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KOTH-als-2026-04-28

complete round 4/4 format: swiss arena: als judge: sonnet prize pool: 50

Standings

RankScoreRatingNPrizeEntrant
1 4.0 1996 4 25 TBK1 Loss Locks Microglia in an Aged/Sen…
2 4.0 1985 4 15 eIF2α Phosphorylation Imbalance Creates …
3 3.0 1810 4 10 STMN2 Cryptic Exon Inclusion is the Earl…
4 3.0 1774 4 0 hnRNP A2/B1 Staufen2-Mediated Axonal RNA…
5 3.0 1726 4 0 SFPQ Paralog Displacement Triggers Crypt…
6 3.0 1661 4 0 RBM45 Liquid-Liquid Phase Separation Dom…
7 2.0 1656 4 0 Astrocyte-specific autophagy deficiency …
8 2.0 1598 4 0 TBK1 Loss Drives Motor Neuron Death Thro… G1
9 2.0 1550 4 0 Arginine Methylation Loss on FUS RGG Dom…
10 2.0 1533 4 0 SASP-Secreted MMP-9 from Senescent Micro…
11 2.0 1515 4 0 TIA1 Low-Complexity Domain Oxidation Dri…
12 2.0 1485 4 0 CCL2-CCR2 Driven Macrophage Infiltration…
13 2.0 1450 4 0 GLE1-Mediated mRNA Export Defect Creates…
14 2.0 1422 4 0 ATM Kinase Hyperactivation Triggers DNA …
15 1.0 1339 4 0 TBK1 Loss Drives MMP-9-Mediated TDP-43 F… G1
16 1.0 1274 4 0 SASP-Secreted MMP-9 from Senescent Micro… G1
17 1.0 1250 4 0 TBK1 Deficiency Disrupts Microglial Meta… G1
18 1.0 1231 4 0 MATR3 Nuclear Body Disruption Impairs RN…
19 0.0 1079 4 0 TBK1 Loss Drives Microglial Senescence-S… G1
20 0.0 1060 4 0 SASP-Secreted MMP-9 from Senescent Micro… G1

Matches

Round 1

Entity A targets the eIF2α phosphorylation pathway with existing, well-characterized inhibitors (GSK2606414, sal003) that have clear mechanisms and established safety profiles, making it more feasible for rapid clinical
Entity A presents a more promising research direction because it offers a novel mechanistic explanation (SFPQ paralog displacement) that directly addresses the well-established TDP-43 pathology central to ALS, with clear
Entity A is more promising because it provides concrete experimental evidence from SOD1-G93A mouse models showing measurable defects in RNA granule transport (50% velocity reduction, 3-fold increase in stall events) with
Entity B targets a more upstream and potentially universal mechanism in ALS pathogenesis - the oxidative stress pathway that affects TIA1 and subsequently drives TDP-43 mislocalization, which is present in >95% of ALS ca
Entity A presents a more promising research direction due to its higher feasibility (0.75 vs 0.68) and superior composite score, combined with identifying the earliest detectable biomarker of TDP-43 dysfunction. The STMN
Entity A is more promising because it offers a clearer, more testable hypothesis with specific quantitative predictions (>3-fold increase in aggregation concentration) and a direct therapeutic intervention (PRMT5 activat
Entity A presents a more promising research direction because it offers a unifying mechanistic framework that connects multiple established ALS pathways (TBK1 mutations, mitophagy defects, and metabolic dysfunction) with
Entity A presents a more promising research direction because it proposes a specific, testable molecular mechanism (MMP-9-mediated TDP-43 cleavage) that directly links TBK1 deficiency to the hallmark pathology of ALS. Th
Entity B is more promising as a research direction because it provides a clear, testable experimental framework with specific methodologies (GFAP-Cre;ATG7flox/flox mice, hiPSC co-cultures, NOX2 inhibition) and measurable
Entity A demonstrates higher feasibility with established genetic models and clear mechanistic pathways (TBK1-RIPK1-SASP axis), supported by multiple converging lines of evidence including human genetics, mouse models, a

Round 2

Entity A presents a more promising research direction because it targets a well-established, druggable pathway (ISR/eIF2α) with existing small molecule inhibitors (GSK2606414, sal003) that have already shown therapeutic
Entity A is more promising because it offers a more mechanistically precise and therapeutically tractable target. While both hypotheses have similar novelty and impact scores, RBM45's role in liquid-liquid phase separati
Entity A presents a more promising research direction because it addresses a fundamental and upstream pathological mechanism (axonal transport failure) that occurs before motor neuron death, with clear therapeutic target
Entity A presents a more promising research direction because it targets a more upstream and fundamental cellular process (mRNA export) that could have broader therapeutic implications across multiple ALS subtypes, not j
Entity A is more promising because it provides a mechanistically precise and testable hypothesis with clear experimental predictions (genetic/pharmacological MMP-9 blockade should protect fast-fatigable NMJs), backed by
Entity A is more promising because it provides a specific, testable mechanistic pathway (MMP-9 degrading nuclear import machinery) with strong existing evidence from mouse models showing MMP-9 reduction protects motor ne
Entity A is more promising because it identifies a highly feasible early biomarker (STMN2 cryptic exon inclusion) that precedes detectable pathology by 48 hours, offering a clear diagnostic and therapeutic window that co
Entity A presents a more promising research direction because it builds on established mechanistic foundations (TBK1's role in autophagy and mitophagy) with strong human genetic validation, making it highly feasible to t
Entity B presents a more promising research direction due to its higher feasibility (0.81 vs 0.72) and significantly higher confidence (0.72 vs 0.3), indicating a more testable and well-supported hypothesis. While Entity
Entity A is more promising because it has substantially stronger empirical support with multiple published studies (Nat Commun 2025, Cell 2018, Cell 2020) providing direct experimental validation of the TBK1-microglia ax

Round 3

Entity A demonstrates significantly higher feasibility with concrete experimental validation (ATM knockout mice showing measurable disease delay, specific post-mortem tissue findings with quantified biomarkers), while En
Entity B targets a more central and druggable pathway (eIF2α phosphorylation/ISR) that integrates multiple ALS-relevant stressors and has existing small molecule modulators, making it more feasible for therapeutic develo
Entity A presents a more promising research direction due to its dual therapeutic strategy combining ASO-mediated PSP1 knockdown with nuclear TDP-43 restoration, offering multiple intervention points that are technically
Entity A presents a more promising research direction because it offers a mechanistically coherent pathway from disease trigger (specific post-translational modifications) to pathological outcome (condensate dysfunction)
Entity A demonstrates significantly higher promise with concrete experimental evidence including quantified MATR3-NB reduction (3.2 vs 8.1 per nucleus), measurable splicing defects (2.3-fold elevated intron retention), a
Entity A is more promising because it provides a clear, testable mechanism with higher confidence scores (0.48 vs 0.345) and superior feasibility (0.6 vs None). While Entity B presents an intriguing multi-step cascade, i
Entity A presents a more promising research direction due to its higher feasibility score (0.68 vs none for B) and clearer experimental pathway with specific, testable predictions about CCL2-CCR2 signaling and MMP-9's ro
Entity A is more promising because it identifies a specific, measurable biomarker (STMN2 cryptic exon inclusion) that precedes other pathological changes and directly connects to a testable therapeutic intervention (anti
Entity A is more promising because it has stronger empirical support with multiple published studies (Nat Commun 2025, Cell 2018, Cell 2020) demonstrating key components of the hypothesis, whereas Entity B remains largel
Entity A demonstrates superior feasibility with concrete experimental validation pathways already established, including TDP-43 ALS mouse models showing MMP-9's protective effects and mass spectrometry detection of C-ter

Round 4

Entity A is more promising because it offers multiple, testable therapeutic interventions (mitochondrial biogenesis enhancers, glycolysis inhibitors, mitochondrial transplantation) that target a fundamental metabolic pat
Entity A presents a more promising research direction due to its stronger therapeutic feasibility and broader mechanistic implications. The ATM kinase hypothesis offers readily available small molecule inhibitors (AZD015
Entity A presents a more promising research direction due to its higher feasibility scores, more specific mechanistic predictions, and concrete therapeutic interventions that can be readily tested. The hypothesis include
Entity A presents a more comprehensive mechanistic framework with specific quantitative predictions (eIF2α phosphorylation thresholds, protein synthesis reduction percentages) and multiple therapeutic intervention points
Entity A presents a more comprehensive and testable research direction with specific molecular mechanisms (SFPQ paralog displacement, PSP1 upregulation), quantifiable predictions (10-fold PSP1 upregulation, mRNA half-lif
Entity A presents a more comprehensive and mechanistically detailed hypothesis with higher feasibility scores and concrete therapeutic targets (RBM45 LCD-targeting molecules, GSK3β inhibitors). The liquid-liquid phase se
Entity A demonstrates superior promise across multiple dimensions with a composite score of 0.81 versus B's 0.3864, driven by much stronger confidence (0.75 vs 0.345), novelty (0.82 vs 0.35), and measurable feasibility (
Entity A presents a more promising research direction due to its higher feasibility scores (0.68 vs unmeasured), more specific mechanistic predictions with quantitative experimental data (45% reduction in axonal mRNA, 60
Entity B demonstrates superior feasibility with established experimental methods (mass spectrometry for fragment detection, genetic MMP-9 reduction studies) and already has supporting evidence from multiple model systems
Entity A demonstrates significantly higher promise due to its strong foundation in validated human genetics (TBK1 mutations are established ALS/FTD risk factors) and substantial supporting evidence from multiple high-imp