{"quest":{"id":"q-capital-markets","name":"Capital Markets","description":"Virtual token economy with bidding, portfolios, settlement, and capital-weighted resource allocation — simulating blockchain","layer":"Exchange","priority":77,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-04-03 23:52:09","updated_at":"2026-04-10T14:44:10.355870+00:00"},"tasks":[{"id":"e240778b-1a93-4610-a88c-4cfe951d326e","title":"[Exchange] Multi-agent market order driver (driver #3)","description":"Recurring driver. Pick 5-10 agents from agent_registry whose token_account balance > 100, evaluate the top 20 active markets by volume, and place real market_orders matching each agent's persona/risk profile (use existing market_participants.evaluate() pipeline). Target: 30+ orders per cycle, 50+ orders/day across 10+ distinct agents. On no candidates, release as no-op. See driver #3.","status":"open","priority":95,"task_type":"recurring","frequency":"every-2h","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T20:08:17.977779+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T20:08:17.977779+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_participation_drivers_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"7e6bef0e00f0c480a7da1f07312cfbca9c4fe056\", \"a2a4b30fb77eea1f0367cbd2f6cad0cfb3a2feb8\", \"e78979bc185cb8229594ae6ae9c0db2b55df2c3f\", \"c22e4bb7a3bd82a9c1cd2b2e135778d21f947a70\", \"8c1ebd85f35c1af0b944c98e7992e7c575ed3c96\", \"2027433091aab0c0b6d11d66d46266866d1de695\", \"0c41ebd823858305c2aae127dc396cfeff6d3ce2\", \"4829f14d17b080c66bf28f0acf6136f4171149ea\", \"b837e7485f36bf55bf2e6154fc934594af5950ac\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-13T04:26:49.221542+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"f0eae7d70d0134c04c8aa228a5224b6fba7103bd\", \"b6109acde95e661ee38f03abb4cc4dbf90ef8633\", \"2ef9610423bcec9db0e1457b4cddc4193642bad3\", \"682a1faeee512dd7c95465a6ea6d25f7be846104\", \"12f2cc04dafbe81860e7d9a03afb5afd8ee1d868\", \"082e23a247e2a50ed62e95b19cd05223b310a067\", \"e8341c84f15367a44db90822a92148e9463016e9\", \"df4f80aeac5718e309e5efb29bccc585d8f067a0\", \"9ec5edd7a6503b327b267c4b0eb095065899a0d8\", \"d5a94dc95302dde33d23326dba933e671d3c66d0\", \"e7b73b1064b8d945a5a056d33a912e0112ac73c1\", \"dd2d9b25a0d408772d3494b48a5fff643566f587\", \"da9f463f91e0c1b89afe0a86cd4934bcec33b04f\", \"b02c934838e47a4a468c8472a22e32d25a3ac997\", \"c8418cacba78ee7ccdac5aec3e6a1460a6c8d467\", \"f10434e20baa01d6acb2cf2ca95076a47025a73f\", \"88ed06433341c4919fd6f6b529a226bae5964b93\", \"61df9879152324c76b9da7790458b43d2a18c9fd\", \"9f5ced8fe849102fc845864efc512629a848ad8e\", \"9f969b13c1478cb74ea6b67b60edb9295e6dcdae\", \"811d7a5e6e638debe7b5043642f4a3f4fb348d86\", \"4f50f40c03e3bec627f59fe8ba1ab7c9124756da\", \"3c2d4a7e3d971cf8b29fa4754632ebe8e6535e8f\", \"fe9e435e4647f0f598f3f1a1ad665ecd27cf82ee\", \"3920ff2d9dcc7ffa8ee953468fd6f44b047cc883\", \"97add928b85f031fe1e69802f251b8b2b0805147\", \"3907b46df149a290c5147e33317dec4a9338cd8f\", \"c084ec29a3815a0db55d09b40e848ed6bd94ed06\", \"77bfa76c68b2f3f9c3af7b235fd0868f37eeb692\", \"11180d45ffce2dc4766ff25441075bd4e5414dac\", \"346c550dacca6f2cd786dcd36e06c245f6e3119a\", \"5ac52faa81ec265d2e137f958ab948a6a6902aa2\", \"f984312d0b288065e3c20b9f797391bf19f0447b\", \"e4c265e7d599dd9a3ffcbeb2c501a1ab23d7daf9\", \"cb6501d6ee4b876694ab7efbc40a7c4a859cebeb\", \"08eb3d6cc51ad904ae9ced8ff3b176993c860442\", \"36eb3b4dc1a9425be6bb3216b347ac22c4053e7c\", \"3d4bebb4ec6beb8c7b34abe5db756225e50fc5d9\", \"382b6872447dcc98e983bf5dfd40f73114589023\", \"5d1c70ee55434b098bcb89472dfabd476b9ce71f\"]}"},{"id":"f4014150-c6f4-4de8-9c2d-ddfbe1b36fcf","title":"[Exchange] Discovery dividend backprop credit (driver #14)","description":"Recurring driver. For every world_model_improvements row with payout_status='pending', walk the provenance DAG backward (knowledge_gap ← analysis ← hypothesis ← debate_session ← agent), run a 3-hop personalized PageRank-style backprop with damping=0.85, distribute the payout pool to upstream agents proportional to their stationary mass. Idempotent: marks improvement 'distributed' on success, 'orphan' if no upstream agents found. See economics_v2_credit_backprop_spec.md driver #14.","status":"open","priority":95,"task_type":"recurring","frequency":"every-6h","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T16:00:50.605699+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T16:00:50.605699+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_v2_credit_backprop_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 7, \"reasoning\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"2528e390bd84bfd946621a25184f6dc17438c2f9\", \"f40121c3dca7d006331d84011463ddf7561caf06\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-12T22:04:03.935607+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"5d12e0a5dcb097ce05da636384d1ba6f55a15302\", \"ac98833af630c7d24192f1b5748395c0eb40a060\", \"a2957c5ef420ce9c7c4598b70223879c3fcf50ca\", \"e1b239b2b351de0de5a98fccca6102fb2a6f42b0\", \"269947514a8c371e89de3ddcd300b6cde6a72ee1\", \"72a82dd5d3fe919d14a87a67a5608543dded8a6f\", \"2c349aaf0e9e1e61f1652975671d3892eff7c11d\", \"52c3b1aa35f54c6b358da71e73231887051cddbd\", \"5faf8dfd0bfe9fa85fc6b58b90c2ef07c3c79a2f\", \"9a97a49160df954058ce20f88c8c058c488671a1\", \"2bab255a5c38eddf27b7cd0ab5d544a62ce4031d\", \"900b63d4030a5a8ec112c4dbb8781fe3acd15606\", \"7cebfc1c272de71666bc2caedd9421d44a34530c\", \"c11121b483396493fce08c6f00450d9a118c24b7\", \"8c14fe5f982bbdb8b5068c5407df1ac0ddf57ad4\", \"670183fde7c1250d010f839643ff039e7aedff35\", \"6984fe4b6b05ea5339aec93b9a005890ea65a7ce\", \"08b757b49619107ae0d4ddea85731fa1a514671c\", \"379b01311cd25f7f4b4a01fac5d770f816387b3c\", \"ed9c667aa168fbe396150eeffb99830498290be5\", \"7ff95c157815bd1003132189d781c7acc86a114c\", \"53ff68e11914cfe77aa2f8783cbb8e05ee0fbeeb\", \"05160ba8f3e1eb332923d12f7b997f2ea06e47a5\", \"717902c5be4072ea3f1cecc64a1578869e6e4ca6\", \"e091f61d8773346d1f6e5b18a4fc7830786eeff8\", \"e6a42d0d23de86536d17ec9e816a612a62337e8d\", \"72cd036fcc13ea69dddc846f6262a090c0371eb7\", \"ed0516480b23be99e9e8761ac177a0a7cb1addbf\", \"eaf8d112f11c3903029ac240b0a6e070b73edef7\", \"a76176ed9b2ea828d06a4f3706728a75cf440ecf\", \"78dd42adb74deaa3396c85f13bca4f449c1c1f65\", \"b68a7d6d2f971c34be3a078e8e9f40f8bbab37df\", \"5c314d3dfb2e20b89c7a445367f2c0772416adc6\", \"0f14a448a9eb6b6b0d5059c4fe9b3227ddc25479\", \"09b7e70cefc53b5200befa892686304fd4b653fd\", \"d480372492ca170ae4009533a07071634a61f245\", \"2456c49f6c643277aee07677f7be0c4d1b470299\", \"99e6ace3c7a41f6defe4a00f6732da31dbfa567b\", \"07f7e81adafcc14ffd2b8c132a72057ce8dc9640\", \"e029717b1a2ac25c10f5b0bafd742d3a8c06d9db\", \"cb39c21dcdfc9b30286ac42e12545a2b71d8283a\", \"f4b0f7b14db74b79f1dddfb08f8cc09cb7d76e2c\", \"cd332482290aaaf56914def5a2f9ac5f6f72ff09\", \"16396900a3437eeafa8cc0de173f5b26ac336017\", \"801dd9a5712b0c410521c06458059871c2c6426f\", \"45e14e210c6a9b248b06c1aabe5a1a10392514e2\", \"d63b3ede81ec8c960a4362b1d4ca340e513e9399\", \"63ec8b3a107f0e5640000b2e71a69de1d9c7ee0c\", \"eed3b2401dff5231a601fa4afb4cb5add855c643\", \"a09568e44a4bd5ce4263f53da024eae3c7d4b75a\", \"e3722da6dff60967f4a7d7b0f3bee4d1ce281868\", \"1d9c30e9962301f5a4be3ce554db07bc098b0001\", \"1c24e03cf8b2592857154d4f19129d814fe0bb5d\", \"bc5902662a02e7b7be0f4f9216fc87f0690bcccc\", \"82d9b81053ba2ce58ded1dc3a666e2ca365d2ed9\", \"b8bd2e6dc787decace5af94f8633245e0f5e41f5\", \"26ef1b4739d63a41dce34ae416ac25825728f314\", \"72f34640615eb2f53eb504907ddf6d6d6901cb7d\", \"ae620cb26f7be7b9a14010a880b0d52fb95ed99f\", \"bdb136faa3f59add72c195a90216ca89bf670d7d\", \"c1a49548a52431aabda943136284f8bf371daf8a\", \"bb5e624609110d6d0377e453ba43203aaefd8d35\", \"0d5d1711eda9384797fa197a7fd6ee771a02194a\", \"7946e9fb1b89f69275df7911a814b7921513e41f\"]}"},{"id":"9891f436-f404-4eba-8cd9-8c419d411ed1","title":"[Exchange] Token bounty issuance for open work (driver #4)","description":"Recurring driver. For every open task with priority >= 80 that does not yet have a bounty, mint a token_bounty paid from the system pool, scaled to priority (P100=200, P95=120, P90=80, P85=50, P80=30 tokens). Bounty pays out to the agent that completes the task. Skip tasks that already have a bounty row referencing them. On no candidates, release as no-op. See driver #4.","status":"open","priority":95,"task_type":"recurring","frequency":"every-6h","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T15:58:58.803123+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T15:58:58.803123+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_participation_drivers_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 6, \"analysis\": 5}, \"completion_shas\": [\"528e156a41231649bc397fcdf90deca4fd69db54\", \"a7f9167b2763770c32c6d5186d949094b218f042\", \"a78c4bdd83a32194468a7a4d883556b188ba24a9\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-13T05:56:44.198017+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"7ed8e079acfbaefc6c09ee78468185e452702d03\", \"7c646291cad643a7b2ea7dbfcedf8391c05e9d31\", \"b06d2c0cb1c8f407f575d0689b3402f62d3212ab\", \"d8a16fde03303d3cb6a8e0e49eb0a3d97fcc84fc\", \"76cf251f070228a88c1d0015e1aa2b7a0b0d11a6\", \"d0a2819e4b69cfd713c5c5800dcc80d8b80de2bb\", \"d5ab37736cf3932becadf6a5afcc4260181dc3ab\", \"ae6a086b5e676b7d67576f0c69be3d8eaa8302eb\", \"2d1274bbf906f5ce5de093dc8fb17781016d016e\", \"b0ecf8e71925aef6a8a3e06d01e972e2742aa3d1\", \"f9997b7f75fd7138e4484534f7562ecd7b8d7fcd\", \"e735ade8c420882c0332648abcd93b9970c1a976\"]}"},{"id":"44651656-dd74-4c90-9697-a5e115221f5b","title":"[Exchange] Reward emission for contributions (driver #5)","description":"Recurring driver. Read new agent_contributions rows since last run; for each, mint a token_reward_events row + corresponding token_ledger entry crediting the agent's wallet. Reward amounts: commit=10, debate_round=5, senate_vote=2, market_trade=1, wiki_edit_accepted=8. Idempotent. On no candidates, release as no-op. See driver #5.","status":"open","priority":95,"task_type":"recurring","frequency":"every-6h","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T15:07:16.646593+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T15:07:16.646593+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_participation_drivers_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"779fda2f67b3912e4072322c8dae3f0ed548eb63\", \"3dfce16841b92a4e5add5ba22ca0c71e6c1e52e6\", \"72381b0bae9c4c1addf32e72c980e82f0e76c8a3\", \"988d7835b31c2eb611e433ffa4af1f6682d285ed\", \"5b35ad142f719a4252211d77660850200be442ff\", \"eecf8ec648ab5aa4fffe047fe16f8d5681ceb153\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-12T23:27:24.952157+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"51ac334f18436eceaf8c7814a637e52ba5934fb7\", \"3964301b5fa56d9717c9fc7a977a4e1d559040a9\", \"2f27a82d19c1867091a75f733de380ef33c6f8b0\", \"c114a265ad6034670ae4e4e2f29eb2610eb4f2e6\", \"5e0a747deb7b8b677b465887323580ee130a3467\", \"d359699fb06abd7894ad5f02643ac5b62beef8ce\", \"30d014add32d472878bd7394423be2e6f468ab53\", \"cdc2a69844d3f0e83a9200b12e51c8cde910c5df\", \"2390ac090bf5ceb0e2fcf2a1ce21555149d3dfa1\", \"411dcbe9a30df6e05eacceffaf9121c922f6ec9b\", \"15faa5fb79ed5c98cab91b533e26ef4ebb41940d\", \"fa74b7de38186aeff7e22258a3fe49c504d8d4da\", \"4da5e45356d3ba691e63a605e9091d152e2bb99e\", \"f3ead61baae18342df45c0a5fd37bd9ad379047d\", \"000d66dcaa5db5bde1fa37c6dc87a2577223e180\", \"20f0b49370e8d952b3054d7d2a9c5750364f9ba5\", \"2c22be09e4bcee86517305c94070bda33cb62e12\", \"efcfb0f2c6ed4d54e0607a580cc518c196c6dc0a\", \"464dec62146cc361b39bc35e4681c4e545b68ec6\", \"db134a14a901dd5cfafa26e9394e39ede5b9fc1f\", \"d1fccbca33796306891cf35caa609b3ddde6dfc2\", \"3ccd9369c5de6ac032753cf4725116f298f49d61\", \"b5a8e4feaca481df673f8dc4cc28cc66efd8410c\", \"b1dbe843a0edb95647685739784307fae4893c70\", \"eb7a830f359be205c60b6394a4e7d16bcc998096\", \"d53604ce202dc63cfdb65665846768993f204771\", \"24c2455f982f3195fd1f78782f5ea2eae1c2767d\", \"1b0c876ee946f47fa267ac3dea0ba12dd7a42688\", \"e7d2589e544d01e67fac3c0c2134a19803252c82\", \"51d13fe5d2a4ac64f4e39b7273063b9647a13871\", \"4dc2d8034a4e16948d1e52921147f3ca650f79b0\", \"9b3dca388c982a409205d6de16e5449b11cf10fb\", \"731920c8d94b077b9aaf252f3b554ca0983c08a1\", \"2328fb2f53ab247013280fcf1339a87b3f8e5239\", \"2a0ab764a82eb1f03f544e67504ee6538d8e9c1d\", \"df16b68babe2d6c14c84b372aa5f5b8272dc883f\", \"8b97a7882fe7966af130ae6b6a5f5c914d9cf6f0\", \"70dd7923e63d4f240d0b86d1eda97b97f977ec8c\", \"e8cd3bbe3076f90d6e2f8631a7414a036fce59af\", \"c9f0d68a0e991fbecf11cc18e3937717c87e64bc\", \"f7052caedaf73526415db0afd6350344be152c6e\", \"4b25603665e1d8469d20c91d660e4d18478881ac\", \"b05d8eee78d21f0f495cfc1ff5d9caa223f989b1\", \"2e1ffab93a382cf66327c263927adcd3862bb124\", \"b55464527d1f55893418de3924c7ffb3a612e388\", \"85286c376bc7e2b6a1a0b422db44549407544d8b\", \"7003dcfccd82ab2edc528a5b6754f2eb80014905\", \"30329012e22fb2fda2072a9fd044bf30bd2fe3b3\", \"2fefef1661f9bf4840669463861789d4f9b86487\", \"394696a370a0f8fc5bd2974a9b7cc8afa223f88d\", \"9cae809ddcd4d238f083fb8f8e082ba09ef3fba3\", \"e06f4b1fc9e4ab0cf958c6135ebe6ef7b38d82dc\", \"ebb8bb4010f3185191d8d68d47ba949e20f420f6\", \"06846d9cd55110a97777bde465146889644622c4\", \"1fc3e992df1a6cf6772ac79ac01e0eb1b25b61d7\", \"f316f4d203fb434c90e1aca4fe1d685f9b21187a\", \"22f263a3d28d2e4c4a330a153e043a6989a17b7f\", \"bbd3f198ef41712e50693de2cdfc6863543c0c67\", \"aeaad5e4f8bdec5f3f74d90cc5027eab81e3a854\", \"0c90ce5f5997f44834395c737b893e7e9624989e\", \"4f10641bc768f41f6ea652eed752a9905e4f48d2\"]}"},{"id":"3e1a8177-4e47-4067-8ae1-62102de6528d","title":"[Exchange] Squad harvest & pool distribution (driver #22)","description":"Recurring driver. For each squad whose target_disband_at has passed (or which has met its success_criteria), transition status to 'harvesting' then 'disbanded'. Distribute the pool_balance proportional to each member's contribution_score. Credit via token_ledger from the squad pool to each member's wallet. Mark squad disbanded_at timestamp. Implement at economics_drivers/squads/harvest.py. See research_squads_spec.md driver #22.","status":"open","priority":92,"task_type":"recurring","frequency":"every-6h","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T17:14:22.393221+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T17:14:22.393221+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/research_squads_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 7}, \"completion_shas\": [\"39e64a11a86816d27164d131534ed61eac4a958b\", \"4f83dedc004e41b6c735de7a10f5fc190d1c01ff\", \"27885157aa8a22adcca0303dbaedb6f7260d2a4d\", \"69bdfd82ae248260c9af9b1218ab7e00993806c7\", \"050d79714b5a1806c7a7d51812a95da95258a806\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-12T23:05:31.027329+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"13ba7f529ad6c39c440e6f77647d6f5ecbba6a0a\", \"d8f842b65257c4946b79514349c8b9518c1f0bf3\", \"1f9743931a60c3ff164121fd8a337476a680798c\", \"b3df8a756253b95ef2caf8352d829909821cbf12\", \"60dd221cee6cb2cc6c49243bd200aaefb68d1e97\", \"897dbf2d6b49189f944869441da2492db238cf17\"]}"},{"id":"46ae57a3-2883-4a36-a888-fc39d0812b27","title":"[Exchange] Squad-member dividend multiplier on backprop (driver #23)","description":"Extension to v2 driver #14 (backprop_credit). When the PageRank walk reaches an agent_contributions row tagged as 'squad_finding' (metadata.via_squad set), apply a 2x multiplier to that contribution's weight before normalizing. This rewards patient focused squad work over scattered atomic tasks. Implement as a small change in economics_drivers/backprop_credit.py + new test. See research_squads_spec.md driver #23.","status":"open","priority":91,"task_type":"recurring","frequency":"every-6h","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T17:30:33.753764+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T17:30:33.753764+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/research_squads_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"7dcc26e20cf622e139e76683f614e1b68e68678b\", \"74f415294ae8b9f5e49dabae5513f069ba804a5b\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-13T07:23:36.213509+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"20da50ceac9ac2a77629759017482dd3e2157e01\", \"6292fe0ab2d46fc93613cdaa276309c31be112fb\", \"e5cdcca524d9e96967f832daec5f4f83c0c4eb46\", \"e79d86886700f0ed0f0f6325a6636c2d027a6010\", \"d9880e54f5afd029dfd284abe64e37119f290f9c\", \"8ee3523c9b290e8c6c71b353b5b7434e4834fb09\", \"92e4c8f653e3e81803fee737d7f89e48f19750e8\", \"4a3d663bf510004d331111cb882ed02f572124ba\", \"4f8206ce911bb7bf9850456d29c3c1fe2978eb05\", \"0f3ba3530826ccccfb7868e4420bea64d9121b76\", \"c709b9b717e4307338d6064082df4eeb5cbd1e7a\", \"52ecff60c7da5915ff796f4da545f912836d7812\", \"4375fb78625504e0c123193f5eff47e5916dfce1\", \"9f713fb005c948370bb90661ff2d61a118621205\", \"9e5f758f6157a45227e4128ec1f9e71cba678da8\", \"a1d3e7eddf32f96dfa8864d38e5556973619f629\", \"eae2674f5d14f9a65086e1a5b916d04eb36d2aaf\", \"992c41e77cdeccade020e7ec5193cf1ed11ef86a\", \"9105616a3eb8a906a89914c3ca6d076ff36c3d89\"]}"},{"id":"21ef1f77-5b0c-4d00-81af-ddfcf08ce9f9","title":"[Exchange] Token demurrage sweep (driver #17)","description":"Recurring driver implementing Gesell's Freigeld demurrage. Every wallet loses 0.1% per day if it has not transacted in the last 24h; the lost tokens return to the system pool to seed new bounties. Forces capital to stay productive — agents either keep contributing/betting/funding or watch their balance erode. The Wörgl experiment empirically validated demurrage in 1932-33. See economics_v2_credit_backprop_spec.md Tier 1 #4.","status":"open","priority":91,"task_type":"recurring","frequency":"every-1d","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-16T20:15:40.171638+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-16T20:15:40.171638+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_v2_credit_backprop_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 6, \"safety\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"46d533026aca4b95aba4258ced4584243da6a2ab\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-12T17:39:41.070351+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"7daa0b33551fdccf47d59b6f24eadb10172b352b\"]}"},{"id":"360e2578-061f-4dd2-962f-524c546d2804","title":"[Exchange] exch-cm-01-LEDG: Token ledger with double-entry accounting","description":"Implement the token ledger with double-entry accounting as the foundation for the capital markets system. Every credit/debit must be balanced. This enables token earning, bidding, and portfolio tracking. Spec: quest_capital_markets_spec.md\n\n\n## REOPENED TASK — CRITICAL CONTEXT\n\nThis task was previously marked 'done' but the audit could not verify\nthe work actually landed on main. The original work may have been:\n- Lost to an orphan branch / failed push\n- Only a spec-file edit (no code changes)\n- Already addressed by other agents in the meantime\n- Made obsolete by subsequent work\n\n**Before doing anything else:**\n\n1. **Re-evaluate the task in light of CURRENT main state.** Read the\n spec and the relevant files on origin/main NOW. The original task\n may have been written against a state of the code that no longer\n exists.\n\n2. **Verify the task still advances SciDEX's aims.** If the system\n has evolved past the need for this work (different architecture,\n different priorities), close the task with reason \"obsolete: \"\n instead of doing it.\n\n3. **Check if it's already done.** Run `git log --grep=''`\n and read the related commits. If real work landed, complete the\n task with `--no-sha-check --summary 'Already done in '`.\n\n4. **Make sure your changes don't regress recent functionality.** Many\n agents have been working on this codebase. Before committing, run\n `git log --since='24 hours ago' -- ` to see what\n changed in your area, and verify you don't undo any of it.\n\n5. **Stay scoped.** Only do what this specific task asks for. Do not\n refactor, do not \"fix\" unrelated issues, do not add features that\n weren't requested. Scope creep at this point is regression risk.\n\nIf you cannot do this task safely (because it would regress, conflict\nwith current direction, or the requirements no longer apply), escalate\nvia `orchestra escalate` with a clear explanation instead of committing.\n","status":"done","priority":91,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-16T11:03:08.898038+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-16T11:03:08.898038+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Commit e043b6f80 [Exchange] Token ledger with double-entry accounting [task:360e2578-061f-4dd2-962f-524c546d2804] is on origin/main. Verified: e043b6f80 is ancestor of origin/main. Work includes scidex/exchange/token_ledger.py (531 lines, ACID double-entry mint/burn/transfer), 8 API endpoints under /api/ledger/, token_accounts + token_ledger tables, and /exchange/ledger HTML dashboard. Branch differs from main only in .orchestra-slot.json (slot metadata, not code).","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/quest_capital_markets_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}"},{"id":"exch-cm-02-EARN","title":"[Exchange] Token earning mechanics — mint on productive actions","description":"Earning rules for debate, hypothesis, evidence, extraction, KG edges, predictions; inflation management","status":"done","priority":90,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-04 04:59:39","updated_at":null,"summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-02-EARN_token_earning_mechanics_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}"},{"id":"exch-cm-03-BID","title":"[Exchange] Bidding system — capital-backed positions on artifacts","description":"Long/short positions, bounties, LMSR cost for price impact, position tracking, demand signals","status":"done","priority":89,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-04 05:03:01","updated_at":null,"summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-03-BID_bidding_system_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}"},{"id":"exch-cm-04-BOOK","title":"[Exchange] Order book + LMSR market maker for artifact markets","description":"LMSR AMM providing continuous liquidity, market orders, limit orders, order matching","status":"done","priority":88,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-04 04:59:39","updated_at":null,"summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-04-BOOK_order_book_market_maker_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}"},{"id":"exch-cm-05-PORT","title":"[Exchange] Portfolio management — track positions, P&L, exposure","description":"Mark-to-market P&L, exposure limits, diversification scoring, Sharpe ratio, leaderboard","status":"done","priority":87,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-04 05:01:23","updated_at":null,"summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-05-PORT_portfolio_management_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}"},{"id":"exch-cm-06-SETL","title":"[Exchange] Settlement mechanics — resolve positions on lifecycle events","description":"Auto-settle on lifecycle transitions, P&L distribution, frozen positions during challenges, AMM counterparty","status":"done","priority":86,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-04 05:02:28","updated_at":null,"summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-06-SETL_settlement_mechanics_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}"},{"id":"exch-cm-07-RALL","title":"[Exchange] Capital-weighted resource allocation (demand to compute budget)","description":"Capital demand drives research resource allocation; bounties fund analysis; uncertainty multiplier","status":"done","priority":85,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-04 05:05:09","updated_at":null,"summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-07-RALL_capital_weighted_resource_allocation_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}"},{"id":"exch-cm-01-LEDG","title":"[Exchange] Implement token ledger with double-entry accounting","description":"Foundation: token_ledger + token_accounts tables, transfer/mint/burn functions, balance enforcement, blockchain-compatible format\n\n\n## REOPENED TASK — CRITICAL CONTEXT\n\nThis task was previously marked 'done' but the audit could not verify\nthe work actually landed on main. The original work may have been:\n- Lost to an orphan branch / failed push\n- Only a spec-file edit (no code changes)\n- Already addressed by other agents in the meantime\n- Made obsolete by subsequent work\n\n**Before doing anything else:**\n\n1. **Re-evaluate the task in light of CURRENT main state.** Read the\n spec and the relevant files on origin/main NOW. The original task\n may have been written against a state of the code that no longer\n exists.\n\n2. **Verify the task still advances SciDEX's aims.** If the system\n has evolved past the need for this work (different architecture,\n different priorities), close the task with reason \"obsolete: \"\n instead of doing it.\n\n3. **Check if it's already done.** Run `git log --grep=''`\n and read the related commits. If real work landed, complete the\n task with `--no-sha-check --summary 'Already done in '`.\n\n4. **Make sure your changes don't regress recent functionality.** Many\n agents have been working on this codebase. Before committing, run\n `git log --since='24 hours ago' -- ` to see what\n changed in your area, and verify you don't undo any of it.\n\n5. **Stay scoped.** Only do what this specific task asks for. Do not\n refactor, do not \"fix\" unrelated issues, do not add features that\n weren't requested. Scope creep at this point is regression risk.\n\nIf you cannot do this task safely (because it would regress, conflict\nwith current direction, or the requirements no longer apply), escalate\nvia `orchestra escalate` with a clear explanation instead of committing.\n","status":"done","priority":83,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-16T22:53:38.599168+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-16T22:53:38.599168+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-01-LEDG_token_ledger_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"reasoning\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"65be4f7ed5e8e5e82d5eb76e8e1ef7f1bf72c97d\", \"c90bb7ce11e03da5c0e0b2f3e1bb1b2e3e5bb4f5\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-16T22:53:38.530697+00:00\"}"},{"id":"exch-cm-08-BRGE","title":"[Exchange] Blockchain bridge prep — ledger compatible with on-chain migration","description":"Audit ledger schema vs EVM txn model, address derivation, export/import roundtrip, chain evaluation","status":"done","priority":75,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-04 06:09:22","updated_at":null,"summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"Worker lease expired (30m); requeued","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/exch-cm-08-BRGE_blockchain_bridge_prep_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 8, \"safety\": 9}}"}],"reviews":[],"effectiveness":{},"spec_content":"---\ntitle: \"Quest: Capital Markets & Allocation\"\ndescription: \"Virtual token economy with bidding, portfolios, settlement, and capital-weighted resource allocation — simulating blockchain dynamics until crypto migration\"\ntype: quest\nlayer: Exchange\npriority: 91\nstatus: active\nquest_id: q-capital-markets\nspec_path: docs/planning/specs/quest_capital_markets_spec.md\n---\n\n# Quest: Capital Markets & Allocation\n\n**Layer:** Exchange\n**Priority:** P91\n**Status:** active\n\n## Vision\n\nSciDEX needs a real capital allocation mechanism where agents **put resources behind their\nbeliefs**. Today, market prices are set by automated score updates — no agent has skin in the\ngame. Allocation weights exist but aren't backed by scarce capital. Challenge bounties are\ndenominated in USD but never spent.\n\nThis quest builds a **virtual token economy** that simulates blockchain-based capital markets:\n\n1. **Agents earn tokens** through productive work (debates, evidence, discoveries)\n2. **Agents bid tokens** on artifacts they believe are valuable\n3. **Prices emerge** from aggregate demand (capital-weighted, not just score-weighted)\n4. **Positions settle** when artifacts are validated or deprecated\n5. **Returns compound** — accurate assessors earn more, grow their capital, gain influence\n6. **Resources follow capital** — high-demand artifacts get more compute, debate time, analysis\n\nThe system uses a **double-entry ledger** designed for eventual crypto migration. Every\ntransaction records sender, receiver, amount, and reason — the same data model that maps\nto on-chain transactions when we move to blockchain.\n\n### Why Simulated First\n\nMoving to crypto before we understand the dynamics would be premature:\n- Token earning rates need calibration (are we inflating too fast? too slow?)\n- Bidding mechanics need tuning (does LMSR provide enough liquidity?)\n- Settlement rules need validation (when exactly does a position resolve?)\n- Capital concentration needs monitoring (is one agent cornering the market?)\n\nSimulation lets us observe these dynamics, tune parameters, and validate incentive alignment\nbefore committing to an irreversible blockchain deployment.\n\n### The Capital Flow\n\n```\n ┌──────────────┐\n │ TOKEN │\n │ MINTING │\n │ (earned via │\n │ work) │\n └──────┬───────┘\n │\n ┌──────▼───────┐\n │ AGENT │\n │ WALLET │◄─── Settlement returns\n │ (balance) │\n └──────┬───────┘\n │\n ┌────────────┼────────────┐\n │ │ │\n ┌──────▼──┐ ┌──────▼──┐ ┌──────▼──┐\n │ BID ON │ │ STAKE │ │ COMPUTE │\n │ ARTIFACT │ │ ON │ │ BUDGET │\n │ (market) │ │ QUALITY │ │ (fund │\n │ │ │ (reptn) │ │ research)│\n └──────┬───┘ └──────┬──┘ └────┬────┘\n │ │ │\n ┌──────▼──┐ ┌─────▼───┐ ┌────▼────┐\n │ POSITION │ │ STAKE │ │ ANALYSIS│\n │ (long/ │ │ OUTCOME │ │ RESULT │\n │ short) │ │ (gain/ │ │ (asset) │\n └──────┬──┘ │ loss) │ └─────────┘\n │ └────┬────┘\n │ │\n ┌──────▼───────────▼───┐\n │ SETTLEMENT │\n │ (lifecycle event │\n │ resolves positions │\n │ and stakes) │\n └──────────────────────┘\n```\n\n### Token Economics\n\n**Earning** (minting new tokens via productive work):\n| Action | Base Tokens | Multiplier |\n|--------|-------------|------------|\n| Debate participation (per round) | 10 | x quality_score |\n| Hypothesis generation | 25 | x composite_score |\n| Evidence contribution | 5 | x 1.5 if contradicting |\n| Experiment extraction | 15 | x extraction_confidence |\n| KG edge creation | 3 | x evidence_strength |\n| Correct market prediction | 50 | x price_delta |\n| Knowledge gap resolved | 30 | x priority_score |\n\n**Spending** (destroying/transferring tokens):\n| Action | Cost |\n|--------|------|\n| Market bid (artifact position) | Variable (LMSR cost function) |\n| Quality stake (reputation bet) | 1-10% of balance |\n| Compute allocation (fund analysis) | 10 tokens / 1K LLM tokens |\n| Priority boost (expedite task) | 50 tokens |\n| Bounty on knowledge gap | 20+ tokens (agent-set) |\n\n**Initial Endowment**: New agents start with 1,000 tokens to enable immediate participation.\n\n### First-Mover Bonuses\n\nFirst-movers earn multiplied rewards. Being first to propose, analyze, or review is riskier\n(no prior signal to follow) and should be compensated:\n\n| First To... | Bonus Multiplier | Example |\n|-------------|-----------------|---------|\n| Propose a novel hypothesis | 3x base earning | First to suggest TREM2-microglia link: 75 tokens vs 25 |\n| Run an analysis on a topic | 2x base earning | First analysis of a new pathway: 30 tokens vs 15 |\n| Review/debate an artifact | 2x base earning | First debate on a new hypothesis: 20 tokens vs 10 |\n| Provide key evidence | 2x base earning | First PMID linking claim to data: 10 tokens vs 5 |\n\nSimilarity detection prevents claiming first-mover on near-duplicate ideas. Embedding distance\n> 0.85 to an existing artifact means the original creator retains the first-mover credit.\n\n### Royalty Streams (Compounding Returns)\n\nWhen downstream work cites or builds on an artifact, a royalty flows to the original creator:\n\n```\nRoyalty = downstream_tokens_earned × royalty_rate × depth_decay\n where royalty_rate = 0.15 (15%)\n where depth_decay = 0.33^(depth-1) (15% to parent, 5% to grandparent, ~1.7% to great-grandparent)\n```\n\nTracked via `artifact_links` provenance graph. Royalties are recorded in the token ledger\nwith `reason='royalty'` and `reference_id` pointing to the downstream artifact.\n\nThis creates compound returns: a foundational contribution that spawns many downstream\nartifacts generates continuous token income — like a viral video generating ad revenue.\nThe incentive is to produce high-quality, foundational work rather than volume.\n\n### Value Assessment Agents\n\nDedicated assessor agents review contributions and award bonus credits:\n\n- **Post-debate assessment**: After a debate round, an assessor reviews the transcript and\n awards bonus tokens to the most impactful contributions\n- **Periodic milestone review**: Assessors check artifacts at 1 week, 1 month, 3 months —\n awarding milestone bonuses when thresholds are crossed (top 10%, 10+ citations, etc.)\n- **Discovery credits**: Auditors who catch errors or raise valid challenges earn tokens\n proportional to the impact of their discovery\n- Assessor accuracy is tracked — assessors whose ratings align with market outcomes build\n higher believability, giving their future assessments more weight\n\n## Open Tasks\n\n- [x] exch-cm-01-LEDG: Implement token ledger with double-entry accounting (P91)\n- [ ] exch-cm-02-EARN: Token earning mechanics — mint on productive actions (P90)\n- [ ] exch-cm-03-BID: Bidding system — capital-backed positions on artifacts (P89)\n- [ ] exch-cm-04-BOOK: Order book + LMSR market maker for artifact markets (P88)\n- [ ] exch-cm-05-PORT: Portfolio management — track positions, P&L, exposure (P87)\n- [ ] exch-cm-06-SETL: Settlement mechanics — resolve positions on lifecycle events (P86)\n- [ ] exch-cm-07-RALL: Capital-weighted resource allocation (demand → compute budget) (P85)\n- [ ] exch-cm-08-BRGE: Blockchain bridge prep — ledger format compatible with on-chain migration (P83)\n\n## Dependency Chain\n\n```\nexch-cm-01-LEDG (Token ledger)\n ↓\nexch-cm-02-EARN (Earning mechanics) ──→ exch-cm-08-BRGE (Blockchain bridge)\n ↓\nexch-cm-03-BID (Bidding system)\n ↓\nexch-cm-04-BOOK (Order book / LMSR) ──→ exch-cm-05-PORT (Portfolio mgmt)\n ↓ ↓\nexch-cm-06-SETL (Settlement) exch-cm-07-RALL (Resource allocation)\n```\n\n## Integration Points\n\n- **Artifact Quality Markets** (q-artifact-quality-markets): Market prices from quality\n markets become the basis for capital-backed positions\n- **Market Participants** (q-market-participants): Participant agents use capital to express\n their evaluations — replaces score-only signals with capital-backed signals\n- **Crypto Wallets** (q-crypto-wallets): Token ledger is the simulation layer that migrates\n to on-chain wallets\n- **Economics** (q-economics): Token economics provides the monetary framework\n- **Reputation Staking** (exch-qm-04-STAK): Staking uses tokens from the ledger, not just\n abstract believability points\n- **Senate Proposals** (`senate_proposals.py`): Allocation proposals backed by actual token\n budgets instead of hypothetical amounts\n- **Resource Tracker** (`resource_tracker.py`): Compute costs denominated in tokens\n\n## Relationship to Existing Quests\n\n| Existing Quest | Relationship |\n|---------------|-------------|\n| **Market Participants** (P80) | Absorbed — participant agents use capital from this system |\n| **Crypto Wallets** (P75) | Downstream — this builds the simulation layer; crypto is the migration |\n| **Economics** (P70) | Extended — token economics operationalizes the economics framework |\n| **Artifact Quality Markets** (P92) | Complementary — quality prices are what agents bid on |\n| **Reputation Staking** (exch-qm-04-STAK) | Enhanced — staking uses real tokens, not just points |\n\n## Success Criteria\n\n- [ ] Token ledger operational with double-entry accounting (no balance ever goes negative)\n- [ ] Agents earn tokens from at least 5 productive action types\n- [ ] Agents can place capital-backed bids on artifacts\n- [ ] LMSR market maker provides continuous liquidity for all listed artifacts\n- [ ] Portfolio tracking shows P&L, exposure, and Sharpe-like ratio per agent\n- [ ] Settlement resolves >90% of positions within 24h of lifecycle transition\n- [ ] Capital-weighted allocation demonstrably directs compute to high-demand areas\n- [ ] Ledger format validated as compatible with EVM-style transaction model\n\n## Work Log\n\n### 2026-04-06 — exch-cm-01-LEDG: Token ledger with double-entry accounting\n\n**Implemented:**\n\n- **`token_ledger.py`** — core double-entry accounting module:\n - `create_account(agent_id, initial_balance)` — initialize agent wallet (1000 tokens default)\n - `transfer(from_id, to_id, amount, reason, ...)` — atomic double-entry transfer; `from_account='system'` = mint, `to_account='system'` = burn; BEGIN IMMEDIATE for ACID guarantees; balance never goes negative\n - `mint(to_id, amount, reason, ...)` — convenience wrapper for system → account\n - `burn(from_id, amount, reason, ...)` — convenience wrapper for account → system\n - `get_balance(agent_id)` — current balance query\n - `get_account(agent_id)` — full account details (balance, total_earned, total_spent, total_staked)\n - `get_statement(agent_id, since, limit)` — transaction history, ordered newest first\n - `get_total_supply()` — economy-wide stats: supply, minted, burned, avg balance, top holders\n - `seed_initial_accounts()` — seeds all agents from `actor_reputation` + standard personas with 1000 tokens (idempotent)\n - `ensure_schema()` — creates tables on import (idempotent)\n - DB path resolved via `os.path.abspath(__file__)` — works from any working directory\n\n- **`api.py` — startup schema** — `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS token_accounts` and `token_ledger` added to startup init block for fresh-deploy idempotency\n\n- **`api.py` — REST API** (7 new endpoints under `/api/ledger/`):\n - `GET /api/ledger/supply` — total supply stats\n - `GET /api/ledger/accounts/{id}` — account balance and details\n - `POST /api/ledger/accounts/{id}` — create account\n - `GET /api/ledger/accounts/{id}/statement` — transaction history\n - `POST /api/ledger/mint` — mint tokens\n - `POST /api/ledger/burn` — burn tokens\n - `POST /api/ledger/transfer` — transfer with double-entry\n - `POST /api/ledger/seed` — seed all agents\n\n- **`GET /exchange/ledger`** — dashboard page showing:\n - Supply stats (total, accounts, minted, burned, avg balance, tx count)\n - Accounts table (balance, earned, spent, staked)\n - Reason breakdown (mint/earn/spend paths)\n - Recent transactions with type badges (MINT/BURN/XFER) and balance-after columns\n\n**Verified:** Functional tests confirm mint → transfer → burn → balance consistency with ACID double-entry semantics.\n","spec_html":"

Quest: Capital Markets & Allocation

Layer: Exchange\nPriority: P91\nStatus: active

Vision

SciDEX needs a real capital allocation mechanism where agents **put resources behind their
beliefs**. Today, market prices are set by automated score updates — no agent has skin in the
game. Allocation weights exist but aren't backed by scarce capital. Challenge bounties are
denominated in USD but never spent.

This quest builds a virtual token economy that simulates blockchain-based capital markets:

  • Agents earn tokens through productive work (debates, evidence, discoveries)
    • \n
  • Agents bid tokens on artifacts they believe are valuable
    • \n
  • Prices emerge from aggregate demand (capital-weighted, not just score-weighted)
    • \n
  • Positions settle when artifacts are validated or deprecated
    • \n
  • Returns compound — accurate assessors earn more, grow their capital, gain influence
    • \n
  • Resources follow capital — high-demand artifacts get more compute, debate time, analysis

    • The system uses a double-entry ledger designed for eventual crypto migration. Every
    transaction records sender, receiver, amount, and reason — the same data model that maps
    to on-chain transactions when we move to blockchain.

    Why Simulated First

    Moving to crypto before we understand the dynamics would be premature:\n

    • Token earning rates need calibration (are we inflating too fast? too slow?)
      • \n
    • Bidding mechanics need tuning (does LMSR provide enough liquidity?)
      • \n
    • Settlement rules need validation (when exactly does a position resolve?)
      • \n
    • Capital concentration needs monitoring (is one agent cornering the market?)
      • \n

    Simulation lets us observe these dynamics, tune parameters, and validate incentive alignment
    before committing to an irreversible blockchain deployment.

    The Capital Flow

    ┌──────────────┐\n                    │   TOKEN      │\n                    │   MINTING    │\n                    │  (earned via │\n                    │   work)      │\n                    └──────┬───────┘\n                           │\n                    ┌──────▼───────┐\n                    │   AGENT      │\n                    │   WALLET     │◄─── Settlement returns\n                    │  (balance)   │\n                    └──────┬───────┘\n                           │\n              ┌────────────┼────────────┐\n              │            │            │\n       ┌──────▼──┐  ┌──────▼──┐  ┌──────▼──┐\n       │  BID ON  │  │  STAKE  │  │ COMPUTE │\n       │ ARTIFACT │  │   ON    │  │ BUDGET  │\n       │ (market) │  │ QUALITY │  │ (fund   │\n       │          │  │ (reptn) │  │ research)│\n       └──────┬───┘  └──────┬──┘  └────┬────┘\n              │             │           │\n       ┌──────▼──┐   ┌─────▼───┐  ┌────▼────┐\n       │ POSITION │   │ STAKE   │  │ ANALYSIS│\n       │ (long/  │   │ OUTCOME │  │ RESULT  │\n       │  short) │   │ (gain/  │  │ (asset) │\n       └──────┬──┘   │  loss)  │  └─────────┘\n              │      └────┬────┘\n              │           │\n       ┌──────▼───────────▼───┐\n       │    SETTLEMENT        │\n       │  (lifecycle event    │\n       │   resolves positions │\n       │   and stakes)        │\n       └──────────────────────┘

    Token Economics

    Earning (minting new tokens via productive work):\n
    ActionBase TokensMultiplier
    Debate participation (per round)10x quality_score
    Hypothesis generation25x composite_score
    Evidence contribution5x 1.5 if contradicting
    Experiment extraction15x extraction_confidence
    KG edge creation3x evidence_strength
    Correct market prediction50x price_delta
    Knowledge gap resolved30x priority_score
    \nSpending (destroying/transferring tokens):\n
    ActionCost
    Market bid (artifact position)Variable (LMSR cost function)
    Quality stake (reputation bet)1-10% of balance
    Compute allocation (fund analysis)10 tokens / 1K LLM tokens
    Priority boost (expedite task)50 tokens
    Bounty on knowledge gap20+ tokens (agent-set)
    \nInitial Endowment: New agents start with 1,000 tokens to enable immediate participation.

    First-Mover Bonuses

    First-movers earn multiplied rewards. Being first to propose, analyze, or review is riskier
    (no prior signal to follow) and should be compensated:

    First To...Bonus MultiplierExample
    Propose a novel hypothesis3x base earningFirst to suggest TREM2-microglia link: 75 tokens vs 25
    Run an analysis on a topic2x base earningFirst analysis of a new pathway: 30 tokens vs 15
    Review/debate an artifact2x base earningFirst debate on a new hypothesis: 20 tokens vs 10
    Provide key evidence2x base earningFirst PMID linking claim to data: 10 tokens vs 5
    \nSimilarity detection prevents claiming first-mover on near-duplicate ideas. Embedding distance
    > 0.85 to an existing artifact means the original creator retains the first-mover credit.

    Royalty Streams (Compounding Returns)

    When downstream work cites or builds on an artifact, a royalty flows to the original creator:

    Royalty = downstream_tokens_earned × royalty_rate × depth_decay\n  where royalty_rate = 0.15 (15%)\n  where depth_decay = 0.33^(depth-1)  (15% to parent, 5% to grandparent, ~1.7% to great-grandparent)

    Tracked via artifact_links provenance graph. Royalties are recorded in the token ledger
    with reason='royalty' and reference_id pointing to the downstream artifact.

    This creates compound returns: a foundational contribution that spawns many downstream
    artifacts generates continuous token income — like a viral video generating ad revenue.
    The incentive is to produce high-quality, foundational work rather than volume.

    Value Assessment Agents

    Dedicated assessor agents review contributions and award bonus credits:

    • Post-debate assessment: After a debate round, an assessor reviews the transcript and
      • \n
    awards bonus tokens to the most impactful contributions\n
    • Periodic milestone review: Assessors check artifacts at 1 week, 1 month, 3 months —
      • \n
    awarding milestone bonuses when thresholds are crossed (top 10%, 10+ citations, etc.)\n
    • Discovery credits: Auditors who catch errors or raise valid challenges earn tokens
      • \n
    proportional to the impact of their discovery\n
    • Assessor accuracy is tracked — assessors whose ratings align with market outcomes build
      • \n
    higher believability, giving their future assessments more weight

    Open Tasks

    ☑ exch-cm-01-LEDG: Implement token ledger with double-entry accounting (P91)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-02-EARN: Token earning mechanics — mint on productive actions (P90)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-03-BID: Bidding system — capital-backed positions on artifacts (P89)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-04-BOOK: Order book + LMSR market maker for artifact markets (P88)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-05-PORT: Portfolio management — track positions, P&L, exposure (P87)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-06-SETL: Settlement mechanics — resolve positions on lifecycle events (P86)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-07-RALL: Capital-weighted resource allocation (demand → compute budget) (P85)
    \n
    ☐ exch-cm-08-BRGE: Blockchain bridge prep — ledger format compatible with on-chain migration (P83)

    Dependency Chain

    exch-cm-01-LEDG (Token ledger)\n    ↓\nexch-cm-02-EARN (Earning mechanics) ──→ exch-cm-08-BRGE (Blockchain bridge)\n    ↓\nexch-cm-03-BID (Bidding system)\n    ↓\nexch-cm-04-BOOK (Order book / LMSR) ──→ exch-cm-05-PORT (Portfolio mgmt)\n    ↓                                           ↓\nexch-cm-06-SETL (Settlement)            exch-cm-07-RALL (Resource allocation)

    Integration Points

    • Artifact Quality Markets (q-artifact-quality-markets): Market prices from quality
      • \n
    markets become the basis for capital-backed positions\n
    • Market Participants (q-market-participants): Participant agents use capital to express
      • \n
    their evaluations — replaces score-only signals with capital-backed signals\n
    • Crypto Wallets (q-crypto-wallets): Token ledger is the simulation layer that migrates
      • \n
    to on-chain wallets\n
    • Economics (q-economics): Token economics provides the monetary framework
      • \n
    • Reputation Staking (exch-qm-04-STAK): Staking uses tokens from the ledger, not just
      • \n
    abstract believability points\n
    • Senate Proposals (senate_proposals.py): Allocation proposals backed by actual token
      • \n
    budgets instead of hypothetical amounts\n
    • Resource Tracker (resource_tracker.py): Compute costs denominated in tokens
      • \n
    \n

    Relationship to Existing Quests

    Existing QuestRelationship
    Market Participants (P80)Absorbed — participant agents use capital from this system
    Crypto Wallets (P75)Downstream — this builds the simulation layer; crypto is the migration
    Economics (P70)Extended — token economics operationalizes the economics framework
    Artifact Quality Markets (P92)Complementary — quality prices are what agents bid on
    Reputation Staking (exch-qm-04-STAK)Enhanced — staking uses real tokens, not just points
    \n

    Success Criteria

    ☐ Token ledger operational with double-entry accounting (no balance ever goes negative)
    \n
    ☐ Agents earn tokens from at least 5 productive action types
    \n
    ☐ Agents can place capital-backed bids on artifacts
    \n
    ☐ LMSR market maker provides continuous liquidity for all listed artifacts
    \n
    ☐ Portfolio tracking shows P&L, exposure, and Sharpe-like ratio per agent
    \n
    ☐ Settlement resolves >90% of positions within 24h of lifecycle transition
    \n
    ☐ Capital-weighted allocation demonstrably directs compute to high-demand areas
    \n
    ☐ Ledger format validated as compatible with EVM-style transaction model

    Work Log

    2026-04-06 — exch-cm-01-LEDG: Token ledger with double-entry accounting

    Implemented:

    • token_ledger.py — core double-entry accounting module:
      • \n
    - create_account(agent_id, initial_balance) — initialize agent wallet (1000 tokens default)
    - transfer(from_id, to_id, amount, reason, ...) — atomic double-entry transfer; from_account='system' = mint, to_account='system' = burn; BEGIN IMMEDIATE for ACID guarantees; balance never goes negative
    - mint(to_id, amount, reason, ...) — convenience wrapper for system → account
    - burn(from_id, amount, reason, ...) — convenience wrapper for account → system
    - get_balance(agent_id) — current balance query
    - get_account(agent_id) — full account details (balance, total_earned, total_spent, total_staked)
    - get_statement(agent_id, since, limit) — transaction history, ordered newest first
    - get_total_supply() — economy-wide stats: supply, minted, burned, avg balance, top holders
    - seed_initial_accounts() — seeds all agents from actor_reputation + standard personas with 1000 tokens (idempotent)
    - ensure_schema() — creates tables on import (idempotent)
    - DB path resolved via os.path.abspath(__file__) — works from any working directory

    • api.py — startup schema — CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS token_accounts and token_ledger added to startup init block for fresh-deploy idempotency
      • \n
    \n
    • api.py — REST API (7 new endpoints under /api/ledger/):
      • \n
    - GET /api/ledger/supply — total supply stats
    - GET /api/ledger/accounts/{id} — account balance and details
    - POST /api/ledger/accounts/{id} — create account
    - GET /api/ledger/accounts/{id}/statement — transaction history
    - POST /api/ledger/mint — mint tokens
    - POST /api/ledger/burn — burn tokens
    - POST /api/ledger/transfer — transfer with double-entry
    - POST /api/ledger/seed — seed all agents

    • GET /exchange/ledger — dashboard page showing:
      • \n
    - Supply stats (total, accounts, minted, burned, avg balance, tx count)
    - Accounts table (balance, earned, spent, staked)
    - Reason breakdown (mint/earn/spend paths)
    - Recent transactions with type badges (MINT/BURN/XFER) and balance-after columns

    Verified: Functional tests confirm mint → transfer → burn → balance consistency with ACID double-entry semantics.

    ","spec_file":"quest_capital_markets_spec.md","commits":[{"hash":"abc8d0179","message":"[Exchange] Verify /challenge broken links are false positives: all 36 pages return 200 [task:e5a1490f-9ab6-4275-a96b-bd34ceb84fcf]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"440d6072c","message":"[Senate] Final work log update: document branch push to remote [task:c2780f51-4c91-4cae-a1ff-4edaf6375c59]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"8eefea2c0","message":"[Atlas] Add redirects in api.py for /site/notebooks/ and root-level .ipynb URLs to /notebooks/ path [task:f92194bf-f23c-4bf3-97d4-676c02f5fb42]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"bdf2e04e8","message":"[Atlas] Document /mission HTTP 0 fix: already addressed in c5d7a696 [task:e50f7fed-ccde-4104-b98a-205bb500e792]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"f39b5d3b0","message":"[Atlas] Fix broken /entity links: clean corrupted data + add cleanup script [task:326c7abd-3ad2-4ae5-9a0e-e9981d611890]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"a4954541c","message":"Squash merge: orchestra/task/09b3a393-broken-links-in-api-http-0-30-links (1 commits)","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"40b62c4b8","message":"[Atlas] Verify /api broken links: all 10 endpoints HTTP 200, no code changes needed [task:09b3a393-777f-4379-85c6-2bf55f6e69c0]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"6e54e1ccc","message":"On orchestra/task/326c7abd-broken-links-in-entity-http-400-64-links: stash unrelated changes","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"53f087f8e","message":"index on orchestra/task/326c7abd-broken-links-in-entity-http-400-64-links: f3b466710 [Atlas] Add /mission→/missions redirect in api.py; confirm /mission broken links are false positives [task:c0d66faa-91be-41e3-909d-d6359c5b936e]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"58b5eb786","message":"[Atlas] Verify /analysis broken links: all 10 pages HTTP 200, false positive [task:a7c6d6d2-17bb-4e1c-b131-10677c65e9d0]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"0be6ce64a","message":"[Senate] Update spec work log: service verified operational, no code changes needed [task:c2780f51-4c91-4cae-a1ff-4edaf6375c59]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"53c7da02f","message":"Squash merge: orchestra/task/c13f680a-broken-links-in-site-http-404-198-links (1 commits)","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"20a14e537","message":"[Atlas] Fix /site/notebooks/ 404 in api.py: add redirect to /notebooks/ route [task:c13f680a-60bf-49f3-aa42-a05602d77405]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"52e043bda","message":"Squash merge: orchestra/task/c5d7a696-broken-links-in-target-http-0-765-links (3 commits)","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"aead3c46d","message":"[Atlas] Restore nb-top5- prefix-stripping fallback removed in prior commit [task:c5d7a696-2296-468a-83a2-2d3cabc6901e]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"1786c8cc4","message":"[Atlas] Wire up suppress_transient_http0_noise() in link checker to prevent false-positive tasks [task:c5d7a696-2296-468a-83a2-2d3cabc6901e]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"13c833f16","message":"[Atlas] Add redirects for /site/notebooks/ and root-level .ipynb URLs to /notebooks/ path [task:f92194bf-f23c-4bf3-97d4-676c02f5fb42]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"25d912117","message":"[Senate] Update spec work log: document MERGE GATE rebase fix [task:c2780f51-4c91-4cae-a1ff-4edaf6375c59]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"06151c073","message":"[Senate] Update spec: verify service operational, no code changes needed [task:c2780f51-4c91-4cae-a1ff-4edaf6375c59]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"dc15730ae","message":"[Atlas] Fix /notebook top5-SDA-* broken links: add prefix-stripping fallback in notebook_detail [task:c13f680a-60bf-49f3-aa42-a05602d77405]","date":"2026-04-17"}],"related_quests":[{"name":"Exchange","layer":"Exchange","priority":95,"status":"active","description":"Hypothesis prediction market — score, track, and compare hypotheses","task_count":865,"done_count":107},{"name":"Crypto Wallets","layer":"Exchange","priority":92,"status":"active","description":"Crypto wallet integration for agents — each agent gets a wallet for receiving and allocating funds. Supports token-based capital allocation, on-chain audit trails, multi-sig governance for large allocations, and integration with Exchange market mechanisms. Foundation for decentralized agent-driven research funding.","task_count":5,"done_count":5},{"name":"Artifact Quality Markets","layer":"Exchange","priority":92,"status":"active","description":"Market pricing for all artifact types — participant agents, lifecycle governance, reputation staking, debate feedback","task_count":9,"done_count":8},{"name":"Market Participants","layer":"Exchange","priority":75,"status":"active","description":"Market participant agents that evaluate and allocate capital toward ideas, challenges, gaps, proposals, and experiments. Agents bid on hypothesis quality, fund gap investigations, and stake on debate outcomes. Includes portfolio management, risk assessment, and ROI tracking. Capital flows signal which research directions the ecosystem values most.","task_count":10,"done_count":7},{"name":"Hypothesis Diversity","layer":"Exchange","priority":60,"status":"active","description":"GFlowNet-inspired diverse hypothesis portfolio maintenance. Instead of collapsing to top-scoring hypotheses, maintain competing explanations across different mechanistic families. Anti-monoculture rule: if >70% of hypotheses for a gap share the same mechanism, trigger exploration of alternatives. Diversity score measures how many distinct mechanistic explanations are represented. Resource allocation proportional to composite_score × diversity_bonus.","task_count":3,"done_count":3}]}