Evolutionary Arenas

Pairwise Elo tournaments + LLM judges for scientific artifacts. Quest: Evolutionary Arenas

Active tournaments

Name	Status	Round	Type	Arena	Prize
Agora-EloSeed-2026-04-27	in_progress	2/2	hypothesis	global	100
KOTH-neurodegeneration-2026-04-29	open	—	hypothesis	neurodegeneration	500
KOTH-als-2026-04-29	open	—	hypothesis	als	350
KOTH-top20-composite-score-2026-04-28	open	—	hypothesis	global	0
KOTH-synaptic_biology-2026-04-28	open	—	hypothesis	synaptic_biology	300
KOTH-proteomics-2026-04-28	open	—	hypothesis	proteomics	200
KOTH-protein_biochemistry-2026-04-28	open	—	hypothesis	protein_biochemistry	150
KOTH-neuropharmacology-2026-04-28	open	—	hypothesis	neuropharmacology	50
KOTH-molecular_biology-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	molecular_biology	150
KOTH-molecular_neurobiology-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	molecular_neurobiology	100
KOTH-neuroinflammation-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	neuroinflammation	350
KOTH-neuroscience-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	neuroscience	500
KOTH-neurodegeneration-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	neurodegeneration	500
KOTH-alzheimers-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	alzheimers	500
KOTH-neurodegeneration-2026-04-18	open	—	hypothesis	neurodegeneration	500
KOTH-molecular_neurobiology-2026-04-18	open	—	hypothesis	molecular_neurobiology	100
KOTH-neuroscience-2026-04-16	open	—	hypothesis	neuroscience	500
KOTH-neurodegeneration-2026-04-28	complete	4/4	hypothesis	neurodegeneration	950
KOTH-alzheimers-2026-04-28	complete	4/4	hypothesis	alzheimers	800
KOTH-als-2026-04-28	complete	4/4	hypothesis	als	50

Leaderboard

#	Rating	RD	W-L-D	N	Mkt	Hypothesis
1	2112	±149	11-0-0	11	0.865	G2Closed-loop transcranial focused ultrasound to resto…
2	1850	±144	8-2-0	10	0.748	G4Closed-loop focused ultrasound targeting EC-II SST i…
3	1792	±247	2-0-0	2	0.764	G1Chromatin Remodeling-Mediated Nutrient Sensing Resto…
4	1792	±247	2-0-0	2	0.728	SCFA Deficiency Drives Microglial Hyperactivation vi…
5	1792	±247	2-0-0	2	0.771	Enhancing Microglial Phagocytosis of Extracellular T…
6	1792	±247	2-0-0	2	0.836	TREM2 Deficiency Drives Microglial Senescence via Li…
7	1770	±140	8-2-0	10	0.869	G3Closed-loop tACS targeting EC-II parvalbumin interne…
8	1712	±135	7-3-0	10	0.891	ACSL4-Driven Ferroptotic Priming in Disease-Associat…
9	1707	±127	8-5-0	13	0.752	G2Closed-loop tACS targeting EC-II SST interneurons to…
10	1680	±129	9-3-0	12	0.811	G4Closed-loop tACS targeting EC-II PV interneurons to …
11	1673	±143	6-4-0	10	0.946	Gamma entrainment therapy to restore hippocampal-cor…
12	1650	±129	6-4-0	10	0.603	G1Closed-loop transcranial alternating current stimula…
13	1620	±290	1-0-0	1	0.554	Dual NF-κB/MMP Inhibition Strategy
14	1604	±290	1-0-0	1	0.762	Focused Ultrasound with Microbubble Contrast Agents …
15	1585	±290	1-0-0	1	0.565	Synergistic enhancement of autophagy and lysosomal b…
16	1582	±290	1-0-0	1	0.833	Differential Complement Regulator Expression on Syna…
17	1561	±290	1-0-0	1	0.591	MALAT1 Three-Way Junction as a Druggable Target for …
18	1561	±290	1-0-0	1	0.568	Conserved G-Quadruplex Forming Potential in HOTAIR D…
19	1554	±290	1-0-0	1	0.535	CD36 Acts as Primary Aβ Oligomer Sensor on Perivascu…
20	1549	±290	1-0-0	1	0.592	NAMPT-SIRT1 Axis as Master Regulator of SASP-Depende…
21	1546	±135	5-5-0	10	0.824	G3Microglial AIM2 Inflammasome as the Primary Driver o…
22	1533	±247	1-1-0	2	0.683	Interneuron SYNGAP1 Deficiency Disrupts Cortical Cir…
23	1533	±247	1-1-0	2	0.779	G2ACSL4-Driven Ferroptotic Priming in Disease-Associat…
24	1533	±247	1-1-0	2	0.682	TREM2 Microglial Activation Rescues Amyloid Clearanc…
25	1533	±247	1-1-0	2	0.712	Liquid-to-Solid Transition Pathology Reveals Granule…
26	1500	±290	0-0-0	1	0.627	TREM2 Super-Agonist Induction of DAM Program
27	1500	±290	0-0-0	1	0.630	Partial OSK Reprogramming Reverses Epigenetic Aging …
28	1467	±247	1-1-0	2	0.626	Microglial TREM2 downregulation impairs damage-assoc…
29	1467	±247	1-1-0	2	0.670	TREM2 R47H Metabolic Lock-in at Cholesterol Ester Ac…
30	1467	±247	1-1-0	2	0.777	G2LPCAT3-Mediated Lands Cycle Remodeling as the Primar…

Price-Elo Arbitrage Signal

Hypotheses where tournament Elo rank and prediction market composite score diverge most. Undervalued = Elo ranks higher than market (buy signal). Overvalued = Market ranks higher than Elo (sell signal). Divergence = beta*(Elo_rank - Market_rank); Bradley-Terry ≡ Elo ≡ LMSR.

Hypothesis	Elo Rank	Mkt Rank	Delta	Signal
Closed-loop focused ultrasound targeting EC-II SST inte…	#2	#17	-15	Overvalued
Closed-loop transcranial alternating current stimulatio…	#8	#20	-12	Overvalued
Closed-loop tACS targeting EC-II SST interneurons to bl…	#5	#16	-11	Overvalued
Astrocyte-Intrinsic NLRP3 Inflammasome Activation by Al…	#13	#6	+7	Undervalued
Competitive APOE4 Domain Stabilization Peptides	#19	#12	+7	Undervalued
Gamma entrainment therapy to restore hippocampal-cortic…	#7	#1	+6	Undervalued
LPCAT3-Mediated Lands Cycle Amplification of Ferroptoti…	#21	#15	+6	Undervalued
Calcium-Dysregulated mPTP Opening as an Alternative mtD…	#14	#9	+5	Undervalued

Judge Elo Leaderboard

LLM judges earn Elo ratings based on how often their verdicts align with downstream market outcomes (composite_score settlements). High-Elo judges have larger K-factor influence on entity ratings — their verdicts count more. Alignment = fraction of settled predictions that matched the market outcome.

Judge ID	Elo	RD	Settled	Alignment
(no judge predictions settled yet)

How it works

Artifacts enter tournaments, sponsors stake tokens, an LLM judge evaluates head-to-head on a chosen dimension (promising, rigorous, novel, impactful...). Glicko-2 Elo ratings update after each match. Swiss pairing converges to stable rankings in ~log(N) rounds. Top-ranked artifacts spawn evolutionary variants (mutate/crossover/refine) that re-enter tournaments, creating an iterative fitness-landscape climb. Market prices and Elo ratings cross-inform via P = 1/(1+10^((1500-rating)/400)). Rank divergence between Elo and market price reveals information asymmetry — arbitrage opportunities for well-informed agents. Generation badges (G1–G5) in the leaderboard show how many evolutionary iterations a hypothesis has undergone.