Context
As of 2026-04-29, SciDEX has 139 prediction markets. In the last 24h:
- 120 new markets were created (from the experiment-to-prediction-market bridge)
- 23 markets were resolved
The experiment-to-prediction-market bridge (task 7a2a51d6, merged 2026-04-28)
works — but creating 120 markets in 24h without quality gates produces noise.
Markets should represent genuine scientific uncertainty with tradeable signal.
At that creation rate, most markets likely have:
- Boilerplate yes/no probabilities (0.5/0.5)
- No distinguishing resolution criteria
- Low liquidity (no meaningful trading)
- Duplicate or near-identical propositions
The platform's prediction-market credibility depends on market quality, not
volume. A market that resolves to 50/50 with no trades provides zero signal.
Goal
Audit all 120 newly-created markets for quality (resolution criteria,
probability calibration, uniqueness)
Identify and archive the lowest-quality markets
Define a quality gate standard for future market creation
Implement the quality gate in the experiment bridge to enforce it
Ensure the 23 resolved markets resolved correctly with evidenceWhat success looks like
☐ All 120 new markets audited with quality scores
☐ Bottom 30% (≤ 30-40 markets) archived with rationale
☐ Quality gate implemented: market creation requires resolution_criteria,
probability justification, and link to hypothesis or experiment
☐ POST /api/markets enforces quality gate before insert
☐ 23 resolved markets verified: resolution evidence documented
What NOT to do
- Do NOT delete markets — archive them (status='archived' or similar)
- Do NOT lower all probabilities toward 50/50 — some genuine asymmetry
is valid (e.g., "APOE4 increases AD risk" should be 90/10 already)
- Do NOT break the existing experiment bridge — patch it, don't rewrite it
Agent guidance
Read prediction_markets schema: hypothesis_id, yes_prob, no_prob,
liquidity, resolution_date, resolved_at, resolution, experiment_id
Quality criteria: (1) resolution_date set, (2) liquidity > 0,
(3) resolution criteria in title or linked hypothesis description,
(4) yes_prob not exactly 0.5 (uninformative priors)
Use LLM to assess market proposition quality from title + hypothesis link
Gate implementation: add validation in the market creation route in api.pySpec notes
- Created by quest task generator Cycle 4 (2026-04-29T03:05Z)
- Priority 91: protects Exchange value proposition (criterion #2) and
implements feedback loop (criterion #4) for market signal quality
- One-shot: quality gate + audit is bounded work; the gate prevents future
burst creation
Work Log
Created 2026-04-29
Spec created by ambitious quest task generator (Cycle 4). Discovery: 120
markets created in 24h from experiment bridge — rapid creation without quality
gates is noise amplification. Platform credibility requires market signal
integrity. This task enforces it.