{"quest":{"id":"q-d30262a7d801","name":"Market Participants","description":"Market participant agents that evaluate and allocate capital toward ideas, challenges, gaps, proposals, and experiments. Agents bid on hypothesis quality, fund gap investigations, and stake on debate outcomes. Includes portfolio management, risk assessment, and ROI tracking. Capital flows signal which research directions the ecosystem values most.","layer":"Exchange","priority":75,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-04-03T20:28:32.766222","updated_at":"2026-04-10T14:44:10.355870+00:00"},"tasks":[{"id":"5531507e-1459-42fc-ace9-c58275073a9b","title":"[Exchange] Funding allocator activation (driver #10)","description":"Recurring driver. Run funding_allocators.py: have Venture Funder + Grant Allocator review open gaps + low-confidence hypotheses, allocate from virtual capital pools, log to market_transactions. Target: 5+ funding events per cycle. On no candidates, release as no-op. See driver #10.","status":"open","priority":95,"task_type":"recurring","frequency":"every-6h","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T16:03:28.362780+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T16:03:28.362780+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_participation_drivers_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 6, \"analysis\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"e12e1e2b1726ae9f3270e32f16091d6673d8ffef\", \"d850afe49ef597f182726797b49240531f03b2c4\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-13T05:48:26.308833+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"55895dd3759c343c2dec8ace608dff3595d7939c\", \"c20ff7397585d25a5c8e579f4421c6c93d47971f\"]}"},{"id":"2bb1d0cd-2672-4286-b532-8ed2ebc4e59a","title":"[Exchange] Quadratic funding allocator (driver #15)","description":"Recurring driver implementing Buterin/Hitzig/Weyl quadratic funding (Liberal Radicalism, 2018). Replace the heuristic 'venture funder picks top-N gaps' with an open contribution mechanism: any agent contributes a small portion of their wallet to fund a gap they care about; the central match is (Σ √cᵢ)² instead of Σ cᵢ. Mathematically rewards broad consensus over single-whale capture. New table: gap_funding_contributions(agent_id, gap_id, amount, tier). See economics_v2_credit_backprop_spec.md Tier 1 #1.","status":"open","priority":94,"task_type":"recurring","frequency":"every-6h","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T15:50:45.770275+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T15:50:45.770275+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/economics_v2_credit_backprop_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 7, \"reasoning\": 7, \"safety\": 9}, \"completion_shas\": [\"80ff430f844feac2db29c3880c5be120c3198f4f\", \"5c2baebfefd613376b2969d27fa1fb6c1c81f906\", \"7db156597650e50a1a1a166722224abc7dc1e981\", \"7839b732c131007a58ca239ee3acd78ba7f95f47\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-13T08:00:44.234704+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"448b834fd46cdae45fde3c2a2421c336b8a11c37\", \"eb8127331cf7f65de1e6691de99c9356ec4a7ceb\", \"5416f2c3391e76b97ff67202fe2f9f5bc410d249\", \"c2ebd6f62cbf4694340fb349c0a7fd23a580a26f\", \"690b94fb4c4e008af6243ca67b3000c5985de970\", \"b6b140b0b09d20feb94a6db4060ed711187863d6\", \"0046f52170e0018f76baeb7c1f901e6b4e97c8ae\", \"9081f6a0ec329874aea4673e8492b990199a7292\", \"753004b4f98bfac906b422e0ffc3f1693bc7bc7c\", \"60883ba8d796b9091af7f547196db52b068811ea\", \"2570d14df2d94cc1850220891bcc8ad6ebb20309\", \"3e893043250e8b5874b35423b83ff786178704f9\", \"c61f85e2e01da18c578274fc9d3b4e9afd5d4f3c\", \"9622f8469de9974bc3bc2f0d451b5a0d0a61334b\", \"be0c6002963a6b2eb9aa230f727bf955087e130f\", \"48caba7f7f216507dcc14977a0b43cff350d69fe\", \"b6211b1090093e6ae88e761fe32193a45aa54d0a\", \"3845e6154f67a427139259228ec095bb0a74d4ba\", \"aac1602cac0a3166f1d3a890df527c4df5a7510d\", \"f282a96b5f9609fa5fc2b56358d5a58fe9f1ff23\", \"31d6b801203d1f4c637834a1dcc23f11205db6f8\", \"335e3d5ce779c3104f9df20c395f1a4bcf2046fe\"]}"},{"id":"1b83a79e-a502-432e-8793-2040900c774b","title":"[Senate] Quadratic funding for squad pools (extension of driver #15)","description":"Extension to driver #15 (quadratic funding). Let agents contribute small amounts of their wallets to research_squads they care about. The matching pool adds (Σ √cᵢ)² so 100 agents giving 10 tokens each becomes a ~10000-token match. Squads with broad funder support visibly grow their pool, signaling collective priority and pulling new members in. Persist via squad_grants(from_account=agent_id, purpose='quadratic_funding'). See research_squads_spec.md and economics_v2_credit_backprop_spec.md Tier 1 #1.","status":"open","priority":91,"task_type":"recurring","frequency":"every-6h","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T17:08:58.970599+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T17:08:58.970599+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-release: recurring task had no work this cycle","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/research_squads_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 7, \"reasoning\": 7}, \"completion_shas\": [\"f305cf72a44ff82b168fe7ef9fea54855ca9f989\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-13T08:04:01.567400+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"921723bc42aa07a4140613e30caaff8818e47877\", \"68e4c2b182cf4b7fc1ca47dae81da00207be516c\", \"9bc6fe71db4e0f3e68bb58d0ccf01602220744d3\", \"ec290b6bc4bcba599301faf5c0019ebad686409f\", \"5de202bb9d9e032b35fc481e78574470ca7c2f28\", \"c0f793ac4361f732182f7969d004087ec40ade20\", \"cb42924d0d69140b250a609a22a95640da61e0dc\", \"d6b3bd48f0d7d289e45ce36b15a0fecceedb07bd\", \"4edc149de2f8d205c6c8da15b2877c2d3462b546\", \"b4c1a99d990cb5cc3d623f5b5f78610df73ecd4e\", \"7b1d9fb9d81502d94f247a5af53e55ed3e53ab89\", \"3d9a383896cafd7ea5e5a08664771a11d59ba648\", \"942c7ea5266ab7852c2744175a572b8c154861a6\", \"1b7f1269b37f5eaaa21ca1db587cce30cee343fc\", \"ff27bdc59529bc12bd99d9888f1b616821bb4be5\", \"105ad5fa0710e2537db9cdc1fbe0fdfa95e6cdfa\", \"d6f41210156b43359c865f3aba2e315988d1f01a\", \"12fa83f458d21923121b7d97a7f500d6fcaba8f6\", \"999a537aaea4242f3d3dc2b08fd478d8120ba0ab\", \"990cec16acffb625b83ce19eb9a9c7cb029c45d2\", \"fbdeb7cce0a08bfde7f489e4279bf09e229c6992\", \"f987b2350c5d64c18fbadd3b37ee0d65a066b82f\", \"da79b9c23ddb09717cd1717c7b2b25fae8b04211\", \"c7e63834f95c22602cddcc3fc2e8f1b5988d0cfd\", \"63087e1ef62344e664cb5b42e7b0e976a20f73ca\", \"7b660f2dd04bc174ba9ee760d492c59dbcc11fcf\", \"0707edd3151494cd989ee3c8b22bf82e06b43a28\", \"5677388babd1bc7fb7b6c2faf6a9f06a6125cc24\", \"4b8be333f6339a96788d75d3bd25363178e24a3b\", \"e80affcf44906a44eb88f5be08a6560c1f487231\", \"8e0fe94b6b08b28d68465c95accffb792626e6b5\", \"c4f369d72858886642502d1ad3b6ff2e6f8c87c5\"]}"},{"id":"99d074c6-0da8-4c4b-8a97-ec2f807375d4","title":"[Exchange] Quadratic funding for dataset growth (driver #28)","description":"Recurring driver. For every dataset, let agents contribute small amounts of their wallets (squad pool, individual wallet) toward growing it. The matching pool adds (Σ √cᵢ)² so 50 small donors out-bid one whale. Persist via dataset_grants(dataset_id, from_account, amount, purpose='quadratic_funding'). Datasets with broad funder support visibly grow their pool, signaling collective priority and pulling new editor-agents in. See versioned_datasets_spec.md driver #28.","status":"done","priority":91,"task_type":"recurring","frequency":"every-6h","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T17:49:53.296115+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T18:22:26.387737+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Released by agent on cross-binding detection.","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/versioned_datasets_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 7, \"reasoning\": 7}, \"completion_shas\": [\"d6350fc2cdf88f0c31f1b66561dc3ad77d87e8e2\", \"55beb5bc14f0d894f240eaab9ad618fd3799897c\", \"efc0f7bba6e9d3c38d17d0abb772197a51ed8c20\", \"db065f296384f4c2439280a654681a9277377bbe\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-13T06:01:52.890157+00:00\", \"completion_shas_missing\": [\"036b4060ee354d0343bd713be5f261ae6e900c79\", \"9a856c1fef3b8c6181503034a29998e655af3f75\", \"d379aa1eab5da65c4993ab6b5ab62b00a384e662\", \"0e94dea04d216983071eb67ba15130e889bf3e97\"], \"_watchdog_repair_task_id\": \"8f1bc334-ac1c-4ec7-94c8-d3c989062013\", \"_watchdog_repair_created_at\": \"2026-04-17T18:20:26.716145+00:00\"}"},{"id":"6f40fe89-a988-4acd-b57f-0ca0c43c890c","title":"[Senate] SALVAGE: review lost commit 9622f846 (Exchange quadratic funding allocator spe)","description":"On 2026-04-11 the push_main race silently dropped 6 substantive commits from main. Each was independently implemented by another agent in parallel with mine. Today's audit recovered them as salvage branches on the remote so the work isn't lost. This task asks an agent to review one such commit and decide whether to merge it, reconcile it with the existing implementation, or close it as a duplicate.\n\nCommit: 9622f846 (113+ lines)\nBranch: salvage/lost-2026-04-11-9622f846\nTitle: Exchange quadratic funding allocator spec #15\n\nSteps: \n 1. git fetch origin salvage/lost-2026-04-11-9622f846\n 2. git log -p 9622f846 | less # review the diff\n 3. Compare against the current code in main (mine landed too — search for the relevant economics_drivers/*.py file)\n 4. Decide: (a) cherry-pick if it adds something mine doesn't, (b) close as duplicate if mine is the canonical, (c) reconcile both implementations into one\n 5. Document the decision in the task summary, citing the chosen path\n\nContext: see incident_push_main_ambiguous_ref_2026-04-11.md in agent memory.\n\n\n## REOPENED TASK — CRITICAL CONTEXT\n\nThis task was previously marked 'done' but the audit could not verify\nthe work actually landed on main. The original work may have been:\n- Lost to an orphan branch / failed push\n- Only a spec-file edit (no code changes)\n- Already addressed by other agents in the meantime\n- Made obsolete by subsequent work\n\n**Before doing anything else:**\n\n1. **Re-evaluate the task in light of CURRENT main state.** Read the\n spec and the relevant files on origin/main NOW. The original task\n may have been written against a state of the code that no longer\n exists.\n\n2. **Verify the task still advances SciDEX's aims.** If the system\n has evolved past the need for this work (different architecture,\n different priorities), close the task with reason \"obsolete: \"\n instead of doing it.\n\n3. **Check if it's already done.** Run `git log --grep=''`\n and read the related commits. If real work landed, complete the\n task with `--no-sha-check --summary 'Already done in '`.\n\n4. **Make sure your changes don't regress recent functionality.** Many\n agents have been working on this codebase. Before committing, run\n `git log --since='24 hours ago' -- ` to see what\n changed in your area, and verify you don't undo any of it.\n\n5. **Stay scoped.** Only do what this specific task asks for. Do not\n refactor, do not \"fix\" unrelated issues, do not add features that\n weren't requested. Scope creep at this point is regression risk.\n\nIf you cannot do this task safely (because it would regress, conflict\nwith current direction, or the requirements no longer apply), escalate\nvia `orchestra escalate` with a clear explanation instead of committing.\n","status":"done","priority":90,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-16T16:07:32.252738+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-16T16:07:32.252738+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/6f40fe89_a98_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"analysis\": 7, \"reasoning\": 6}, \"_stall_skip_providers\": [], \"_stall_requeued_by\": \"max_outlook\", \"_stall_requeued_at\": \"2026-04-12 09:30:52\", \"_stall_skip_at\": {}, \"_stall_skip_pruned_at\": \"2026-04-14T10:37:14.022390+00:00\"}"},{"id":"62c14e36519b","title":"[Exchange] Implement virtual capital pools that agents manage as portfolios","description":"\n\n\n## REOPENED TASK — CRITICAL CONTEXT\n\nThis task was previously marked 'done' but the audit could not verify\nthe work actually landed on main. The original work may have been:\n- Lost to an orphan branch / failed push\n- Only a spec-file edit (no code changes)\n- Already addressed by other agents in the meantime\n- Made obsolete by subsequent work\n\n**Before doing anything else:**\n\n1. **Re-evaluate the task in light of CURRENT main state.** Read the\n spec and the relevant files on origin/main NOW. The original task\n may have been written against a state of the code that no longer\n exists.\n\n2. **Verify the task still advances SciDEX's aims.** If the system\n has evolved past the need for this work (different architecture,\n different priorities), close the task with reason \"obsolete: \"\n instead of doing it.\n\n3. **Check if it's already done.** Run `git log --grep=''`\n and read the related commits. If real work landed, complete the\n task with `--no-sha-check --summary 'Already done in '`.\n\n4. **Make sure your changes don't regress recent functionality.** Many\n agents have been working on this codebase. Before committing, run\n `git log --since='24 hours ago' -- ` to see what\n changed in your area, and verify you don't undo any of it.\n\n5. **Stay scoped.** Only do what this specific task asks for. Do not\n refactor, do not \"fix\" unrelated issues, do not add features that\n weren't requested. Scope creep at this point is regression risk.\n\nIf you cannot do this task safely (because it would regress, conflict\nwith current direction, or the requirements no longer apply), escalate\nvia `orchestra escalate` with a clear explanation instead of committing.\n","status":"done","priority":81,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T05:06:30.859675+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T05:06:30.859675+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/62c14e36519b_exchange_implement_virtual_capital_pool_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"reasoning\": 6}, \"completion_shas\": [\"1e82343ac775dd01e22714d9f4cc3b3d0f7663a9\", \"ebf8ce986d4fca68c71ef6bb3b29328efa9c7bdf\", \"60002458b88cc4ed79678022044b12edce3c23c8\"], \"completion_shas_checked_at\": \"2026-04-17T05:06:30.836594+00:00\"}"},{"id":"ec88740b46eb","title":"[Exchange] Create market-maker agent that provides liquidity and price discovery","description":"\n\n\n## REOPENED TASK — CRITICAL CONTEXT\n\nThis task was previously marked 'done' but the audit could not verify\nthe work actually landed on main. The original work may have been:\n- Lost to an orphan branch / failed push\n- Only a spec-file edit (no code changes)\n- Already addressed by other agents in the meantime\n- Made obsolete by subsequent work\n\n**Before doing anything else:**\n\n1. **Re-evaluate the task in light of CURRENT main state.** Read the\n spec and the relevant files on origin/main NOW. The original task\n may have been written against a state of the code that no longer\n exists.\n\n2. **Verify the task still advances SciDEX's aims.** If the system\n has evolved past the need for this work (different architecture,\n different priorities), close the task with reason \"obsolete: \"\n instead of doing it.\n\n3. **Check if it's already done.** Run `git log --grep=''`\n and read the related commits. If real work landed, complete the\n task with `--no-sha-check --summary 'Already done in '`.\n\n4. **Make sure your changes don't regress recent functionality.** Many\n agents have been working on this codebase. Before committing, run\n `git log --since='24 hours ago' -- ` to see what\n changed in your area, and verify you don't undo any of it.\n\n5. **Stay scoped.** Only do what this specific task asks for. Do not\n refactor, do not \"fix\" unrelated issues, do not add features that\n weren't requested. Scope creep at this point is regression risk.\n\nIf you cannot do this task safely (because it would regress, conflict\nwith current direction, or the requirements no longer apply), escalate\nvia `orchestra escalate` with a clear explanation instead of committing.\n","status":"done","priority":80,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T09:01:17.796491+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T09:01:17.796491+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/ec88740b46eb_exchange_create_market_maker_agent_that_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}"},{"id":"500f966e79ed","title":"[Exchange] Add ROI tracking — measure returns on capital allocated to research directions","description":"\n\n\n## REOPENED TASK — CRITICAL CONTEXT\n\nThis task was previously marked 'done' but the audit could not verify\nthe work actually landed on main. The original work may have been:\n- Lost to an orphan branch / failed push\n- Only a spec-file edit (no code changes)\n- Already addressed by other agents in the meantime\n- Made obsolete by subsequent work\n\n**Before doing anything else:**\n\n1. **Re-evaluate the task in light of CURRENT main state.** Read the\n spec and the relevant files on origin/main NOW. The original task\n may have been written against a state of the code that no longer\n exists.\n\n2. **Verify the task still advances SciDEX's aims.** If the system\n has evolved past the need for this work (different architecture,\n different priorities), close the task with reason \"obsolete: \"\n instead of doing it.\n\n3. **Check if it's already done.** Run `git log --grep=''`\n and read the related commits. If real work landed, complete the\n task with `--no-sha-check --summary 'Already done in '`.\n\n4. **Make sure your changes don't regress recent functionality.** Many\n agents have been working on this codebase. Before committing, run\n `git log --since='24 hours ago' -- ` to see what\n changed in your area, and verify you don't undo any of it.\n\n5. **Stay scoped.** Only do what this specific task asks for. Do not\n refactor, do not \"fix\" unrelated issues, do not add features that\n weren't requested. Scope creep at this point is regression risk.\n\nIf you cannot do this task safely (because it would regress, conflict\nwith current direction, or the requirements no longer apply), escalate\nvia `orchestra escalate` with a clear explanation instead of committing.\n","status":"done","priority":78,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T10:56:16.806556+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T10:56:16.806556+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/500f966e79ed_exchange_add_roi_tracking_measure_retur_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{}"},{"id":"53b098aba384","title":"[Exchange] Design capital allocation model — how agents bid on ideas and fund work","description":"\n\n\n## REOPENED TASK — CRITICAL CONTEXT\n\nThis task was previously marked 'done' but the audit could not verify\nthe work actually landed on main. The original work may have been:\n- Lost to an orphan branch / failed push\n- Only a spec-file edit (no code changes)\n- Already addressed by other agents in the meantime\n- Made obsolete by subsequent work\n\n**Before doing anything else:**\n\n1. **Re-evaluate the task in light of CURRENT main state.** Read the\n spec and the relevant files on origin/main NOW. The original task\n may have been written against a state of the code that no longer\n exists.\n\n2. **Verify the task still advances SciDEX's aims.** If the system\n has evolved past the need for this work (different architecture,\n different priorities), close the task with reason \"obsolete: \"\n instead of doing it.\n\n3. **Check if it's already done.** Run `git log --grep=''`\n and read the related commits. If real work landed, complete the\n task with `--no-sha-check --summary 'Already done in '`.\n\n4. **Make sure your changes don't regress recent functionality.** Many\n agents have been working on this codebase. Before committing, run\n `git log --since='24 hours ago' -- ` to see what\n changed in your area, and verify you don't undo any of it.\n\n5. **Stay scoped.** Only do what this specific task asks for. Do not\n refactor, do not \"fix\" unrelated issues, do not add features that\n weren't requested. Scope creep at this point is regression risk.\n\nIf you cannot do this task safely (because it would regress, conflict\nwith current direction, or the requirements no longer apply), escalate\nvia `orchestra escalate` with a clear explanation instead of committing.\n","status":"done","priority":75,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T11:21:38.037354+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T11:21:38.037354+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/53b098aba384_exchange_design_capital_allocation_mode_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"reasoning\": 6}}"},{"id":"f3e22f670631","title":"[Exchange] Build bidding mechanism for gaps, hypotheses, and experiments","description":"\n\n\n## REOPENED TASK — CRITICAL CONTEXT\n\nThis task was previously marked 'done' but the audit could not verify\nthe work actually landed on main. The original work may have been:\n- Lost to an orphan branch / failed push\n- Only a spec-file edit (no code changes)\n- Already addressed by other agents in the meantime\n- Made obsolete by subsequent work\n\n**Before doing anything else:**\n\n1. **Re-evaluate the task in light of CURRENT main state.** Read the\n spec and the relevant files on origin/main NOW. The original task\n may have been written against a state of the code that no longer\n exists.\n\n2. **Verify the task still advances SciDEX's aims.** If the system\n has evolved past the need for this work (different architecture,\n different priorities), close the task with reason \"obsolete: \"\n instead of doing it.\n\n3. **Check if it's already done.** Run `git log --grep=''`\n and read the related commits. If real work landed, complete the\n task with `--no-sha-check --summary 'Already done in '`.\n\n4. **Make sure your changes don't regress recent functionality.** Many\n agents have been working on this codebase. Before committing, run\n `git log --since='24 hours ago' -- ` to see what\n changed in your area, and verify you don't undo any of it.\n\n5. **Stay scoped.** Only do what this specific task asks for. Do not\n refactor, do not \"fix\" unrelated issues, do not add features that\n weren't requested. Scope creep at this point is regression risk.\n\nIf you cannot do this task safely (because it would regress, conflict\nwith current direction, or the requirements no longer apply), escalate\nvia `orchestra escalate` with a clear explanation instead of committing.\n","status":"done","priority":75,"task_type":"one_shot","frequency":"","assigned_slot":"","started_at":null,"completed_at":"2026-04-17T10:43:05.989872+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-17T10:43:05.989872+00:00","summary":"","completion_notes":"Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main","last_error":"","time_estimate_hours":0.0,"completion_count":0,"spec_path":"docs/planning/specs/f3e22f670631_exchange_build_bidding_mechanism_for_ga_spec.md","provider":"any","payload_json":"{\"requirements\": {\"coding\": 7, \"reasoning\": 6}}"}],"reviews":[],"effectiveness":{},"spec_content":"---\ntitle: \"Quest: Market Participants\"\ndescription: \"Market participant agents that evaluate and allocate capital toward ideas, challenges, gaps, proposals, and experiments — now backed by the Capital Markets token economy\"\ntype: quest\nlayer: Exchange\npriority: 85\nstatus: active\nquest_id: q-d30262a7d801\nspec_path: docs/planning/specs/quest_market_participants_spec.md\n---\n\n# Quest: Market Participants\n\n**Layer:** Exchange\n**Priority:** P85\n**Status:** active\n\n## Vision\n\nMarket participant agents that evaluate and allocate capital toward ideas, challenges, gaps,\nproposals, and experiments. Agents bid on hypothesis quality, fund gap investigations, and\nstake on debate outcomes. Capital flows signal which research directions the ecosystem values.\n\n### Integration with Capital Markets\n\nThis quest is now backed by the **Capital Markets** quest (q-capital-markets), which provides:\n- **Token ledger** — virtual currency for capital allocation\n- **Bidding system** — capital-backed positions on artifacts\n- **LMSR market maker** — continuous liquidity for all markets\n- **Settlement** — positions resolve on lifecycle events\n- **Portfolio management** — P&L tracking per agent\n\nMarket participant agents use tokens from the Capital Markets system to express their\nevaluations. Their accuracy is tracked, and successful evaluators grow their capital\nand influence.\n\n### Participant Agent Strategies\n\nFrom q-artifact-quality-markets (exch-qm-02-PART):\n1. **Methodologist** — evaluates experimental design and statistical rigor\n2. **Replication Scout** — tracks whether findings are independently replicated\n3. **Provenance Auditor** — evaluates lineage completeness and source quality\n4. **Usage Tracker** — monitors citations, embeds, derivations as demand signal\n5. **Freshness Monitor** — identifies stale artifacts superseded by newer evidence\n6. **Consistency Checker** — cross-references claims against the knowledge graph\n7. **Value Assessor** — reviews contributions at lifecycle milestones and assigns bonus\n credits to participants whose work proved most valuable. Assessors earn reputation\n from the accuracy of their credit assignments (do their highly-rated contributions\n also end up market-priced highly?). This creates a self-correcting credit system.\n\n### First-Mover Recognition\n\nParticipant agents also track and credit first-movers. When multiple agents evaluate the\nsame artifact, the first reviewer earns a 2x bonus. This incentivizes agents to evaluate\nnew artifacts quickly rather than waiting to follow consensus — creating faster and more\nindependent price discovery.\n\nTo make this real, participant outputs need an explicit staging area. Explorers,\nanalysts, and auditors should be able to register findings and nominate\nartifacts into a review queue before those items affect prices or debate flow.\nThat nomination queue is the bridge between raw agent work and market action.\n\n## Open Tasks\n\n- [ ] [Exchange] Design capital allocation model — how agents bid and fund work (P82)\n- [ ] [Exchange] Implement virtual capital pools as agent portfolios (P81)\n- [ ] [Exchange] Create market-maker agent providing liquidity and price discovery (P80)\n- [ ] [Exchange] Build bidding mechanism for gaps, hypotheses, and experiments (P79)\n- [ ] [Exchange] Add ROI tracking — returns on capital allocated to research (P78)\n\n## Related Quests\n\n| Quest | Relationship |\n|-------|-------------|\n| **Capital Markets** (q-capital-markets, P91) | Provides the token economy that backs participant actions |\n| **Artifact Quality Markets** (q-artifact-quality-markets, P92) | Participant agents evaluate quality for these markets |\n| **Crypto Wallets** (q-crypto-wallets, P80) | Future migration to on-chain wallets |\n\n## Success Criteria\n\n- [ ] At least 3 distinct participant strategies operational\n- [ ] Participant accuracy tracked and feeds into believability\n- [ ] Capital allocation demonstrably directs research effort\n- [ ] ROI measurable per agent per strategy\n- [ ] Significant participant findings can be nominated for debate/market review\n- [ ] Contribution attribution is queryable per participant and per nominated artifact\n- [ ] High-signal nominations can be converted into queued follow-up work without manual DB edits\n- [ ] Accepted follow-up outcomes can settle token rewards back to the originating participant\n\n## Work Log\n\n_No entries yet._\n","spec_html":"

Quest: Market Participants

Layer: Exchange\nPriority: P85\nStatus: active

Vision

Market participant agents that evaluate and allocate capital toward ideas, challenges, gaps,
proposals, and experiments. Agents bid on hypothesis quality, fund gap investigations, and
stake on debate outcomes. Capital flows signal which research directions the ecosystem values.

Integration with Capital Markets

This quest is now backed by the Capital Markets quest (q-capital-markets), which provides:\n

  • Token ledger — virtual currency for capital allocation
    • \n
  • Bidding system — capital-backed positions on artifacts
    • \n
  • LMSR market maker — continuous liquidity for all markets
    • \n
  • Settlement — positions resolve on lifecycle events
    • \n
  • Portfolio management — P&L tracking per agent
    • \n

Market participant agents use tokens from the Capital Markets system to express their
evaluations. Their accuracy is tracked, and successful evaluators grow their capital
and influence.

Participant Agent Strategies

From q-artifact-quality-markets (exch-qm-02-PART):\n

  • Methodologist — evaluates experimental design and statistical rigor
    • \n
  • Replication Scout — tracks whether findings are independently replicated
    • \n
  • Provenance Auditor — evaluates lineage completeness and source quality
    • \n
  • Usage Tracker — monitors citations, embeds, derivations as demand signal
    • \n
  • Freshness Monitor — identifies stale artifacts superseded by newer evidence
    • \n
  • Consistency Checker — cross-references claims against the knowledge graph
    • \n
  • Value Assessor — reviews contributions at lifecycle milestones and assigns bonus
    • \n credits to participants whose work proved most valuable. Assessors earn reputation
    from the accuracy of their credit assignments (do their highly-rated contributions
    also end up market-priced highly?). This creates a self-correcting credit system.

    First-Mover Recognition

    Participant agents also track and credit first-movers. When multiple agents evaluate the
    same artifact, the first reviewer earns a 2x bonus. This incentivizes agents to evaluate
    new artifacts quickly rather than waiting to follow consensus — creating faster and more
    independent price discovery.

    To make this real, participant outputs need an explicit staging area. Explorers,
    analysts, and auditors should be able to register findings and nominate
    artifacts into a review queue before those items affect prices or debate flow.
    That nomination queue is the bridge between raw agent work and market action.

    Open Tasks

    ☐ [Exchange] Design capital allocation model — how agents bid and fund work (P82)
    \n
    ☐ [Exchange] Implement virtual capital pools as agent portfolios (P81)
    \n
    ☐ [Exchange] Create market-maker agent providing liquidity and price discovery (P80)
    \n
    ☐ [Exchange] Build bidding mechanism for gaps, hypotheses, and experiments (P79)
    \n
    ☐ [Exchange] Add ROI tracking — returns on capital allocated to research (P78)

    Related Quests

    QuestRelationship
    Capital Markets (q-capital-markets, P91)Provides the token economy that backs participant actions
    Artifact Quality Markets (q-artifact-quality-markets, P92)Participant agents evaluate quality for these markets
    Crypto Wallets (q-crypto-wallets, P80)Future migration to on-chain wallets
    \n

    Success Criteria

    ☐ At least 3 distinct participant strategies operational
    \n
    ☐ Participant accuracy tracked and feeds into believability
    \n
    ☐ Capital allocation demonstrably directs research effort
    \n
    ☐ ROI measurable per agent per strategy
    \n
    ☐ Significant participant findings can be nominated for debate/market review
    \n
    ☐ Contribution attribution is queryable per participant and per nominated artifact
    \n
    ☐ High-signal nominations can be converted into queued follow-up work without manual DB edits
    \n
    ☐ Accepted follow-up outcomes can settle token rewards back to the originating participant

    Work Log

    _No entries yet._

    ","spec_file":"quest_market_participants_spec.md","commits":[{"hash":"abc8d0179","message":"[Exchange] Verify /challenge broken links are false positives: all 36 pages return 200 [task:e5a1490f-9ab6-4275-a96b-bd34ceb84fcf]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"440d6072c","message":"[Senate] Final work log update: document branch push to remote [task:c2780f51-4c91-4cae-a1ff-4edaf6375c59]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"8eefea2c0","message":"[Atlas] Add redirects in api.py for /site/notebooks/ and root-level .ipynb URLs to /notebooks/ path [task:f92194bf-f23c-4bf3-97d4-676c02f5fb42]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"bdf2e04e8","message":"[Atlas] Document /mission HTTP 0 fix: already addressed in c5d7a696 [task:e50f7fed-ccde-4104-b98a-205bb500e792]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"f39b5d3b0","message":"[Atlas] Fix broken /entity links: clean corrupted data + add cleanup script [task:326c7abd-3ad2-4ae5-9a0e-e9981d611890]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"a4954541c","message":"Squash merge: orchestra/task/09b3a393-broken-links-in-api-http-0-30-links (1 commits)","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"40b62c4b8","message":"[Atlas] Verify /api broken links: all 10 endpoints HTTP 200, no code changes needed [task:09b3a393-777f-4379-85c6-2bf55f6e69c0]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"6e54e1ccc","message":"On orchestra/task/326c7abd-broken-links-in-entity-http-400-64-links: stash unrelated changes","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"53f087f8e","message":"index on orchestra/task/326c7abd-broken-links-in-entity-http-400-64-links: f3b466710 [Atlas] Add /mission→/missions redirect in api.py; confirm /mission broken links are false positives [task:c0d66faa-91be-41e3-909d-d6359c5b936e]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"58b5eb786","message":"[Atlas] Verify /analysis broken links: all 10 pages HTTP 200, false positive [task:a7c6d6d2-17bb-4e1c-b131-10677c65e9d0]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"0be6ce64a","message":"[Senate] Update spec work log: service verified operational, no code changes needed [task:c2780f51-4c91-4cae-a1ff-4edaf6375c59]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"53c7da02f","message":"Squash merge: orchestra/task/c13f680a-broken-links-in-site-http-404-198-links (1 commits)","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"20a14e537","message":"[Atlas] Fix /site/notebooks/ 404 in api.py: add redirect to /notebooks/ route [task:c13f680a-60bf-49f3-aa42-a05602d77405]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"52e043bda","message":"Squash merge: orchestra/task/c5d7a696-broken-links-in-target-http-0-765-links (3 commits)","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"aead3c46d","message":"[Atlas] Restore nb-top5- prefix-stripping fallback removed in prior commit [task:c5d7a696-2296-468a-83a2-2d3cabc6901e]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"1786c8cc4","message":"[Atlas] Wire up suppress_transient_http0_noise() in link checker to prevent false-positive tasks [task:c5d7a696-2296-468a-83a2-2d3cabc6901e]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"13c833f16","message":"[Atlas] Add redirects for /site/notebooks/ and root-level .ipynb URLs to /notebooks/ path [task:f92194bf-f23c-4bf3-97d4-676c02f5fb42]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"25d912117","message":"[Senate] Update spec work log: document MERGE GATE rebase fix [task:c2780f51-4c91-4cae-a1ff-4edaf6375c59]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"06151c073","message":"[Senate] Update spec: verify service operational, no code changes needed [task:c2780f51-4c91-4cae-a1ff-4edaf6375c59]","date":"2026-04-17"},{"hash":"dc15730ae","message":"[Atlas] Fix /notebook top5-SDA-* broken links: add prefix-stripping fallback in notebook_detail [task:c13f680a-60bf-49f3-aa42-a05602d77405]","date":"2026-04-17"}],"related_quests":[{"name":"Exchange","layer":"Exchange","priority":95,"status":"active","description":"Hypothesis prediction market — score, track, and compare hypotheses","task_count":865,"done_count":107},{"name":"Crypto Wallets","layer":"Exchange","priority":92,"status":"active","description":"Crypto wallet integration for agents — each agent gets a wallet for receiving and allocating funds. Supports token-based capital allocation, on-chain audit trails, multi-sig governance for large allocations, and integration with Exchange market mechanisms. Foundation for decentralized agent-driven research funding.","task_count":5,"done_count":5},{"name":"Artifact Quality Markets","layer":"Exchange","priority":92,"status":"active","description":"Market pricing for all artifact types — participant agents, lifecycle governance, reputation staking, debate feedback","task_count":9,"done_count":8},{"name":"Capital Markets","layer":"Exchange","priority":77,"status":"active","description":"Virtual token economy with bidding, portfolios, settlement, and capital-weighted resource allocation — simulating blockchain","task_count":16,"done_count":9},{"name":"Hypothesis Diversity","layer":"Exchange","priority":60,"status":"active","description":"GFlowNet-inspired diverse hypothesis portfolio maintenance. Instead of collapsing to top-scoring hypotheses, maintain competing explanations across different mechanistic families. Anti-monoculture rule: if >70% of hypotheses for a gap share the same mechanism, trigger exploration of alternatives. Diversity score measures how many distinct mechanistic explanations are represented. Resource allocation proportional to composite_score × diversity_bonus.","task_count":3,"done_count":3}]}