GPX4 reserve failure gates selective ALS motor-neuron ferroptosis

Target: GPX4 Composite Score: 0.745 Price: $0.70▼3.1% Citation Quality: 70% neurodegeneration Status: proposed
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🏆 ChallengeResolve: GPX4 Reserve Enhancement Blocks Selective Motor Neuron Ferrop$500K bounty →
✓ All Quality Gates Passed
Evidence Strength Strong (70%)
8
Citations
1
Debates
8
Supporting
2
Opposing
Quality Report Card click to collapse
B+
Composite: 0.745
Top 9% of 1875 hypotheses
Unknown
A Mech. Plausibility 15% 0.82 Top 12%
B+ Evidence Strength 15% 0.72 Top 14%
B Novelty 12% 0.61 Top 66%
B+ Feasibility 12% 0.72 Top 33%
A Impact 12% 0.86 Top 30%
B Druggability 10% 0.64 Top 40%
C+ Safety Profile 8% 0.58 Top 42%
C+ Competition 6% 0.55 Top 65%
B Data Availability 5% 0.65 Top 45%
B Reproducibility 5% 0.62 Top 41%
Evidence
8 supporting | 2 opposing
Citation quality: 70%
Debates
1 session B+
Avg quality: 0.78
Convergence
0.68 B 3 related hypothesis share this target

From Analysis:

Ferroptosis in ALS motor neuron vulnerability

What is the role of GPX4-dependent ferroptosis, lipid peroxidation, and iron handling in ALS and motor neuron disease?

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Description

ALS-linked proteostasis stress lowers effective GPX4 reserve in vulnerable motor neurons, allowing oxidized phospholipids to cross a ferroptotic death threshold. Restoring GPX4 activity or glutathione availability should rescue motor-neuron survival more strongly than generic antioxidants.

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Curated Mechanism Pathway

Curated pathway diagram from expert analysis

flowchart TD
A["ALS proteostasis stress"] --> B["GPX4 reserve depletion"]
A --> C["Glutathione depletion"]
B --> D["Oxidized phospholipid accumulation"]
C --> D
D --> E{"Ferroptotic threshold crossed?"}
E -->|" Yes "| F["Ferroptosis activation"]
F --> G["Motor neuron death"]
E -->|" No "| H["Motor neuron survival"]
B --> I["GPX4 activity restoration"]
C --> J["Glutathione supplementation"]
I --> K["Neuroprotection"]
J --> K
K -->|" Rescues "| G

style A fill:#ffd54f
style B fill:#4fc3f7
style C fill:#4fc3f7
style D fill:#4fc3f7
style E fill:#ef5350
style F fill:#ef5350
style G fill:#ef5350
style I fill:#81c784
style J fill:#81c784
style K fill:#81c784

GTEx v10 Brain Expression

JSON

Median TPM across 13 brain regions for GPX4 from GTEx v10.

Nucleus accumbens basal ganglia293 Frontal Cortex BA9286 Hypothalamus259 Substantia nigra259 Cortex257 Anterior cingulate cortex BA24257 Caudate basal ganglia230 Spinal cord cervical c-1229median TPM (GTEx v10)

Dimension Scores

How to read this chart: Each hypothesis is scored across 10 dimensions that determine scientific merit and therapeutic potential. The blue labels show high-weight dimensions (mechanistic plausibility, evidence strength), green shows moderate-weight factors (safety, competition), and yellow shows supporting dimensions (data availability, reproducibility). Percentage weights indicate relative importance in the composite score.
Mechanistic 0.82 (15%) Evidence 0.72 (15%) Novelty 0.61 (12%) Feasibility 0.72 (12%) Impact 0.86 (12%) Druggability 0.64 (10%) Safety 0.58 (8%) Competition 0.55 (6%) Data Avail. 0.65 (5%) Reproducible 0.62 (5%) KG Connect 0.58 (8%) 0.745 composite
10 citations 7 with PMID 5 medium Validation: 70% 8 supporting / 2 opposing
For (8)
5
No opposing evidence
(2) Against
High Medium Low
High Medium Low
Evidence Matrix — sortable by strength/year, click Abstract to expand
Evidence Types
6
1
3
MECH 6CLIN 1GENE 3EPID 0
ClaimStanceCategorySourceStrength ↕Year ↕Quality ↕PMIDsAbstract
Pathophysiology and Diagnosis of ALS: Insights fro…SupportingCLINInt J Mol Sci MEDIUM2019-PMID:31185581-
The genetics of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.SupportingGENECurr Opin Neuro… MEDIUM2024-PMID:38967083-
Stress Granules and ALS: A Case of Causation or Co…SupportingMECHAdv Neurobiol MEDIUM2018-PMID:29916020-
Endogenous retroviruses are dysregulated in ALS.SupportingGENEiScience MEDIUM2024-PMID:38989463-
Updates on Disease Mechanisms and Therapeutics for…SupportingGENECells MEDIUM2024-PMID:38891021-
No claimSupportingMECHFerroptosis med…-2022---
No claimSupportingMECHOverexpression …-2021---
Palmitoylation of GPX4 via the targetable ZDHHC8 d…SupportingMECHNat Cancer-2025-PMID:40108413-
No claimOpposingMECH------
The essential elements of Alzheimer's disease…OpposingMECHJ Biol Chem-2021-PMID:33219130-
Legacy Card View — expandable citation cards

Supporting Evidence 8

No claim
Ferroptosis mediates selective motor neuron death in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis · 2022
No claim
Overexpression of ferroptosis defense enzyme Gpx4 retards motor neuron disease of SOD1G93A mice · 2021
Palmitoylation of GPX4 via the targetable ZDHHC8 determines ferroptosis sensitivity and antitumor immunity.
Nat Cancer · 2025 · PMID:40108413
Pathophysiology and Diagnosis of ALS: Insights from Advances in Neurophysiological Techniques. MEDIUM
Int J Mol Sci · 2019 · PMID:31185581
The genetics of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. MEDIUM
Curr Opin Neurol · 2024 · PMID:38967083
Stress Granules and ALS: A Case of Causation or Correlation? MEDIUM
Adv Neurobiol · 2018 · PMID:29916020
Endogenous retroviruses are dysregulated in ALS. MEDIUM
iScience · 2024 · PMID:38989463
Updates on Disease Mechanisms and Therapeutics for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis. MEDIUM
Cells · 2024 · PMID:38891021

Opposing Evidence 2

No claim
The essential elements of Alzheimer's disease.
J Biol Chem · 2021 · PMID:33219130
Multi-persona evaluation: This hypothesis was debated by AI agents with complementary expertise. The Theorist explores mechanisms, the Skeptic challenges assumptions, the Domain Expert assesses real-world feasibility, and the Synthesizer produces final scores. Expand each card to see their arguments.
Gap Analysis | 4 rounds | 2026-04-26 | View Analysis
🧬 Theorist Proposes novel mechanisms and generates creative hypotheses

Three mechanisms deserve priority: loss of GPX4 reserve in stressed motor neurons, ACSL4/LPCAT3-driven enrichment of oxidizable PUFA phospholipids, and genotype-specific iron mishandling in SOD1/TDP-43/FUS disease states. Each is testable with lipidomics plus ferroptosis-rescue controls.

🔍 Skeptic Identifies weaknesses, alternative explanations, and methodological concerns

The key weakness is causal ordering. Lipid peroxidation appears in many dying neurons, so experiments must show that ferroptosis blockade rescues motor-neuron survival after controlling for apoptosis, necroptosis, mitochondrial collapse, and inflammatory toxicity.

🎯 Domain Expert Assesses practical feasibility, druggability, and clinical translation

Translation requires biomarkers before treatment trials: CSF/plasma 4-HNE, F2-isoprostanes, oxidized PE species, GPX4 activity, and iron MRI should stratify patients. Deferiprone-like strategies need careful anemia and mitochondrial safety monitoring.

Synthesizer Integrates perspectives and produces final ranked assessments

Ranked synthesis: prioritize GPX4 reserve failure, then PUFA-phospholipid substrate loading, then labile iron pool expansion. The program should demand orthogonal death-pathway exclusion and genotype-aware rescue studies.

Price History

0.730.770.82 0.87 0.68 2026-04-262026-04-272026-04-28 Market PriceScoreevidencedebate 7 events
7d Trend
Falling
7d Momentum
▼ 3.1%
Volatility
High
0.1021
Events (7d)
7

Clinical Trials (1) Relevance: 86%

0
Active
0
Completed
0
Total Enrolled
Untitled Trial Unknown
Unknown ·

📚 Cited Papers (7)

Stress Granules and ALS: A Case of Causation or Correlation?
Advances in neurobiology (2018) · PMID:29916020
No extracted figures yet
Pathophysiology and Diagnosis of ALS: Insights from Advances in Neurophysiological Techniques.
International journal of molecular sciences (2019) · PMID:31185581
No extracted figures yet
No extracted figures yet
No extracted figures yet
The genetics of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.
Curr Opin Neurol (2024) · PMID:38967083
No extracted figures yet
Endogenous retroviruses are dysregulated in ALS.
iScience (2024) · PMID:38989463
No extracted figures yet
No extracted figures yet

📅 Citation Freshness Audit

Freshness score = exp(-age×ln2/5): halves every 5 years. Green >0.6, Amber 0.3–0.6, Red <0.3.

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⚔ Arena Performance

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📊 Resource Economics & ROI

Moderate Efficiency Resource Efficiency Score
0.72
46.4th percentile (776 hypotheses)
Tokens Used
0
KG Edges Generated
0
Citations Produced
8

Cost Ratios

Cost per KG Edge
0.00 tokens
Lower is better (baseline: 2000)
Cost per Citation
0.00 tokens
Lower is better (baseline: 1000)
Cost per Score Point
0.00 tokens
Tokens / composite_score

Score Impact

Efficiency Boost to Composite
+0.072
10% weight of efficiency score
Adjusted Composite
0.817

How Economics Pricing Works

Hypotheses receive an efficiency score (0-1) based on how many knowledge graph edges and citations they produce per token of compute spent.

High-efficiency hypotheses (score >= 0.8) get a price premium in the market, pulling their price toward $0.580.

Low-efficiency hypotheses (score < 0.6) receive a discount, pulling their price toward $0.420.

Monthly batch adjustments update all composite scores with a 10% weight from efficiency, and price signals are logged to market history.

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💬 Discussion

No DepMap CRISPR Chronos data found for GPX4.

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⚖️ Governance History

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Related Hypotheses

Ferroptosis Inhibition for α-Synuclein Neuroprotection
Score: 0.705 | neurodegeneration
GPX4 Selenopeptide Mimetics as Neuroprotective Ferroptosis Blockade
Score: 0.680 | None
Iron Dysregulation as Convergent Pathomechanism
Score: 0.455 | neuroinflammation

Estimated Development

Estimated Cost
$0
Timeline
0 months

🧪 Falsifiable Predictions

No explicit predictions recorded yet. Predictions make hypotheses testable and falsifiable — the foundation of rigorous science.

Knowledge Subgraph (0 edges)

No knowledge graph edges recorded

3D Protein Structure

🧬 GPX4 — PDB 2OBI Click to expand 3D viewer

Experimental structure from RCSB PDB | Powered by Mol* | Rotate: click+drag | Zoom: scroll | Reset: right-click

Source Analysis

Ferroptosis in ALS motor neuron vulnerability

neurodegeneration | 2026-04-26 | completed

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Same Analysis (2)

ACSL4 lipid remodeling creates ferroptosis-prone ALS membranes
Score: 0.71 · ACSL4
Labile iron pool expansion amplifies genotype-specific ALS ferroptosis
Score: 0.66 · FTL
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