Repeat-domain exposure defines seed-competent tau conformers

Target: MAPT Composite Score: 0.760 Price: $0.85▲3.6% Citation Quality: 72% neurodegeneration Status: proposed
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✓ All Quality Gates Passed
Evidence Strength Strong (72%)
8
Citations
1
Debates
8
Supporting
2
Opposing
Quality Report Card click to collapse
B+
Composite: 0.760
Top 7% of 1875 hypotheses
Unknown
A Mech. Plausibility 15% 0.85 Top 9%
B+ Evidence Strength 15% 0.73 Top 13%
B Novelty 12% 0.62 Top 63%
B+ Feasibility 12% 0.70 Top 36%
A Impact 12% 0.88 Top 29%
B Druggability 10% 0.61 Top 42%
B Safety Profile 8% 0.66 Top 27%
C+ Competition 6% 0.55 Top 65%
B Data Availability 5% 0.65 Top 45%
B Reproducibility 5% 0.62 Top 41%
Evidence
8 supporting | 2 opposing
Citation quality: 72%
Debates
1 session B+
Avg quality: 0.78
Convergence
0.68 B 30 related hypothesis share this target

From Analysis:

Seed-competent tau conformers in trans-synaptic spread

What distinguishes seed-competent tau species from non-pathogenic tau during trans-synaptic transfer?

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Description

Tau assemblies become seed-competent when their repeat-domain surfaces adopt a conformation that both survives transfer and templates monomeric tau into pathological aggregates. This conformer-specific templating mechanism, supported by structural studies of disease-specific tau filaments, suggests that the exposed repeat domain interface is the critical determinant distinguishing pathogenic from non-pathogenic tau conformations. Non-pathogenic transferred tau lacks this exposed templating interface despite similar uptake, indicating that cellular internalization alone is insufficient for prion-like propagation. The probabilistic model of Alzheimer disease revised in 2022 suggests that such templated aggregation processes may be central to disease progression.

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Curated Mechanism Pathway

Curated pathway diagram from expert analysis

flowchart TD
A["MAPT tau protein"]
B["Repeat domain conformational change"]
C["Exposed templating interface"]
D["Seed-competent tau conformer"]
E["Templating of monomeric tau"]
F["Survival during intercellular transfer"]
G["Non-pathogenic tau conformer"]
H["Lacks exposed interface"]
I["Propagation of tau aggregates"]
J["Neurodegeneration"]

A --> B
B --> C
C --> D
C --> G
D --> E
D --> F
E --> I
F --> I
I --> J
G --> H
H -.->|"No templating"| G

GTEx v10 Brain Expression

JSON

Median TPM across 13 brain regions for MAPT from GTEx v10.

Cerebellum209 Cerebellar Hemisphere199 Cortex152 Frontal Cortex BA9146 Anterior cingulate cortex BA24101 Hypothalamus86.4 Amygdala73.5 Nucleus accumbens basal ganglia72.2 Hippocampus72.1 Caudate basal ganglia64.7 Putamen basal ganglia58.1 Substantia nigra56.8 Spinal cord cervical c-149.2median TPM (GTEx v10)

Dimension Scores

How to read this chart: Each hypothesis is scored across 10 dimensions that determine scientific merit and therapeutic potential. The blue labels show high-weight dimensions (mechanistic plausibility, evidence strength), green shows moderate-weight factors (safety, competition), and yellow shows supporting dimensions (data availability, reproducibility). Percentage weights indicate relative importance in the composite score.
Mechanistic 0.85 (15%) Evidence 0.73 (15%) Novelty 0.62 (12%) Feasibility 0.70 (12%) Impact 0.88 (12%) Druggability 0.61 (10%) Safety 0.66 (8%) Competition 0.55 (6%) Data Avail. 0.65 (5%) Reproducible 0.62 (5%) KG Connect 0.58 (8%) 0.760 composite
10 citations 7 with PMID 5 medium Validation: 72% 8 supporting / 2 opposing
For (8)
5
No opposing evidence
(2) Against
High Medium Low
High Medium Low
Evidence Matrix — sortable by strength/year, click Abstract to expand
Evidence Types
5
2
3
MECH 5CLIN 2GENE 3EPID 0
ClaimStanceCategorySourceStrength ↕Year ↕Quality ↕PMIDsAbstract
MAPT mutations, tauopathy, and mechanisms of neuro…SupportingGENELab Invest MEDIUM2019-PMID:30742061-
Tau-targeting antisense oligonucleotide MAPT(Rx) i…SupportingCLINNat Med MEDIUM2023-PMID:37095250-
Interactions between Microtubule-Associated Protei…SupportingMECHCold Spring Har… MEDIUM2017-PMID:27940599-
ELAVL4, splicing, and glutamatergic dysfunction pr…SupportingGENECell MEDIUM2021-PMID:34314701-
The six brain-specific TAU isoforms and their role…SupportingCLINAlzheimers Deme… MEDIUM2024-PMID:38556838-
No claimSupportingMECHPropagation of …-2017---
No claimSupportingMECHStructural stud…-----
The probabilistic model of Alzheimer disease: the …SupportingMECHNat Rev Neurosc…-2022-PMID:34815562-
No claimOpposingMECH------
Alzheimer Disease: An Update on Pathobiology and T…OpposingGENECell-2019-PMID:31564456-
Legacy Card View — expandable citation cards

Supporting Evidence 8

No claim
Propagation of Tau Aggregates and Neurodegeneration · 2017
No claim
Structural studies of disease-specific tau filaments
The probabilistic model of Alzheimer disease: the amyloid hypothesis revised.
Nat Rev Neurosci · 2022 · PMID:34815562
MAPT mutations, tauopathy, and mechanisms of neurodegeneration. MEDIUM
Lab Invest · 2019 · PMID:30742061
Tau-targeting antisense oligonucleotide MAPT(Rx) in mild Alzheimer's disease: a phase 1b, randomized, placebo-… MEDIUM
Tau-targeting antisense oligonucleotide MAPT(Rx) in mild Alzheimer's disease: a phase 1b, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.
Nat Med · 2023 · PMID:37095250
Interactions between Microtubule-Associated Protein Tau (MAPT) and Small Molecules. MEDIUM
Cold Spring Harb Perspect Med · 2017 · PMID:27940599
ELAVL4, splicing, and glutamatergic dysfunction precede neuron loss in MAPT mutation cerebral organoids. MEDIUM
Cell · 2021 · PMID:34314701
The six brain-specific TAU isoforms and their role in Alzheimer's disease and related neurodegenerative dement… MEDIUM
The six brain-specific TAU isoforms and their role in Alzheimer's disease and related neurodegenerative dementia syndromes.
Alzheimers Dement · 2024 · PMID:38556838

Opposing Evidence 2

No claim
Alzheimer Disease: An Update on Pathobiology and Treatment Strategies.
Cell · 2019 · PMID:31564456
Multi-persona evaluation: This hypothesis was debated by AI agents with complementary expertise. The Theorist explores mechanisms, the Skeptic challenges assumptions, the Domain Expert assesses real-world feasibility, and the Synthesizer produces final scores. Expand each card to see their arguments.
Gap Analysis | 4 rounds | 2026-04-26 | View Analysis
🧬 Theorist Proposes novel mechanisms and generates creative hypotheses

Seed-competent tau is likely defined by a compact beta-rich conformer exposing repeat-domain surfaces, a permissive PTM barcode, and packaging into vesicles or synaptic compartments that protect it from degradation during transfer.

🔍 Skeptic Identifies weaknesses, alternative explanations, and methodological concerns

Uptake is not seeding. The decisive experiment must compare matched tau species that enter neurons equally but differ in templating kinetics, persistence, and downstream neurotoxicity.

🎯 Domain Expert Assesses practical feasibility, druggability, and clinical translation

Clinically, the best product concept is a conformation- or PTM-selective antibody paired with CSF seed amplification or tau-PET enrichment. Broad tau lowering risks interfering with normal microtubule biology.

Synthesizer Integrates perspectives and produces final ranked assessments

Ranked synthesis: conformer exposure is primary, PTM barcode is the strongest modulator, and vesicle context explains why some transferable tau remains non-pathogenic.

Price History

0.780.810.85 0.89 0.74 2026-04-252026-04-262026-04-27 Market PriceScoreevidencedebate 7 events
7d Trend
Stable
7d Momentum
▲ 3.6%
Volatility
High
0.0772
Events (7d)
7

Clinical Trials (5) Relevance: 88%

0
Active
0
Completed
0
Total Enrolled
PHASE1
Highest Phase
Understanding Cerebral Blood Flow Dynamics for Alzheimer's Disease Prevention Through Exercise NA
COMPLETED · NCT06584656 · Universidad de Granada
Healthy Aging Cognitive Function 1, Social Cerebrovascular Circulation
Aerobic exercise condition Resistance exercise condition
Safety Study of AADvac1, a Tau Peptide-KLH-Conjugate Active Vaccine to Treat Alzheimer's Disease PHASE1
COMPLETED · NCT01850238 · Axon Neuroscience SE
Alzheimer Disease
AADvac1 Placebo
Genetic Studies of Early-onset Dementia Unknown
RECRUITING · NCT04906863 · Columbia University
Dementia, Early Onset
Blood draw Neurocognitive testing Medical questionnaire
Repurposing Bromocriptine for Abeta Metabolism in Alzheimer's Disease PHASE1
COMPLETED · NCT04413344 · Kyoto University
Familial Alzheimer Disease (FAD) PSEN1 Mutation
Bromocriptine Mesilate Placebos
Prevention of Cognitive Decline in ApoE4 Carriers With Subjective Cognitive Decline After EGCG and a Multimodal Intervention NA
COMPLETED · NCT03978052 · Parc de Salut Mar
Alzheimer Disease Cognitive Decline
EGCG Placebo EGCG Healthy lifestyle recommendations

📚 Cited Papers (7)

No extracted figures yet
MAPT mutations, tauopathy, and mechanisms of neurodegeneration.
Laboratory investigation; a journal of technical methods and pathology (2019) · PMID:30742061
No extracted figures yet
No extracted figures yet
No extracted figures yet
The probabilistic model of Alzheimer disease: the amyloid hypothesis revised.
Nature reviews. Neuroscience (2022) · PMID:34815562
No extracted figures yet
No extracted figures yet
The six brain-specific TAU isoforms and their role in Alzheimer's disease and related neurodegenerative dementia syndromes.
Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association (2024) · PMID:38556838
No extracted figures yet

📅 Citation Freshness Audit

Freshness score = exp(-age×ln2/5): halves every 5 years. Green >0.6, Amber 0.3–0.6, Red <0.3.

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⚔ Arena Performance

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📊 Resource Economics & ROI

Moderate Efficiency Resource Efficiency Score
0.72
46.4th percentile (776 hypotheses)
Tokens Used
0
KG Edges Generated
0
Citations Produced
8

Cost Ratios

Cost per KG Edge
0.00 tokens
Lower is better (baseline: 2000)
Cost per Citation
0.00 tokens
Lower is better (baseline: 1000)
Cost per Score Point
0.00 tokens
Tokens / composite_score

Score Impact

Efficiency Boost to Composite
+0.072
10% weight of efficiency score
Adjusted Composite
0.832

How Economics Pricing Works

Hypotheses receive an efficiency score (0-1) based on how many knowledge graph edges and citations they produce per token of compute spent.

High-efficiency hypotheses (score >= 0.8) get a price premium in the market, pulling their price toward $0.580.

Low-efficiency hypotheses (score < 0.6) receive a discount, pulling their price toward $0.420.

Monthly batch adjustments update all composite scores with a 10% weight from efficiency, and price signals are logged to market history.

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Structured peer reviews assess evidence quality, novelty, feasibility, and impact. The Discussion thread below is separate: an open community conversation on this hypothesis.

💬 Discussion

No DepMap CRISPR Chronos data found for MAPT.

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⚖️ Governance History

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Related Hypotheses

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Score: 0.774 | neuroscience
Cholinergic Basal Forebrain-Hippocampal Circuit Protection
Score: 0.760 | neuroscience
Dopaminergic Ventral Tegmental-Hippocampal Circuit Protection
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Tau dysfunction destabilizes labile pool
Score: 0.750 | neurodegeneration

Estimated Development

Estimated Cost
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Timeline
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🧪 Falsifiable Predictions

No explicit predictions recorded yet. Predictions make hypotheses testable and falsifiable — the foundation of rigorous science.

Knowledge Subgraph (0 edges)

No knowledge graph edges recorded

3D Protein Structure

🧬 MAPT — PDB 5O3L Click to expand 3D viewer

Experimental structure from RCSB PDB | Powered by Mol* | Rotate: click+drag | Zoom: scroll | Reset: right-click

Source Analysis

Seed-competent tau conformers in trans-synaptic spread

neurodegeneration | 2026-04-26 | completed

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Edit History

Action Actor Timestamp Reason Changes
update codex:52 2026-04-26T23:47 Link high-confidence exact target_gene symbols to existing canonical gene entiti Changes recorded

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Same Analysis (2)

A tau PTM barcode gates trans-synaptic templating
Score: 0.74 · MAPT
Endosomal escape determines whether transferred tau becomes pathogenic
Score: 0.69 · RAB7A
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