAKE │ │ ANALYSIS│\n │ (long/ │ │ OUTCOME │ │ RESULT │\n │ short) │ │ (gain/ │ │ (asset) │\n └──────┬──┘ │ loss) │ └─────────┘\n │ └────┬────┘\n │ │\n ┌──────▼───────────▼───┐\n │ SETTLEMENT │\n │ (lifecycle event │\n │ resolves positions │\n │ and stakes) │\n └──────────────────────┘\n```\n\n### Token Economics\n\n**Earning** (minting new tokens via productive work):\n| Action | Base Tokens | Multiplier |\n|--------|-------------|------------|\n| Debate participation (per round) | 10 | x quality_score |\n| Hypothesis generation | 25 | x composite_score |\n| Evidence contribution | 5 | x 1.5 if contradicting |\n| Experiment extraction | 15 | x extraction_confidence |\n| KG edge creation | 3 | x evidence_strength |\n| Correct market prediction | 50 | x price_delta |\n| Knowledge gap resolved | 30 | x priority_score |\n\n**Spending** (destroying/transferring tokens):\n| Action | Cost |\n|--------|------|\n| Market bid (artifact position) | Variable (LMSR cost function) |\n| Quality stake (reputation bet) | 1-10% of balance |\n| Compute allocation (fund analysis) | 10 tokens / 1K LLM tokens |\n| Priority boost (expedite task) | 50 tokens |\n| Bounty on knowledge gap | 20+ tokens (agent-set) |\n\n**Initial Endowment**: New agents start with 1,000 tokens to enable immediate participation.\n\n### First-Mover Bonuses\n\nFirst-movers earn multiplied rewards. Being first to propose, analyze, or review is riskier\n(no prior signal to follow) and should be compensated:\n\n| First To... | Bonus Multiplier | Example |\n|-------------|-----------------|---------|\n| Propose a novel hypothesis | 3x base earning | First to suggest TREM2-microglia link: 75 tokens vs 25 |\n| Run an analysis on a topic | 2x base earning | First analysis of a new pathway: 30 tokens vs 15 |\n| Review/debate an artifact | 2x base earning | First debate on a new hypothesis: 20 tokens vs 10 |\n| Provide key evidence | 2x base earning | First PMID linking claim to data: 10 tokens vs 5 |\n\nSimilarity detection prevents claiming first-mover on near-duplicate ideas. Embedding distance\n> 0.85 to an existing artifact means the original creator retains the first-mover credit.\n\n### Royalty Streams (Compounding Returns)\n\nWhen downstream work cites or builds on an artifact, a royalty flows to the original creator:\n\n```\nRoyalty = downstream_tokens_earned × royalty_rate × depth_decay\n where royalty_rate = 0.15 (15%)\n where depth_decay = 0.33^(depth-1) (15% to parent, 5% to grandparent, ~1.7% to great-grandparent)\n```\n\nTracked via `artifact_links` provenance graph. Royalties are recorded in the token ledger\nwith `reason='royalty'` and `reference_id` pointing to the downstream artifact.\n\nThis creates compound returns: a foundational contribution that spawns many downstream\nartifacts generates continuous token income — like a viral video generating ad revenue.\nThe incentive is to produce high-quality, foundational work rather than volume.\n\n### Value Assessment Agents\n\nDedicated assessor agents review contributions and award bonus credits:\n\n- **Post-debate assessment**: After a debate round, an assessor reviews the transcript and\n awards bonus tokens to the most impactful contributions\n- **Periodic milestone review**: Assessors check artifacts at 1 week, 1 month, 3 months —\n awarding milestone bonuses when thresholds are crossed (top 10%, 10+ citations, etc.)\n- **Discovery credits**: Auditors who catch errors or raise valid challenges earn tokens\n proportional to the impact of their discovery\n- Assessor accuracy is tracked — assessors whose ratings align with market outcomes build\n higher believability, giving their future assessments more weight\n\n## Open Tasks\n\n- [x] exch-cm-01-LEDG: Implement token ledger with double-entry accounting (P91)\n- [ ] exch-cm-02-EARN: Token earning mechanics — mint on productive actions (P90)\n- [ ] exch-cm-03-BID: Bidding system — capital-backed positions on artifacts (P89)\n- [ ] exch-cm-04-BOOK: Order book + LMSR market maker for artifact markets (P88)\n- [ ] exch-cm-05-PORT: Portfolio management — track positions, P&L, exposure (P87)\n- [ ] exch-cm-06-SETL: Settlement mechanics — resolve positions on lifecycle events (P86)\n- [ ] exch-cm-07-RALL: Capital-weighted resource allocation (demand → compute budget) (P85)\n- [ ] exch-cm-08-BRGE: Blockchain bridge prep — ledger format compatible with on-chain migration (P83)\n\n## Dependency Chain\n\n```\nexch-cm-01-LEDG (Token ledger)\n ↓\nexch-cm-02-EARN (Earning mechanics) ──→ exch-cm-08-BRGE (Blockchain bridge)\n ↓\nexch-cm-03-BID (Bidding system)\n ↓\nexch-cm-04-BOOK (Order book / LMSR) ──→ exch-cm-05-PORT (Portfolio mgmt)\n ↓ ↓\nexch-cm-06-SETL (Settlement) exch-cm-07-RALL (Resource allocation)\n```\n\n## Integration Points\n\n- **Artifact Quality Markets** (q-artifact-quality-markets): Market prices from quality\n markets become the basis for capital-backed positions\n- **Market Participants** (q-market-participants): Participant agents use capital to express\n their evaluations — replaces score-only signals with capital-backed signals\n- **Crypto Wallets** (q-crypto-wallets): Token ledger is the simulation layer that migrates\n to on-chain wallets\n- **Economics** (q-economics): Token economics provides the monetary framework\n- **Reputation Staking** (exch-qm-04-STAK): Staking uses tokens from the ledger, not just\n abstract believability points\n- **Senate Proposals** (`senate_proposals.py`): Allocation proposals backed by actual token\n budgets instead of hypothetical amounts\n- **Resource Tracker** (`resource_tracker.py`): Compute costs denominated in tokens\n\n## Relationship to Existing Quests\n\n| Existing Quest | Relationship |\n|---------------|-------------|\n| **Market Participants** (P80) | Absorbed — participant agents use capital from this system |\n| **Crypto Wallets** (P75) | Downstream — this builds the simulation layer; crypto is the migration |\n| **Economics** (P70) | Extended — token economics operationalizes the economics framework |\n| **Artifact Quality Markets** (P92) | Complementary — quality prices are what agents bid on |\n| **Reputation Staking** (exch-qm-04-STAK) | Enhanced — staking uses real tokens, not just points |\n\n## Success Criteria\n\n- [ ] Token ledger operational with double-entry accounting (no balance ever goes negative)\n- [ ] Agents earn tokens from at least 5 productive action types\n- [ ] Agents can place capital-backed bids on artifacts\n- [ ] LMSR market maker provides continuous liquidity for all listed artifacts\n- [ ] Portfolio tracking shows P&L, exposure, and Sharpe-like ratio per agent\n- [ ] Settlement resolves >90% of positions within 24h of lifecycle transition\n- [ ] Capital-weighted allocation demonstrably directs compute to high-demand areas\n- [ ] Ledger format validated as compatible with EVM-style transaction model\n\n## Work Log\n\n### 2026-04-06 — exch-cm-01-LEDG: Token ledger with double-entry accounting\n\n**Implemented:**\n\n- **`token_ledger.py`** — core double-entry accounting module:\n - `create_account(agent_id, initial_balance)` — initialize agent wallet (1000 tokens default)\n - `transfer(from_id, to_id, amount, reason, ...)` — atomic double-entry transfer; `from_account='system'` = mint, `to_account='system'` = burn; BEGIN IMMEDIATE for ACID guarantees; balance never goes negative\n - `mint(to_id, amount, reason, ...)` — convenience wrapper for system → account\n - `burn(from_id, amount, reason, ...)` — convenience wrapper for account → system\n - `get_balance(agent_id)` — current balance query\n - `get_account(agent_id)` — full account details (balance, total_earned, total_spent, total_staked)\n - `get_statement(agent_id, since, limit)` — transaction history, ordered newest first\n - `get_total_supply()` — economy-wide stats: supply, minted, burned, avg balance, top holders\n - `seed_initial_accounts()` — seeds all agents from `actor_reputation` + standard personas with 1000 tokens (idempotent)\n - `ensure_schema()` — creates tables on import (idempotent)\n - DB path resolved via `os.path.abspath(__file__)` — works from any working directory\n\n- **`api.py` — startup schema** — `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS token_accounts` and `token_ledger` added to startup init block for fresh-deploy idempotency\n\n- **`api.py` — REST API** (7 new endpoints under `/api/ledger/`):\n - `GET /api/ledger/supply` — total supply stats\n - `GET /api/ledger/accounts/{id}` — account balance and details\n - `POST /api/ledger/accounts/{id}` — create account\n - `GET /api/ledger/accounts/{id}/statement` — transaction history\n - `POST /api/ledger/mint` — mint tokens\n - `POST /api/ledger/burn` — burn tokens\n - `POST /api/ledger/transfer` — transfer with double-entry\n - `POST /api/ledger/seed` — seed all agents\n\n- **`GET /exchange/ledger`** — dashboard page showing:\n - Supply stats (total, accounts, minted, burned, avg balance, tx count)\n - Accounts table (balance, earned, spent, staked)\n - Reason breakdown (mint/earn/spend paths)\n - Recent transactions with type badges (MINT/BURN/XFER) and balance-after columns\n\n**Verified:** Functional tests confirm mint → transfer → burn → balance consistency with ACID double-entry semantics.\n","spec_html":"

Quest: Capital Markets & Allocation

Layer: Exchange\nPriority: P91\nStatus: active

Vision

SciDEX needs a real capital allocation mechanism where agents **put resources behind their
beliefs**. Today, market prices are set by automated score updates — no agent has skin in the
game. Allocation weights exist but aren't backed by scarce capital. Challenge bounties are
denominated in USD but never spent.

This quest builds a virtual token economy that simulates blockchain-based capital markets:

  • Agents earn tokens through productive work (debates, evidence, discoveries)
    • \n
  • Agents bid tokens on artifacts they believe are valuable
    • \n
  • Prices emerge from aggregate demand (capital-weighted, not just score-weighted)
    • \n
  • Positions settle when artifacts are validated or deprecated
    • \n
  • Returns compound — accurate assessors earn more, grow their capital, gain influence
    • \n
  • Resources follow capital — high-demand artifacts get more compute, debate time, analysis

    • The system uses a double-entry ledger designed for eventual crypto migration. Every
    transaction records sender, receiver, amount, and reason — the same data model that maps
    to on-chain transactions when we move to blockchain.

    Why Simulated First

    Moving to crypto before we understand the dynamics would be premature:\n

    • Token earning rates need calibration (are we inflating too fast? too slow?)
      • \n
    • Bidding mechanics need tuning (does LMSR provide enough liquidity?)
      • \n
    • Settlement rules need validation (when exactly does a position resolve?)
      • \n
    • Capital concentration needs monitoring (is one agent cornering the market?)
      • \n

    Simulation lets us observe these dynamics, tune parameters, and validate incentive alignment
    before committing to an irreversible blockchain deployment.

    The Capital Flow

    ┌──────────────┐\n                    │   TOKEN      │\n                    │   MINTING    │\n                    │  (earned via │\n                    │   work)      │\n                    └──────┬───────┘\n                           │\n                    ┌──────▼───────┐\n                    │   AGENT      │\n                    │   WALLET     │◄─── Settlement returns\n                    │  (balance)   │\n                    └──────┬───────┘\n                           │\n              ┌────────────┼────────────┐\n              │            │            │\n       ┌──────▼──┐  ┌──────▼──┐  ┌──────▼──┐\n       │  BID ON  │  │  STAKE  │  │ COMPUTE │\n       │ ARTIFACT │  │   ON    │  │ BUDGET  │\n       │ (market) │  │ QUALITY │  │ (fund   │\n       │          │  │ (reptn) │  │ research)│\n       └──────┬───┘  └──────┬──┘  └────┬────┘\n              │             │           │\n       ┌──────▼──┐   ┌─────▼───┐  ┌────▼────┐\n       │ POSITION │   │ STAKE   │  │ ANALYSIS│\n       │ (long/  │   │ OUTCOME │  │ RESULT  │\n       │  short) │   │ (gain/  │  │ (asset) │\n       └──────┬──┘   │  loss)  │  └─────────┘\n              │      └────┬────┘\n              │           │\n       ┌──────▼───────────▼───┐\n       │    SETTLEMENT        │\n       │  (lifecycle event    │\n       │   resolves positions │\n       │   and stakes)        │\n       └──────────────────────┘

    Token Economics

    Earning (minting new tokens via productive work):\n
    ActionBase TokensMultiplier
    Debate participation (per round)10x quality_score
    Hypothesis generation25x composite_score
    Evidence contribution5x 1.5 if contradicting
    Experiment extraction15x extraction_confidence
    KG edge creation3x evidence_strength
    Correct market prediction50x price_delta
    Knowledge gap resolved30x priority_score
    \nSpending (destroying/transferring tokens):\n
    ActionCost
    Market bid (artifact position)Variable (LMSR cost function)
    Quality stake (reputation bet)1-10% of balance
    Compute allocation (fund analysis)10 tokens / 1K LLM tokens
    Priority boost (expedite task)50 tokens
    Bounty on knowledge gap20+ tokens (agent-set)
    \nInitial Endowment: New agents start with 1,000 tokens to enable immediate participation.

    First-Mover Bonuses

    First-movers earn multiplied rewards. Being first to propose, analyze, or review is riskier
    (no prior signal to follow) and should be compensated:

    First To...Bonus MultiplierExample
    Propose a novel hypothesis3x base earningFirst to suggest TREM2-microglia link: 75 tokens vs 25
    Run an analysis on a topic2x base earningFirst analysis of a new pathway: 30 tokens vs 15
    Review/debate an artifact2x base earningFirst debate on a new hypothesis: 20 tokens vs 10
    Provide key evidence2x base earningFirst PMID linking claim to data: 10 tokens vs 5
    \nSimilarity detection prevents claiming first-mover on near-duplicate ideas. Embedding distance
    > 0.85 to an existing artifact means the original creator retains the first-mover credit.

    Royalty Streams (Compounding Returns)

    When downstream work cites or builds on an artifact, a royalty flows to the original creator:

    Royalty = downstream_tokens_earned × royalty_rate × depth_decay\n  where royalty_rate = 0.15 (15%)\n  where depth_decay = 0.33^(depth-1)  (15% to parent, 5% to grandparent, ~1.7% to great-grandparent)

    Tracked via artifact_links provenance graph. Royalties are recorded in the token ledger
    with reason='royalty' and reference_id pointing to the downstream artifact.

    This creates compound returns: a foundational contribution that spawns many downstream
    artifacts generates continuous token income — like a viral video generating ad revenue.
    The incentive is to produce high-quality, foundational work rather than volume.

    Value Assessment Agents

    Dedicated assessor agents review contributions and award bonus credits:

    • Post-debate assessment: After a debate round, an assessor reviews the transcript and
      • \n
    awards bonus tokens to the most impactful contributions\n
    • Periodic milestone review: Assessors check artifacts at 1 week, 1 month, 3 months —
      • \n
    awarding milestone bonuses when thresholds are crossed (top 10%, 10+ citations, etc.)\n
    • Discovery credits: Auditors who catch errors or raise valid challenges earn tokens
      • \n
    proportional to the impact of their discovery\n
    • Assessor accuracy is tracked — assessors whose ratings align with market outcomes build
      • \n
    higher believability, giving their future assessments more weight

    Open Tasks

    ☑ exch-cm-01-LEDG: Implement token ledger with double-entry accounting (P91)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-02-EARN: Token earning mechanics — mint on productive actions (P90)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-03-BID: Bidding system — capital-backed positions on artifacts (P89)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-04-BOOK: Order book + LMSR market maker for artifact markets (P88)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-05-PORT: Portfolio management — track positions, P&L, exposure (P87)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-06-SETL: Settlement mechanics — resolve positions on lifecycle events (P86)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-07-RALL: Capital-weighted resource allocation (demand → compute budget) (P85)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-08-BRGE: Blockchain bridge prep — ledger format compatible with on-chain migration (P83)

    Dependency Chain

    exch-cm-01-LEDG (Token ledger)\n    ↓\nexch-cm-02-EARN (Earning mechanics) ──→ exch-cm-08-BRGE (Blockchain bridge)\n    ↓\nexch-cm-03-BID (Bidding system)\n    ↓\nexch-cm-04-BOOK (Order book / LMSR) ──→ exch-cm-05-PORT (Portfolio mgmt)\n    ↓                                           ↓\nexch-cm-06-SETL (Settlement)            exch-cm-07-RALL (Resource allocation)

    Integration Points

    • Artifact Quality Markets (q-artifact-quality-markets): Market prices from quality
      • \n
    markets become the basis for capital-backed positions\n
    • Market Participants (q-market-participants): Participant agents use capital to express
      • \n
    their evaluations — replaces score-only signals with capital-backed signals\n
    • Crypto Wallets (q-crypto-wallets): Token ledger is the simulation layer that migrates
      • \n
    to on-chain wallets\n
    • Economics (q-economics): Token economics provides the monetary framework
      • \n
    • Reputation Staking (exch-qm-04-STAK): Staking uses tokens from the ledger, not just
      • \n
    abstract believability points\n
    • Senate Proposals (senate_proposals.py): Allocation proposals backed by actual token
      • \n
    budgets instead of hypothetical amounts\n
    • Resource Tracker (resource_tracker.py): Compute costs denominated in tokens
      • \n
    \n

    Relationship to Existing Quests

    Existing QuestRelationship
    Market Participants (P80)Absorbed — participant agents use capital from this system
    Crypto Wallets (P75)Downstream — this builds the simulation layer; crypto is the migration
    Economics (P70)Extended — token economics operationalizes the economics framework
    Artifact Quality Markets (P92)Complementary — quality prices are what agents bid on
    Reputation Staking (exch-qm-04-STAK)Enhanced — staking uses real tokens, not just points
    \n

    Success Criteria

    ☐ Token ledger operational with double-entry accounting (no balance ever goes negative)
    \n
    ☐ Agents earn tokens from at least 5 productive action types
    \n
    ☐ Agents can place capital-backed bids on artifacts
    \n
    ☐ LMSR market maker provides continuous liquidity for all listed artifacts
    \n
    ☐ Portfolio tracking shows P&L, exposure, and Sharpe-like ratio per agent
    \n
    ☐ Settlement resolves >90% of positions within 24h of lifecycle transition
    \n
    ☐ Capital-weighted allocation demonstrably directs compute to high-demand areas
    \n
    ☐ Ledger format validated as compatible with EVM-style transaction model

    Work Log

    2026-04-06 — exch-cm-01-LEDG: Token ledger with double-entry accounting

    Implemented:

    • token_ledger.py — core double-entry accounting module:
      • \n
    - create_account(agent_id, initial_balance) — initialize agent wallet (1000 tokens default)
    - transfer(from_id, to_id, amount, reason, ...) — atomic double-entry transfer; from_account='system' = mint, to_account='system' = burn; BEGIN IMMEDIATE for ACID guarantees; balance never goes negative
    - mint(to_id, amount, reason, ...) — convenience wrapper for system → account
    - burn(from_id, amount, reason, ...) — convenience wrapper for account → system
    - get_balance(agent_id) — current balance query
    - get_account(agent_id) — full account details (balance, total_earned, total_spent, total_staked)
    - get_statement(agent_id, since, limit) — transaction history, ordered newest first
    - get_total_supply() — economy-wide stats: supply, minted, burned, avg balance, top holders
    - seed_initial_accounts() — seeds all agents from actor_reputation + standard personas with 1000 tokens (idempotent)
    - ensure_schema() — creates tables on import (idempotent)
    - DB path resolved via os.path.abspath(__file__) — works from any working directory

    • api.py — startup schema — CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS token_accounts and token_ledger added to startup init block for fresh-deploy idempotency
      • \n
    \n
    • api.py — REST API (7 new endpoints under /api/ledger/):
      • \n
    - GET /api/ledger/supply — total supply stats
    - GET /api/ledger/accounts/{id} — account balance and details
    - POST /api/ledger/accounts/{id} — create account
    - GET /api/ledger/accounts/{id}/statement — transaction history
    - POST /api/ledger/mint — mint tokens
    - POST /api/ledger/burn — burn tokens
    - POST /api/ledger/transfer — transfer with double-entry
    - POST /api/ledger/seed — seed all agents

    • GET /exchange/ledger — dashboard page showing:
      • \n
    - Supply stats (total, accounts, minted, burned, avg balance, tx count)
    - Accounts table (balance, earned, spent, staked)
    - Reason breakdown (mint/earn/spend paths)
    - Recent transactions with type badges (MINT/BURN/XFER) and balance-after columns

    Verified: Functional tests confirm mint → transfer → burn → balance consistency with ACID double-entry semantics.

    ","spec_file":"quest_capital_markets_spec.md"}