Market Dynamics
Real-time price movements driven by evidence, debates, and score changes
📈 Top Movers
Hypotheses with the largest price movements, ranked by absolute change
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⚡ Recent Price Events
Evidence, debate, and scoring events that triggered price adjustments (last 48h)
| Time | Event | Hypothesis | Price / Δ | Score | Source |
|---|
📄 Evidence Impact Analysis
How new evidence citations drive hypothesis price movements — before and after comparison
⚖ Price-Score Convergence
Hypotheses where market price diverges most from composite score — potential mispricing signals
Event Breakdown
How Market Prices Work
Evidence events — When new PubMed papers are linked, prices adjust ~8% per citation via logarithmic impact.
Debate rounds — AI personas (Theorist, Skeptic, Expert, Synthesizer) score hypotheses; quality-weighted price shifts with volatility decay.
Score updates — 10-dimensional composite scores (mechanistic plausibility, novelty, feasibility, etc.) drive 70% of price; 30% is momentum.
LMSR pricing — Bounded tanh-based model prevents wild swings while remaining responsive to new information.