Neuroinflammation and Microglial Priming in Early Alzheimer's Disease¶
Notebook: nb-SDA-2026-04-04-gap-20260404-microglial-priming-early-ad · Analysis: SDA-2026-04-04-gap-20260404-microglial-priming-early-ad · Domain: neurodegeneration · Data collected: 2026-04-12 11:37 UTC
Research Question¶
How does microglial priming and neuroinflammation contribute to the progression of early Alzheimer's Disease?
Analysis Summary¶
This analysis generated 14 hypotheses on neuroinflammation and microglial priming in early alzheimer's disease. A 4-round multi-agent debate (Theorist vs Skeptic vs Domain Expert vs Synthesizer) evaluated the hypotheses and produced a debate quality score of 0.63.
This notebook is generated from real Forge tool calls — all data below is from live API
responses cached at data/forge_cache/microglial_priming_ad/. Re-run
python3 scripts/generate_showcase_notebooks.py --analysis SDA-2026-04-04-gap-20260404-microglial-priming-early-ad --force
to refresh against the live APIs.
Target gene set: TREM2, TYROBP, CST7, CD33, SPI1, BIN1, INPP5D, MEF2C (and 2 more).
1. Setup & Data Loading¶
import json, sqlite3, sys
from pathlib import Path
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import matplotlib.patches as mpatches
import numpy as np
matplotlib.rcParams['figure.dpi'] = 110
matplotlib.rcParams['figure.facecolor'] = 'white'
matplotlib.use('Agg')
REPO = Path('.').resolve()
CACHE = REPO / 'data' / 'forge_cache' / 'microglial_priming_ad'
ANALYSIS_ID = 'SDA-2026-04-04-gap-20260404-microglial-priming-early-ad'
DB_PATH = Path('/home/ubuntu/scidex/scidex.db')
def load_cache(name):
p = CACHE / f'{name}.json'
return json.loads(p.read_text()) if p.exists() else {}
print(f"Repo: {REPO}")
print(f"Cache dir: {CACHE} (exists={CACHE.exists()})")
print(f"Analysis: {ANALYSIS_ID}")
Repo: /home/ubuntu/scidex/.claude/worktrees/task-25702d84-ffc9-461f-ba96-3f7d3c97cd2b Cache dir: /home/ubuntu/scidex/.claude/worktrees/task-25702d84-ffc9-461f-ba96-3f7d3c97cd2b/data/forge_cache/microglial_priming_ad (exists=True) Analysis: SDA-2026-04-04-gap-20260404-microglial-priming-early-ad
2. Hypothesis Landscape¶
14 hypotheses were generated and scored on 10 dimensions. The composite score combines confidence, novelty, feasibility, and impact via geometric mean.
# Hypothesis data from DB (top 20 by composite score)
hyp_data = [
{
"title": "Epigenetic Reprogramming of Microglial Memory",
"target_gene": "DNMT3A, HDAC1/2",
"composite_score": 0.5003,
"confidence_score": 0.6,
"novelty_score": 0.8,
"feasibility_score": 0.8,
"impact_score": 0.7
},
{
"title": "Microbiota-Microglia Axis Modulation",
"target_gene": "Multiple",
"composite_score": 0.4926,
"confidence_score": 0.3,
"novelty_score": 0.6,
"feasibility_score": 0.6,
"impact_score": 0.5
},
{
"title": "Synaptic Pruning Precision Therapy",
"target_gene": "C1QA, C3, CX3CR1, CX3CL1",
"composite_score": 0.4654,
"confidence_score": 0.7,
"novelty_score": 0.7,
"feasibility_score": 0.6,
"impact_score": 0.8
},
{
"title": "Cardiovascular-Neuroinflammatory Dual Targeting",
"target_gene": "TNF/IL6",
"composite_score": 0.4623,
"confidence_score": 0.5,
"novelty_score": 0.4,
"feasibility_score": 0.8,
"impact_score": 0.6
},
{
"title": "IGFBPL1-Mediated Homeostatic Restoration",
"target_gene": "IGFBPL1",
"composite_score": 0.446,
"confidence_score": 0.8,
"novelty_score": 0.9,
"feasibility_score": 0.3,
"impact_score": 0.8
},
{
"title": "Cardiovascular-Neuroinflammation Crosstalk Interruption",
"target_gene": "IL1B, TNFA, NLRP3",
"composite_score": 0.4366,
"confidence_score": 0.5,
"novelty_score": 0.5,
"feasibility_score": 0.8,
"impact_score": 0.7
},
{
"title": "APOE4-Lipid Metabolism Correction",
"target_gene": "APOE",
"composite_score": 0.4363,
"confidence_score": 0.4,
"novelty_score": 0.7,
"feasibility_score": 0.4,
"impact_score": 0.6
},
{
"title": "Perinatal Immune Challenge Prevention",
"target_gene": "Multiple",
"composite_score": 0.4323,
"confidence_score": 0.2,
"novelty_score": 0.9,
"feasibility_score": 0.1,
"impact_score": 0.4
},
{
"title": "Gut-Brain Axis Microbiome Modulation",
"target_gene": "GPR43, GPR109A",
"composite_score": 0.4208,
"confidence_score": 0.4,
"novelty_score": 0.8,
"feasibility_score": 0.4,
"impact_score": 0.6
},
{
"title": "IGFBPL1-Mediated Microglial Reprogramming",
"target_gene": "IGFBPL1",
"composite_score": 0.4143,
"confidence_score": 0.4,
"novelty_score": 0.9,
"feasibility_score": 0.3,
"impact_score": 0.8
},
{
"title": "Complement-Mediated Synaptic Protection",
"target_gene": "C1QA",
"composite_score": 0.4103,
"confidence_score": 0.4,
"novelty_score": 0.6,
"feasibility_score": 0.5,
"impact_score": 0.7
},
{
"title": "Temporal Gating of Microglial Responses",
"target_gene": "CLOCK, ARNTL",
"composite_score": 0.3888,
"confidence_score": 0.2,
"novelty_score": 0.9,
"feasibility_score": 0.3,
"impact_score": 0.4
},
{
"title": "Perinatal Hypoxia-Primed Microglia Targeting",
"target_gene": "HIF1A, NFKB1",
"composite_score": 0.385,
"confidence_score": 0.3,
"novelty_score": 0.7,
"feasibility_score": 0.2,
"impact_score": 0.5
},
{
"title": "TREM2-P2RY12 Balance Restoration Therapy",
"target_gene": "TREM2",
"composite_score": 0.3706,
"confidence_score": 0.3,
"novelty_score": 0.8,
"feasibility_score": 0.2,
"impact_score": 0.6
}
]
df = pd.DataFrame(hyp_data)
print(f"{len(df)} hypotheses (showing top 20 of 14 total)\n")
print(df[['title', 'target_gene', 'composite_score', 'confidence_score',
'novelty_score', 'feasibility_score', 'impact_score']].to_string(index=False))
14 hypotheses (showing top 20 of 14 total)
title target_gene composite_score confidence_score novelty_score feasibility_score impact_score
Epigenetic Reprogramming of Microglial Memory DNMT3A, HDAC1/2 0.5003 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7
Microbiota-Microglia Axis Modulation Multiple 0.4926 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5
Synaptic Pruning Precision Therapy C1QA, C3, CX3CR1, CX3CL1 0.4654 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8
Cardiovascular-Neuroinflammatory Dual Targeting TNF/IL6 0.4623 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6
IGFBPL1-Mediated Homeostatic Restoration IGFBPL1 0.4460 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.8
Cardiovascular-Neuroinflammation Crosstalk Interruption IL1B, TNFA, NLRP3 0.4366 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7
APOE4-Lipid Metabolism Correction APOE 0.4363 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6
Perinatal Immune Challenge Prevention Multiple 0.4323 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.4
Gut-Brain Axis Microbiome Modulation GPR43, GPR109A 0.4208 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.6
IGFBPL1-Mediated Microglial Reprogramming IGFBPL1 0.4143 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.8
Complement-Mediated Synaptic Protection C1QA 0.4103 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7
Temporal Gating of Microglial Responses CLOCK, ARNTL 0.3888 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.4
Perinatal Hypoxia-Primed Microglia Targeting HIF1A, NFKB1 0.3850 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.5
TREM2-P2RY12 Balance Restoration Therapy TREM2 0.3706 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.6
# Score distribution plot
fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(14, 5))
# Left: composite scores bar chart
colors = ['#3fb950' if s >= 0.5 else '#d29922' if s >= 0.35 else '#f85149'
for s in df['composite_score']]
axes[0].barh(range(len(df)), df['composite_score'], color=colors, edgecolor='#333')
axes[0].set_yticks(range(len(df)))
axes[0].set_yticklabels([t[:40] + '...' if len(t) > 40 else t for t in df['title']],
fontsize=7)
axes[0].set_xlabel('Composite Score')
axes[0].set_title('Hypothesis Ranking by Composite Score')
axes[0].axvline(0.5, color='#3fb950', linestyle='--', alpha=0.5, label='0.5 threshold')
axes[0].legend(fontsize=8)
axes[0].invert_yaxis()
# Right: dimension scatter
dims = ['confidence_score', 'novelty_score', 'feasibility_score', 'impact_score']
dim_labels = ['Confidence', 'Novelty', 'Feasibility', 'Impact']
x = np.arange(len(dims))
width = 0.6 / max(len(df), 1)
for i, row in df.iterrows():
vals = [row[d] for d in dims]
axes[1].bar(x + i * width, vals, width, alpha=0.6,
color=plt.cm.viridis(i / max(len(df), 1)))
axes[1].set_xticks(x + (len(df) * width) / 2)
axes[1].set_xticklabels(dim_labels)
axes[1].set_ylabel('Score')
axes[1].set_title('Scoring Dimensions (all hypotheses)')
axes[1].set_ylim(0, 1.1)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig('/tmp/hyp_scores.png', dpi=100, bbox_inches='tight')
plt.show()
print("Score distributions plotted")
Score distributions plotted
3. Literature Evidence (PubMed)¶
PubMed search: "microglial priming neuroinflammation Alzheimer disease TREM2 DAM" (1 results retrieved).
This section shows the most relevant recent papers supporting the hypotheses in this analysis.
# PubMed results from Forge cache
pubmed_results = [
{
"title": "The temporal and stimuli-specific effects of LPS and IFN\u03b3 on microglial activation.",
"year": "2026",
"pmid": "41695273",
"abstract": ""
}
]
print(f"Retrieved {len(pubmed_results)} PubMed articles\n")
for i, paper in enumerate(pubmed_results[:10], 1):
year = paper.get('year') or paper.get('pubdate', '')
pmid = paper.get('pmid') or paper.get('pubmed_id', '')
title = paper.get('title', 'N/A')
print(f"{i:2d}. [{year}] {title[:100]}")
if pmid:
print(f" PMID: {pmid}")
abstract = paper.get('abstract', '')
if abstract:
print(f" {abstract[:200]}...")
print()
Retrieved 1 PubMed articles
1. [2026] The temporal and stimuli-specific effects of LPS and IFNγ on microglial activation.
PMID: 41695273
4. Target Gene Annotations (MyGene.info)¶
Gene annotations for the 6 focal genes from this analysis. Data fetched from MyGene.info, a comprehensive gene annotation resource.
gene_annotations = [
{
"symbol": "TREM2",
"name": "triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2",
"entrez": "",
"summary": "This gene encodes a membrane protein that forms a receptor signaling complex with the TYRO protein tyrosine kinase binding protein. The encoded protein functions in immune response and may be involved"
},
{
"symbol": "TYROBP",
"name": "transmembrane immune signaling adaptor TYROBP",
"entrez": "",
"summary": "This gene encodes a transmembrane signaling polypeptide which contains an immunoreceptor tyrosine-based activation motif (ITAM) in its cytoplasmic domain. The encoded protein may associate with the ki"
},
{
"symbol": "CST7",
"name": "cystatin F",
"entrez": "",
"summary": "The cystatin superfamily encompasses proteins that contain multiple cystatin-like sequences. Some of the members are active cysteine protease inhibitors, while others have lost or perhaps never acquir"
},
{
"symbol": "CD33",
"name": "CD33 molecule",
"entrez": "",
"summary": "Enables protein phosphatase binding activity and sialic acid binding activity. Involved in several processes, including negative regulation of cytokine production; negative regulation of monocyte acti"
},
{
"symbol": "SPI1",
"name": "Spi-1 proto-oncogene",
"entrez": "",
"summary": "This gene encodes an ETS-domain transcription factor that activates gene expression during myeloid and B-lymphoid cell development. The nuclear protein binds to a purine-rich sequence known as the PU-"
},
{
"symbol": "BIN1",
"name": "bridging integrator 1",
"entrez": "",
"summary": "This gene encodes several isoforms of a nucleocytoplasmic adaptor protein, one of which was initially identified as a MYC-interacting protein with features of a tumor suppressor. Isoforms that are exp"
}
]
print(f"Gene annotations for {len(gene_annotations)} focal genes:\n")
for g in gene_annotations:
print(f" {g['symbol']} — {g['name']}")
if g['summary'] != '—':
print(f" {g['summary'][:180]}")
print()
Gene annotations for 6 focal genes:
TREM2 — triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2
This gene encodes a membrane protein that forms a receptor signaling complex with the TYRO protein tyrosine kinase binding protein. The encoded protein functions in immune response
TYROBP — transmembrane immune signaling adaptor TYROBP
This gene encodes a transmembrane signaling polypeptide which contains an immunoreceptor tyrosine-based activation motif (ITAM) in its cytoplasmic domain. The encoded protein may a
CST7 — cystatin F
The cystatin superfamily encompasses proteins that contain multiple cystatin-like sequences. Some of the members are active cysteine protease inhibitors, while others have lost or
CD33 — CD33 molecule
Enables protein phosphatase binding activity and sialic acid binding activity. Involved in several processes, including negative regulation of cytokine production; negative regulat
SPI1 — Spi-1 proto-oncogene
This gene encodes an ETS-domain transcription factor that activates gene expression during myeloid and B-lymphoid cell development. The nuclear protein binds to a purine-rich seque
BIN1 — bridging integrator 1
This gene encodes several isoforms of a nucleocytoplasmic adaptor protein, one of which was initially identified as a MYC-interacting protein with features of a tumor suppressor. I
5. Protein Interaction Network (STRING DB)¶
STRING protein-protein interaction network for the focal gene set (score threshold ≥ 400, physical interactions). Nodes are sized by degree centrality.
string_interactions = [
{
"protein1": "CD33",
"protein2": "TYROBP",
"score": 0.717,
"nscore": 0,
"fscore": 0,
"pscore": 0,
"ascore": 0,
"escore": 0,
"dscore": 0,
"tscore": 0.717
},
{
"protein1": "CD33",
"protein2": "TREM2",
"score": 0.812,
"nscore": 0,
"fscore": 0,
"pscore": 0,
"ascore": 0,
"escore": 0,
"dscore": 0,
"tscore": 0.812
},
{
"protein1": "TYROBP",
"protein2": "INPP5D",
"score": 0.773,
"nscore": 0,
"fscore": 0,
"pscore": 0,
"ascore": 0,
"escore": 0,
"dscore": 0,
"tscore": 0.773
},
{
"protein1": "TYROBP",
"protein2": "TREM2",
"score": 0.998,
"nscore": 0,
"fscore": 0,
"pscore": 0,
"ascore": 0,
"escore": 0.526,
"dscore": 0.8,
"tscore": 0.982
}
]
if string_interactions:
try:
import networkx as nx
G = nx.Graph()
for edge in string_interactions:
if isinstance(edge, dict):
a = edge.get('preferredName_A') or edge.get('stringId_A', '')
b = edge.get('preferredName_B') or edge.get('stringId_B', '')
score = float(edge.get('score', edge.get('combined_score', 0.5)))
if a and b and a != b:
G.add_edge(a, b, weight=score)
if G.number_of_nodes() > 0:
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 8))
pos = nx.spring_layout(G, seed=42, k=2.5)
degrees = dict(G.degree())
node_sizes = [300 + degrees.get(n, 1) * 200 for n in G.nodes()]
target_genes = ['TREM2', 'TYROBP', 'CST7', 'CD33', 'SPI1', 'BIN1', 'INPP5D', 'MEF2C']
node_colors = ['#4fc3f7' if n in target_genes else '#58a6ff' for n in G.nodes()]
nx.draw_networkx_edges(G, pos, alpha=0.3, edge_color='#8b949e', ax=ax)
nx.draw_networkx_nodes(G, pos, node_size=node_sizes,
node_color=node_colors, alpha=0.85, ax=ax)
nx.draw_networkx_labels(G, pos, font_size=8, font_color='white', ax=ax)
ax.set_title(f'STRING Protein Interaction Network ({G.number_of_nodes()} genes, {G.number_of_edges()} edges)')
ax.axis('off')
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig('/tmp/string_network.png', dpi=100, bbox_inches='tight')
plt.show()
print(f"Network: {G.number_of_nodes()} nodes, {G.number_of_edges()} edges")
top5 = sorted(degrees.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)[:5]
print(f"Hub genes by degree: {top5}")
else:
print("No edges with valid gene names found in STRING data")
except ImportError:
print("networkx not installed — skipping network visualization")
except Exception as e:
print(f"Network plot error: {e}")
else:
print("No STRING interaction data available (Forge cache empty or API unavailable)")
print("Run with --force to fetch fresh data from STRING DB")
No edges with valid gene names found in STRING data
6. Multi-Agent Debate Analysis¶
The debate ran 4 rounds with personas: theorist, skeptic, domain_expert, synthesizer. Debate question: "Neuroinflammation and microglial priming in early Alzheimer's Disease..."
Quality score: 0.63 (scale 0–1, where >0.6 = high quality deliberation).
# Pull debate data from DB
try:
db = sqlite3.connect(str(DB_PATH))
debate_df = pd.read_sql_query('''
SELECT id, question, num_rounds, quality_score, personas_used, created_at
FROM debate_sessions WHERE analysis_id = ?
''', db, params=(ANALYSIS_ID,))
db.close()
print(f"Debate sessions for {ANALYSIS_ID}:")
print(debate_df.to_string(index=False))
except Exception as e:
print(f"DB query skipped: {e}")
Debate sessions for SDA-2026-04-04-gap-20260404-microglial-priming-early-ad:
id question num_rounds quality_score personas_used created_at
sess_SDA-2026-04-04-gap-20260404-microglial-priming-early-ad Neuroinflammation and microglial priming in early Alzheimer's Disease 4 0.63 ["theorist", "skeptic", "domain_expert", "synthesizer"] 2026-04-04T06:29:35.776865
7. Score Statistics & Top Hypotheses¶
# Statistical summary of hypothesis scores
if len(df) > 0:
print("=== Score Distribution Statistics ===")
print(df[['composite_score', 'confidence_score', 'novelty_score',
'feasibility_score', 'impact_score']].describe().round(3))
print("\n=== Top 5 Hypotheses by Composite Score ===")
top5 = df.nlargest(5, 'composite_score')
for i, (_, row) in enumerate(top5.iterrows(), 1):
print(f"\n{i}. {row['title']}")
print(f" Target: {row['target_gene']} | Composite: {row['composite_score']:.3f}")
print(f" Conf={row['confidence_score']:.2f} Nov={row['novelty_score']:.2f} "
f"Feas={row['feasibility_score']:.2f} Impact={row['impact_score']:.2f}")
=== Score Distribution Statistics ===
composite_score confidence_score novelty_score feasibility_score \
count 14.000 14.000 14.000 14.000
mean 0.433 0.429 0.729 0.450
std 0.039 0.177 0.159 0.238
min 0.371 0.200 0.400 0.100
25% 0.411 0.300 0.625 0.300
50% 0.434 0.400 0.750 0.400
75% 0.458 0.500 0.875 0.600
max 0.500 0.800 0.900 0.800
impact_score
count 14.000
mean 0.621
std 0.137
min 0.400
25% 0.525
50% 0.600
75% 0.700
max 0.800
=== Top 5 Hypotheses by Composite Score ===
1. Epigenetic Reprogramming of Microglial Memory
Target: DNMT3A, HDAC1/2 | Composite: 0.500
Conf=0.60 Nov=0.80 Feas=0.80 Impact=0.70
2. Microbiota-Microglia Axis Modulation
Target: Multiple | Composite: 0.493
Conf=0.30 Nov=0.60 Feas=0.60 Impact=0.50
3. Synaptic Pruning Precision Therapy
Target: C1QA, C3, CX3CR1, CX3CL1 | Composite: 0.465
Conf=0.70 Nov=0.70 Feas=0.60 Impact=0.80
4. Cardiovascular-Neuroinflammatory Dual Targeting
Target: TNF/IL6 | Composite: 0.462
Conf=0.50 Nov=0.40 Feas=0.80 Impact=0.60
5. IGFBPL1-Mediated Homeostatic Restoration
Target: IGFBPL1 | Composite: 0.446
Conf=0.80 Nov=0.90 Feas=0.30 Impact=0.80
8. Conclusions & Research Directions¶
Key Findings¶
- 14 hypotheses generated, with the top hypothesis (Epigenetic Reprogramming of Microglial Memory...) targeting DNMT3A, HDAC1/2 (composite score: 0.500).
- The multi-agent debate produced a quality score of 0.63 across 4 rounds, indicating strong deliberation quality.
- 20 papers from the SciDEX literature graph support the hypotheses.
- PubMed search retrieved 1 relevant recent publications.
Top Research Directions¶
Based on the hypothesis landscape and evidence mining, the most promising research directions are:
High-confidence hypotheses (score ≥ 0.5):
- Epigenetic Reprogramming of Microglial Memory...
Most novel directions (novelty > 0.4):
- Epigenetic Reprogramming of Microglial Memory... - Microbiota-Microglia Axis Modulation... - Synaptic Pruning Precision Therapy...
Next Steps¶
- Test top hypotheses in disease model systems
- Prioritize therapeutic targets with existing drug scaffolds
- Cross-reference with clinical trial databases (ClinicalTrials.gov)
- Expand knowledge graph with follow-up literature mining
Notebook generated by SciDEX Forge pipeline · 2026-04-12 11:37 UTC · Analysis page