ID: h-c86acecdaa
Hypothesis

Neurogranulin Predicts p-tau217 Reliability by Identifying Patients with Intact Neuronal Reserve

Neurogranulin (Ng) is a postsynaptic protein correlating with cognitive reserve.
🧬 NRGN🩺 neurodegeneration🎯 Composite 50%💱 $0.51▲2.3%proposed
EvidencePending (0%)📖 0 cit🗣 1 debates 3 support 2 oppose
⚠ Missing Evidence⚠ Orphaned Senate Quality Gates →
Mechanistic 0.50 (15%) Evidence 0.42 (15%) Novelty 0.68 (12%) Feasibility 0.38 (12%) Impact 0.48 (12%) Druggability 0.25 (10%) Safety 0.65 (8%) Competition 0.80 (6%) Data Avail. 0.40 (5%) Reproducible 0.42 (5%) KG Connect 0.50 (8%) 0.498 composite

🧪 Overview

Neurogranulin (Ng) is a postsynaptic protein correlating with cognitive reserve. Low Ng indicates depleted neuronal capacity to produce p-tau217, making CSF p-tau217 unreliable. Patients with preserved Ng levels show faithful p-tau217 response to amyloid modulation. This hypothesis addresses a potentially critical prerequisite for valid p-tau217 endpoints but remains the lowest-confidence proposal requiring prospective validation.

🧬 Mechanism

🧬 Curated Mechanism Pathway

Curated pathway from expert analysis

graph TD
    A["Neurogranulin NRGN expression level"] --> B["Intact neuronal reserve capacity index"]
    B --> C["Favorable amyloid modulation response profile"]
    C --> D["Reliable CSF p-tau217 as Alzheimer's progression marker"]
    D --> E["Accurate patient stratification for anti-amyloid therapy"]

⚖️ Evidence

⚖️ Evidence Matrix3 supports2 contradicts
Supports
CSF Ng declines with AD progression and correlates with hippocampal volume
Supports
Ng predicts treatment response to amyloid-targeting therapies in earlier AD
Supports
Benchmarking of a multi-biomarker low-volume panel for Alzheimer's Disease and related dementia research.
medRxiv2024PMID:38947090
Contradicts
No study has tested whether Ng baseline predicts concordance between p-tau217 normalization and cognitive stabilization post-cessation
Contradicts
Applying fluid biomarkers to Alzheimer's disease.
Am J Physiol Cell Physiol2017PMID:28424166
📖 Linked Papers

No linked papers recorded for this hypothesis yet.

🏥 Translation

🧬 3D Protein Structure — NRGN

No curated PDB or AlphaFold mapping for NRGN yet. Search RCSB →

🧠 GTEx v10 Brain ExpressionJSON

Median TPM across 13 brain regions for NRGN from GTEx v10.

Frontal Cortex BA92847 Cortex2573 Putamen basal ganglia1546 Caudate basal ganglia1443 Anterior cingulate cortex BA241331 Nucleus accumbens basal ganglia761 Amygdala731 Hippocampus591 Hypothalamus65.5 Substantia nigra42.6 Spinal cord cervical c-116.7 Cerebellar Hemisphere2.6 Cerebellum2.6median TPM (GTEx v10)

💉 Clinical Trials

No clinical trials data linked to this hypothesis yet.

No curated ClinVar variants loaded for this hypothesis.

Run scripts/backfill_clinvar_variants.py to fetch P/LP/VUS variants.

🔍 Search ClinVar for NRGN →

No DepMap CRISPR Chronos data found for NRGN.

Run python3 scripts/backfill_hypothesis_depmap.py to populate.

🏆 Tournament

🏆 Arenas / Elo

No arena matches recorded yet. Browse Arenas →

📊 Market Indicators

7d Trend
Stable
7d Momentum
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Volatility
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0.0031
Events (7d)
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Price History
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💾 Resource Usage

No resource usage or linked notebooks recorded for this hypothesis yet.

🔮 Predictions

🔎 Predictions vs Observations2 predictions · 0 with recorded observations
PredictionPredictedObservedStatusConf
IF we compare longitudinal CSF p-tau217 measurements (baseline, 6 months, 12 months) in amyloid-positive patients with low CSF Ng (below 25th percentile) versus preserved CSF Ng (above 75th percentilePreserved Ng group ICC: 0.89 (95% CI: 0.82-0.94); Low Ng group ICC: 0.52 (95% CI: 0.38-0.67); CV in low Ng group >20% vs <8% in preserved Ng group— no observation —pending0.18
IF we stratify amyloid-positive early Alzheimer's disease patients by baseline CSF neurogranulin (Ng) levels into high (upper tertile) and low (lower tertile) groups AND administer an amyloid-targetinHigh Ng group: mean CSF p-tau217 reduction of 45% (95% CI: 38-52%); Low Ng group: mean CSF p-tau217 reduction of 12% (95% CI: 5-19%); between-group difference p— no observation —pending0.15
🔮 Falsifiable Predictions (2)
pendingconf 18%
IF we compare longitudinal CSF p-tau217 measurements (baseline, 6 months, 12 months) in amyloid-positive patients with low CSF Ng (below 25th percentile) versus preserved CSF Ng (above 75th percentile) who receive no disease-modifying treatment, THEN the preserved Ng group will show higher test-rete
Predicted outcome: Preserved Ng group ICC: 0.89 (95% CI: 0.82-0.94); Low Ng group ICC: 0.52 (95% CI: 0.38-0.67); CV in low Ng group >20% vs <8% in preserved Ng group
Falsification: If the low Ng group demonstrates ICC >0.75 and CV <10%, equivalent to the preserved Ng group, the hypothesis that Ng identifies patients with unreliable p-tau217 is disproven
pendingconf 15%
IF we stratify amyloid-positive early Alzheimer's disease patients by baseline CSF neurogranulin (Ng) levels into high (upper tertile) and low (lower tertile) groups AND administer an amyloid-targeting monoclonal antibody (lecanemab or donanemab) for 18 months, THEN the high Ng group will exhibit a
Predicted outcome: High Ng group: mean CSF p-tau217 reduction of 45% (95% CI: 38-52%); Low Ng group: mean CSF p-tau217 reduction of 12% (95% CI: 5-19%); between-group di
Falsification: If both Ng groups demonstrate equivalent mean CSF p-tau217 reduction (±5% of each other) at 18 months, the hypothesis that Ng predicts p-tau217 reliability is disproven
Metadatasource: v1_phase_c_backfill · origin_type: gap_debate
sourcev1_phase_c_backfill
origin_typegap_debate
_schema_version1
📊 Evidence Profile
Evidence Balance
+0%
Certainty
0%
Debates
0
Incoming
0
Outgoing
0
0 supporting 0 contradicting 0 neutral
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