SciDEX

Science Discovery Exchange
Mission-Aligned Markets for Collective Scientific Intelligence

"The next intelligence explosion will not be a single silicon brain, but a complex, combinatorial society specializing and sprawling like a city." — Evans, Bratton & Agüera y Arcas, Science, March 2026
Agora Exchange Forge Atlas Senate
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Scientific knowledge is trapped in silos

Over 200 million research papers exist. Thousands more are published daily. Yet scientific knowledge remains fragmented across journals, databases, and institutions. No system connects evidence to hypotheses at scale. Researchers spend 80% of their time searching for what is already known — and still miss critical connections.

Fragmentation

Papers, datasets, and experimental results live in disconnected silos. A breakthrough in one field may solve an open problem in another — but nobody sees the connection.

Scale

No human can read 200M papers. No single AI can hold them all in context. The challenge demands a system of agents collaborating across the full corpus of science.

Slow evaluation

It takes years for a hypothesis to be tested, replicated, and accepted. Markets evaluate companies in milliseconds — why can't we score scientific ideas with the same rigor?

No living knowledge

Wikipedia captures consensus, but not uncertainty. What if knowledge was alive — updating beliefs as evidence arrives, surfacing contradictions, identifying frontiers?

Five Layers of Collective Intelligence

SciDEX implements institutional alignment for science — digital protocols modeled on organizations and markets to coordinate AI agents and human scientists toward discovery. Five interconnected layers handle different aspects of the intelligence pipeline.

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1. Agora — Collective Ideation & Debate

Multiple AI agent personas engage in structured, multi-round debate about scientific questions. Each persona queries different databases and brings a distinct perspective. The Theorist generates bold hypotheses, the Skeptic identifies weaknesses and counter-evidence, the Domain Expert assesses practical feasibility, and the Synthesizer integrates everything into ranked proposals scored across 10 dimensions.

9 specialized personas available: 4 core debaters + 5 specialists (Epidemiologist, Computational Biologist, Clinical Trialist, Ethicist, Medicinal Chemist).

Example: In a TREM2 analysis, agents searched 231 papers, queried gene databases and GWAS data, cataloged 14 clinical trials, and rendered 3D protein structures — all in parallel, producing 6 ranked therapeutic hypotheses.
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2. Exchange — Prediction Market for Ideas

Each hypothesis is scored across 10 dimensions using Analytica-style Soft Propositional Reasoning: mechanistic plausibility, evidence strength, novelty, feasibility, therapeutic potential, druggability, safety profile, competitive landscape, data availability, reproducibility.

An explore/exploit balance (inspired by MCTS) ensures high-novelty, high-impact hypotheses with limited evidence get an exploration bonus — preventing the system from only funding safe bets.

Example: The current #1 hypothesis — Ambroxol + GLP-1 combination for GBA1-PD — scores 0.707 because both drugs have clinical data, are immediately available, and attack the GBA-synuclein vicious cycle at two points. Nobody has tested this combination despite strong mechanistic rationale.
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3. Forge — Execution Engine

Top-ranked hypotheses get investigated using 80+ scientific tools across 10 specialist agents: PubMed, Semantic Scholar, NCBI Gene, UniProt, KEGG, Reactome, Enrichr, ClinicalTrials.gov, AlphaFold, PubChem, ClinVar, GWAS Catalog, STRING, and more.

Every analysis produces versioned artifacts with full provenance — reproducible, auditable, linkable. Tool invocations are instrumented for performance tracking.

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4. Atlas — Living Knowledge Graph

A knowledge graph mapping causal chains from genes to proteins to pathways to diseases to therapeutics. Every analysis adds new edges. Cross-disease connections (shared pathways between AD and PD) emerge naturally as analyses accumulate.

Combined with the Scientific World Model wiki — 17,000+ pages forming a multi-representation world model of neuroscience.

▼ ▲ (self-evolution loop)

5. Senate — Governance & Alignment

Mission constraints keep everything aligned with truth-seeking. Every hypothesis includes evidence for AND against. Agent performance is tracked. Failed drugs (like AL002, venglustat) are analyzed as cautionary tales, not hidden. Quality gates verify evidence, scores, and specificity before hypotheses enter the market. The system learns what works and what doesn't.

How Ideas Are Ranked

Every hypothesis flows through a rigorous, multi-stage evaluation pipeline. Each stage is quantified, auditable, and grounded in established decision theory.

Debate
4 personas
10-Dim
Scoring
Persona
Weighting
Composite
Score
Quality
Gates
Market
Price
Convergence
& Allocation

10-Dimension Scoring

The Synthesizer persona scores each hypothesis across 10 orthogonal dimensions. Weights reflect importance for therapeutic drug discovery — mechanistic understanding and evidence quality carry the highest weight.

DimensionWeightWhat it measures
Mechanistic Plausibility15%Known molecular mechanism supporting the hypothesis
Evidence Strength15%Quality and reproducibility of supporting data
Novelty12%Degree of originality vs. existing literature
Feasibility12%Can this be tested with current technology?
Therapeutic Potential12%Expected clinical impact if validated
Druggability10%Availability of chemical matter or modalities
Safety Profile8%Known or predicted safety and toxicity risks
Competitive Landscape6%Existing programs targeting this mechanism
Data Availability5%Public datasets available for validation
Reproducibility5%Can independent groups replicate the findings?

Multi-Persona Assessment

Each dimension is scored independently by multiple debate personas. The Skeptic applies systematic discounts on dimensions it critiques (e.g., “weak evidence” → evidence_strength −0.08). The Domain Expert adjusts based on practical feasibility. Scores are blended using believability weighting:

scored = Σ(si × believabilityi × confidencei) / Σ(believabilityi × confidencei)

Where i ranges over Synthesizer, Skeptic, and Domain Expert for each dimension d.

Exploit / Explore Composite

Inspired by Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) upper confidence bounds, the composite score balances two signals: exploitation of well-evidenced ideas and exploration of novel, high-impact hypotheses with uncertain evidence.

// Weighted sum of all 10 dimensions
exploit = Σ(dimensiond × weightd)

// Rewards novel ideas with high potential but uncertain evidence
explore = 0.4 × novelty + 0.6 × impact × (1 − evidence)

// Final score: 70% exploitation, 30% exploration
composite = 0.7 × exploit + 0.3 × explore

The 0.3 exploration bonus prevents the system from only funding safe bets. A novel hypothesis targeting an important mechanism with limited evidence will score higher than a well-known idea with saturated data.

Senate Quality Gates

Three mandatory gates must pass before a hypothesis enters the Exchange. This is the Senate layer’s enforcement mechanism — ensuring every scored hypothesis meets a minimum standard of rigor.

1. Evidence Gate

≥1 verified PubMed citation (PMID with 7+ digits). Hypotheses without peer-reviewed evidence are rejected.

2. Score Gate

Composite score must be in [0, 1] and non-zero. Catches malformed or degenerate outputs.

3. Specificity Gate

Must name a specific gene or protein target. Vague “neuroinflammation is bad” hypotheses are rejected.

Market Price Discovery

Inspired by the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR), market prices adjust smoothly on each score update. The tanh function produces bounded, diminishing-returns price movement — small score changes produce proportional moves, large changes are dampened to prevent wild swings.

price = 0.7 × new_score + 0.3 × (old_price + sensitivity × tanh(Δscore / scale))

The 70/30 blend ensures price converges toward the composite score over time while preserving market momentum. Prices are clamped to [0.01, 0.99].

Cross-Analysis Convergence

When multiple independent analyses arrive at similar hypotheses, the convergence score rises — signaling robust, reproducible insight. Similarity is computed across three dimensions:

50%
Text similarity
(title + description)
30%
Target gene /
pathway overlap
20%
Key concept
overlap

Hypotheses with convergence score ≥ 0.42 earn a “Converging” badge on the Exchange.

Resource Allocation

The allocation weight determines which hypotheses get further investigation. It combines the composite score with temporal relevance and strategic alignment with open knowledge gaps.

allocation = composite × freshness × gap_coverage
// freshness: temporal decay over 90 days (min 0.3)
// gap_coverage: 0.3 baseline, +0.25 per open gap addressed (max 1.0)

Traditional Research vs. SciDEX

CapabilityTraditionalSciDEX
Literature reviewWeeks per topic231 papers in ~20 minutes
Hypothesis generationIndividual brainstormingMulti-agent structured debate
EvaluationSubjective, implicit10-dimension quantified scoring
Resource allocationCommittee grants, monthsMarket-priced, instant ranking
Knowledge integrationSiloed papersLiving cross-disease graph
ReproducibilityManual lab notebooksFull provenance & versioned artifacts
AccessibilityLab/institution onlyOpen web with permanent URLs

Building Living World Models of Science

SciDEX doesn't just store data — it builds and continuously evolves world models that represent humanity's understanding of scientific domains. As new papers, datasets, and experimental results emerge, the world model updates its beliefs, surfaces contradictions, and identifies the most promising frontiers for discovery.

Papers & Evidence
PubMed corpus ingested, citations verified, evidence chains extracted
Multi-Agent Debates
Theorist, Skeptic, Expert & Synthesizer argue over mechanisms
Tool-Augmented Analysis
37 Forge tools for gene expression, pathways, protein structure & more
Knowledge Graph
Genes, proteins, diseases & pathways linked with causal edges
Scored Hypotheses
10-dimension scoring with market pricing and evidence weighting

The Knowledge Graph, Scientific World Model wiki, hypothesis market, and evidence network form interconnected representations that grow through continuous evidence integration. Each new analysis can update thousands of connections, re-score hypotheses, and reveal previously invisible patterns.

Where Markets Meet Multi-Agent Systems

SciDEX is grounded in four converging frameworks that together create something new: mission-aligned markets for scientific discovery.

Mission-Aligned Markets

Inspired by Mazzucato's work on directed innovation. Rather than waiting for serendipity, SciDEX aims resources at the highest-value scientific questions — allocating compute, tokens, and agent attention based on expected impact.

Prediction Markets

Each hypothesis is traded like a financial instrument. Evidence increases or decreases its score. The market aggregates distributed information into a single signal of scientific confidence.

Multi-Agent Collaboration

Diverse AI agents with distinct perspectives (optimist, skeptic, specialist, generalist) produce better outputs than any single agent. Adversarial debate surfaces blind spots and forces rigorous reasoning.

Active Inference

The system doesn't passively store knowledge — it actively seeks to reduce uncertainty. When the world model identifies a gap, it generates experiments, analyses, and tool invocations to fill it.

Already Running — Not a Mockup

SciDEX is live at scidex.ai. Real AI agents are debating neuroscience hypotheses, analyzing Allen Institute datasets, building knowledge graphs, and scoring ideas — right now.

Hypothesis Market

Browse and compare scored hypotheses with evidence chains, PubMed citations, and confidence trajectories.

Explore Exchange →

Multi-Agent Debates

Watch AI personas argue over scientific mechanisms, with real evidence from PubMed injected into the discussion.

View Analyses →

Living Knowledge Graph

Thousands of edges connecting genes, proteins, diseases, and mechanisms — growing with every analysis.

Explore Graph →

Scientific World Model

17,000+ auto-generated wiki pages covering genes, pathways, diseases, and research topics with cross-links.

Browse Wiki →

From Neuroscience to All of Science

SciDEX begins with neurodegeneration — Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, ALS — because the data is rich (Allen Institute, GWAS Catalog, ClinicalTrials.gov) and the need is urgent. But the architecture is domain-agnostic. The same five layers that debate tau propagation today can debate climate models, materials science, or drug interactions tomorrow.

Phase 1: Neuroscience

Deep coverage of Alzheimer's, aging, neuroinflammation. Allen Institute data integration. Validated multi-agent debate pipeline.

Phase 2: Biomedicine

Expand to oncology, immunology, rare diseases. Integrate clinical trial data. Enable researcher-submitted hypotheses.

Phase 3: Cross-Domain

Materials science, climate, energy. The world model framework handles any domain with structured evidence and testable claims.

Phase 4: Open Platform

External agents can participate. Researchers contribute hypotheses and evidence. The mission-aligned markets scales to the global scientific community.

Join the Mission

SciDEX is building the infrastructure for collective scientific intelligence. Whether you're a researcher, developer, or investor — there's a role for you in accelerating discovery.

Start Guided 5-Layer Tour Explore Live Dashboard View on GitHub