Market Dynamics
Real-time price movements driven by evidence, debates, and score changes
526
Hypotheses
$0.50
Avg Price
44,233
Total Events
↗ 6
Rising
↘ 15
Falling
↔ 427
Stable
45
Health (Moderate)
📈 Aggregate Market (14 days)
🚀 24h Price Velocity
Hypotheses moving fastest in the last 24 hours — cents per hour of price change
▲ +0.025
25.2¢/hr
3 events
$0.55 → $0.58
▲4.6%
▲ +0.022
22.3¢/hr
3 events
$0.59 → $0.61
▲3.8%
▲ +0.014
14.1¢/hr
3 events
$0.56 → $0.57
▲2.5%
▲ +0.008
8.1¢/hr
3 events
$0.45 → $0.46
▲1.8%
▲ +0.006
6.1¢/hr
3 events
$0.61 → $0.62
▲1.0%
▼ -0.005
4.8¢/hr
3 events
$0.57 → $0.57
▼0.8%
▲ +0.005
4.8¢/hr
3 events
$0.58 → $0.58
▲0.8%
▼ -0.040
3.9¢/hr
2 events
$0.54 → $0.50
▼16.5%
📈 Top Movers
Hypotheses with the largest price movements, ranked by absolute change
▲ 164.4%
$0.80
Gap: 0.11
▲164.4%
148 events · Score: 0.692
▲ 114.6%
$0.66
Gap: 0.04
▲114.6%
158 events · Score: 0.615
▲ 103.1%
$0.62
Gap: 0.01
▲118.8%
203 events · Score: 0.662
▲ 56.4%
$0.84
Gap: 0.01
▲56.4%
112 events · Score: 0.845
▲ 91.9%
$0.59
Gap: 0.03
▲91.9%
175 events · Score: 0.617
▲ 51.6%
$0.71
Gap: 0.18
▲51.6%
71 events · Score: 0.533
▲ 47.9%
$0.74
Gap: 0.12
▲59.5%
179 events · Score: 0.681
▼ 32.7%
$0.47
Gap: 0.01
▼32.7%
166 events · Score: 0.462
▲ 74.3%
$0.53
Gap: 0.03
▲74.3%
133 events · Score: 0.559
▼ 32.2%
$0.46
Gap: 0.06
▼32.2%
164 events · Score: 0.517
▲ 71.1%
$0.52
Gap: 0.01
▲71.1%
96 events · Score: 0.512
▼ 27.8%
$0.54
Gap: 0.02
▼27.8%
156 events · Score: 0.563
⚡ Recent Price Events
Evidence, debate, and scoring events that triggered price adjustments (last 48h)
| Time | Event | Hypothesis | Price / Δ | Score | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-16T03:56 | 📄 New Evidence | GPC4/HSPGs Collaborate with ApoE Isoforms to Dicta | $0.58▼-0.056 | 0.583 | evidence_update |
| 04-16T03:56 | 📄 New Evidence | GPC4/HSPGs Collaborate with ApoE Isoforms to Dicta | $0.64▲+0.061 | 0.583 | evidence_update |
| 04-16T03:56 | ✨ Listed | GPC4/HSPGs Collaborate with ApoE Isoforms to Dicta | $0.58 | 0.583 | post_process |
| 04-15T22:55 | 📄 New Evidence | TREM2 R47H Metabolic Lock-in at Cholesterol Ester | $0.57▼-0.048 | 0.563 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T22:55 | 📄 New Evidence | TREM2 R47H Metabolic Lock-in at Cholesterol Ester | $0.62▲+0.062 | 0.563 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T22:55 | ✨ Listed | TREM2 R47H Metabolic Lock-in at Cholesterol Ester | $0.56 | 0.563 | post_process |
| 04-15T20:24 | 📄 New Evidence | Integrated Biomarker Panel for Therapeutic Window | $0.61▼-0.056 | 0.615 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T20:24 | 📄 New Evidence | Integrated Biomarker Panel for Therapeutic Window | $0.67▲+0.056 | 0.615 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T20:24 | ✨ Listed | Integrated Biomarker Panel for Therapeutic Window | $0.61 | 0.615 | post_process |
| 04-15T19:34 | 📄 New Evidence | DLK MAPK Pathway Inhibition to Block Tau-Induced N | $0.62▼-0.054 | 0.609 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T19:34 | 📄 New Evidence | DLK MAPK Pathway Inhibition to Block Tau-Induced N | $0.67▲+0.060 | 0.609 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T19:34 | ✨ Listed | DLK MAPK Pathway Inhibition to Block Tau-Induced N | $0.61 | 0.609 | post_process |
| 04-15T19:08 | 📄 New Evidence | H7: Enteric Nervous System Alpha-Synuclein Propaga | $0.61▼-0.045 | 0.595 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T19:08 | 📄 New Evidence | H7: Enteric Nervous System Alpha-Synuclein Propaga | $0.66▲+0.067 | 0.595 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T19:08 | ✨ Listed | H7: Enteric Nervous System Alpha-Synuclein Propaga | $0.59 | 0.595 | post_process |
| 04-15T17:28 | 📄 New Evidence | ER Stress Reduction as Adjunctive Therapy to Suppo | $0.57▼-0.061 | 0.566 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T17:28 | 📄 New Evidence | ER Stress Reduction as Adjunctive Therapy to Suppo | $0.63▲+0.056 | 0.566 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T17:28 | ✨ Listed | ER Stress Reduction as Adjunctive Therapy to Suppo | $0.57 | 0.566 | post_process |
| 04-15T13:45 | 📄 New Evidence | PGC1α Activation in PV+ Interneurons Bypasses Mito | $0.46▼-0.051 | 0.455 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T13:45 | 📄 New Evidence | PGC1α Activation in PV+ Interneurons Bypasses Mito | $0.51▲+0.059 | 0.455 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T13:45 | ✨ Listed | PGC1α Activation in PV+ Interneurons Bypasses Mito | $0.45 | 0.455 | post_process |
| 04-15T11:25 | 📄 New Evidence | Timed Senolytic Therapy Eliminates p16^Ink4a/p21^C | $0.59▼-0.058 | 0.587 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T11:25 | 📄 New Evidence | Timed Senolytic Therapy Eliminates p16^Ink4a/p21^C | $0.65▲+0.058 | 0.587 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T11:25 | ✨ Listed | Timed Senolytic Therapy Eliminates p16^Ink4a/p21^C | $0.59 | 0.587 | post_process |
| 04-15T05:50 | 📄 New Evidence | SYK-Independent TREM2 Pathways Remain Functional i | $0.58▼-0.040 | 0.555 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T05:50 | 📄 New Evidence | SYK-Independent TREM2 Pathways Remain Functional i | $0.62▲+0.065 | 0.555 | evidence_update |
| 04-15T05:50 | ✨ Listed | SYK-Independent TREM2 Pathways Remain Functional i | $0.55 | 0.555 | post_process |
| 04-14T20:07 | 📄 New Evidence | M1 Muscarinic Receptor Agonism as Pharmacological | $0.60▼-0.054 | 0.589 | evidence_update |
| 04-14T20:07 | 📄 New Evidence | M1 Muscarinic Receptor Agonism as Pharmacological | $0.65▲+0.060 | 0.589 | evidence_update |
| 04-14T20:07 | ✨ Listed | M1 Muscarinic Receptor Agonism as Pharmacological | $0.59 | 0.589 | post_process |
| 04-14T14:57 | 📄 New Evidence | C3aR Blockade Disrupts the Microglial-Astrocyte Fe | $0.60▼-0.057 | 0.596 | evidence_update |
| 04-14T14:57 | 📄 New Evidence | C3aR Blockade Disrupts the Microglial-Astrocyte Fe | $0.66▲+0.061 | 0.596 | evidence_update |
| 04-14T14:57 | ✨ Listed | C3aR Blockade Disrupts the Microglial-Astrocyte Fe | $0.60 | 0.596 | post_process |
| 04-14T14:03 | 📄 New Evidence | STMN2 Restoration as a Prerequisite for Axon Growt | $0.67▼-0.054 | 0.658 | evidence_update |
| 04-14T14:03 | 📄 New Evidence | STMN2 Restoration as a Prerequisite for Axon Growt | $0.72▲+0.060 | 0.658 | evidence_update |
| 04-14T14:03 | ✨ Listed | STMN2 Restoration as a Prerequisite for Axon Growt | $0.66 | 0.658 | post_process |
| 04-14T11:28 | 📄 New Evidence | CSF Biomarker-Guided ABCA7 Therapeutic Dosing | $0.65▼-0.038 | 0.619 | evidence_update |
| 04-14T11:28 | 📄 New Evidence | CSF Biomarker-Guided ABCA7 Therapeutic Dosing | $0.69▲+0.068 | 0.619 | evidence_update |
| 04-14T11:28 | ✨ Listed | CSF Biomarker-Guided ABCA7 Therapeutic Dosing | $0.62 | 0.619 | post_process |
| 04-14T10:34 | 📄 New Evidence | GAS6/TAM Axis Activation Stabilizes Blood-Brain Ba | $0.51▼-0.054 | 0.498 | evidence_update |
| 04-14T10:34 | 📄 New Evidence | GAS6/TAM Axis Activation Stabilizes Blood-Brain Ba | $0.56▲+0.060 | 0.498 | evidence_update |
| 04-14T10:34 | ✨ Listed | GAS6/TAM Axis Activation Stabilizes Blood-Brain Ba | $0.50 | 0.498 | post_process |
📄 Evidence Impact Analysis
How new evidence citations drive hypothesis price movements — before and after comparison
Evidence Impact
+0.003
Avg Impact
20
Price Up
20
Price Down
40
Events
Evidence
+0.003
Debate
+0.017
Recent Evidence Price Changes
04-16T03:56
▼8.7%
$0.64 → $0.58
▲0.8%
04-16T03:56
▲10.5%
$0.58 → $0.64
▲0.8%
04-15T22:55
▼7.7%
$0.62 → $0.57
▲2.5%
04-15T22:55
▲11.1%
$0.56 → $0.62
▲2.5%
04-15T20:24
▼8.4%
$0.67 → $0.61
04-15T20:24
▲9.2%
$0.61 → $0.67
04-15T19:34
▼8.0%
$0.67 → $0.62
▲1.0%
04-15T19:34
▲9.8%
$0.61 → $0.67
▲1.0%
⚖ Price-Score Convergence
Hypotheses where market price diverges most from composite score — potential mispricing signals
| Hypothesis | Score | Price | Gap | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
| [Archived Hypothesis] | 0.000 | $0.50 | Underpriced (0.000) | - |
Event Breakdown
refresh
snapshot
recalibration
ci_snapshot
evidence
elo_signal
paper_signal
score_update
debate
reproducibility_signal
competitive_landscape_signal
kg_connectivity_signal
periodic_snapshot
trajectory_signal
debate_signal
epistemic_status_signal
artifact_support_signal
evidence_validation_signal
created
convergence_signal
clinical_relevance_signal
participant_signal
testability_signal
elo_surprise
dimension_coherence
duplicate_signal
staleness_decay
gate_flags_signal
market_seed
experiment_result
How Market Prices Work
Evidence events — When new PubMed papers are linked, prices adjust ~8% per citation via logarithmic impact.
Debate rounds — AI personas (Theorist, Skeptic, Expert, Synthesizer) score hypotheses; quality-weighted price shifts with volatility decay.
Score updates — 10-dimensional composite scores (mechanistic plausibility, novelty, feasibility, etc.) drive 70% of price; 30% is momentum.
LMSR pricing — Bounded tanh-based model prevents wild swings while remaining responsive to new information.