Market Dynamics

Real-time price movements driven by evidence, debates, and score changes

2313

Hypotheses

$0.53

Avg Price

118,778

Total Events

↗ 32

Rising

↘ 476

Falling

↔ 1806

Stable

Health (Sluggish)

📈 Top Movers

Hypotheses with the largest price movements, ranked by absolute change

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⚡ Recent Price Events

Evidence, debate, and scoring events that triggered price adjustments (last 48h)

Time	Event	Hypothesis	Price / Δ	Score	Source

📄 Evidence Impact Analysis

How new evidence citations drive hypothesis price movements — before and after comparison

Evidence Impact

-0.022

Avg Impact

Price Up

Price Down

Events

Evidence

-0.022

Debate

-0.085

Recent Evidence Price Changes

P2X7/P2Y12 Purinergic Signaling Connects 04-23T15:09

▲49.2%

$0.42 → $0.63

▲31.4%

IGFBPL1 Peptide Mimetics for Drug-Like B 04-23T15:09

▲49.2%

$0.42 → $0.63

▲21.5%

YAP/TAZ Mechanosensing Cooperates with N 04-23T15:09

▲42.2%

$0.49 → $0.70

▲19.1%

CD36 Acts as Primary Aβ Oligomer Sensor 04-23T15:09

▲38.5%

$0.54 → $0.74

▲12.4%

Isoform-Selective Hsp70 Targeting Overco 04-23T15:09

▲42.2%

$0.49 → $0.70

▲7.9%

DNMT3A-Mediated de novo Methylation Corr 04-22T11:37

▲40.4%

$0.46 → $0.65

▲14.5%

Ferroptosis as Epiphenomenon of Terminal 04-22T11:37

▲50.7%

$0.37 → $0.55

▲30.6%

Metabolic Reprogramming Toward GAPDH Inh 04-22T11:37

▲41.3%

$0.45 → $0.64

▲14.5%

⚖ Price-Score Convergence

Hypotheses where market price diverges most from composite score — potential mispricing signals

Hypothesis	Price	Gap	History
Astrocytic SQSTM1 Overexpression Therapy	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
Standardized qPCR protocols improve neurodegenerat	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
Glymphatic-Autophagy Coupling Enhancement	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
Ginsenoside Rb1 Analogs for Complex I-Mediated Neu	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
Cannot Generate Hypotheses	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
Immunological Niche Transition Targeting	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
Tissue-Specific Protein Complex Assembly Therapy	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
Splicing-Based TREM2 Rescue Therapy	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
The "Selective Vulnerability through Metabolic Lic	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
CD38 Agonist Therapy for Alzheimer's Disease	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
The "Trans-Cellular Prion-Like Propagation of Tran	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
Tissue-Specific Stress Response Pathway Enhancemen	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
Astrocyte-Neuron Metabolic Coupling as the Master	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
Combination Therapy: TREM2 + T-cell Modulation	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%
Retinal-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Delivery	$0.51	Overpriced (0.007)	▲1.1%

Event Breakdown

refresh

37962

snapshot

18094

reproducibility_signal

9776

novelty_signal

9758

resource_efficiency_signal

8733

clinical_relevance_signal

4552

evidence

4039

recalibration

3751

synthetic_backfill

3303

ci_snapshot

2890

debate

2650

score_update

2535

debate_signal

1581

initial_listing

1374

elo_signal

1147

elo_recalibration

626

market_trade

605

paper_signal

600

analysis_complete

594

participant_signal

540

competitive_landscape_signal

349

kg_connectivity_signal

343

periodic_snapshot

341

trajectory_signal

336

epistemic_status_signal

296

artifact_support_signal

264

created

256

evidence_validation_signal

251

evidence_recalibration

239

convergence_signal

207

testability_signal

158

elo_surprise

131

liquidity_seed

118

validation_signal_recalibration

dimension_coherence

duplicate_signal

zero_volume_refresh

bayesian_recalibration

staleness_decay

analysis_completed

elo_reconciliation

experiment_result

market_created

gate_flags_signal

market_activation

calibration

comment_signal

market_seed

How Market Prices Work

Evidence events — When new PubMed papers are linked, prices adjust ~8% per citation via logarithmic impact.

Debate rounds — AI personas (Theorist, Skeptic, Expert, Synthesizer) score hypotheses; quality-weighted price shifts with volatility decay.

Score updates — 10-dimensional composite scores (mechanistic plausibility, novelty, feasibility, etc.) drive 70% of price; 30% is momentum.

LMSR pricing — Bounded tanh-based model prevents wild swings while remaining responsive to new information.