Labile iron pool expansion amplifies genotype-specific ALS ferroptosis

Target: FTL Composite Score: 0.664 Price: $0.76▲4.5% Citation Quality: 58% neurodegeneration Status: proposed
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✓ All Quality Gates Passed
Evidence Strength Moderate (58%)
0
Citations
1
Debates
3
Supporting
2
Opposing
Quality Report Card click to collapse
B
Composite: 0.664
Top 26% of 1875 hypotheses
Unknown
B Mech. Plausibility 15% 0.68 Top 43%
B Evidence Strength 15% 0.64 Top 33%
C+ Novelty 12% 0.55 Top 75%
B Feasibility 12% 0.69 Top 40%
B+ Impact 12% 0.72 Top 47%
B+ Druggability 10% 0.70 Top 31%
C+ Safety Profile 8% 0.52 Top 54%
C+ Competition 6% 0.55 Top 65%
B Data Availability 5% 0.65 Top 45%
B Reproducibility 5% 0.62 Top 41%
Evidence
3 supporting | 2 opposing
Citation quality: 57%
Debates
1 session B+
Avg quality: 0.78
Convergence
0.68 B 30 related hypothesis share this target

From Analysis:

Ferroptosis in ALS motor neuron vulnerability

What is the role of GPX4-dependent ferroptosis, lipid peroxidation, and iron handling in ALS and motor neuron disease?

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Description

SOD1, TDP-43, and FUS pathology may converge on impaired iron buffering in motor neurons and glia, increasing labile iron that catalyzes lipid peroxide propagation. Biomarker-guided iron buffering should benefit only the subgroup with demonstrable iron and lipid-peroxidation elevation.

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Curated Mechanism Pathway

Curated pathway diagram from expert analysis

flowchart TD
A["SOD1 pathology"]
B["TDP-43 pathology"]
C["FUS pathology"]
D["FTL dysfunction"]
E["Impaired iron buffering in motor neurons and glia"]
F["Labile iron pool expansion"]
G["Catalysis of lipid peroxide propagation"]
H["Lipid peroxidation accumulation"]
I["Ferroptosis"]
J["Motor neuron death"]
K["Biomarker-guided patient stratification"]
L["Identification of iron-elevated subgroup"]
M["Iron chelation therapy"]
N["Reduced labile iron"]
O["Neuroprotection"]
A -->|"converges"| D
B -->|"converges"| D
C -->|"converges"| D
D -->|"causes"| E
E -->|"enables"| F
F -->|"drives"| G
G -->|"propagates"| H
H -->|"induces"| I
I -->|"results in"| J
K -->|"identifies"| L
L -->|"enables targeted"| M
M -->|"reduces"| N
N -->|"prevents"| G
M -->|"provides"| O
J -->|"disease progression"| P["ALS phenotype"]
P -->|"clinical outcome"| Q["Neurological deficit"]
style A fill:#ef5350
style B fill:#ef5350
style C fill:#ef5350
style D fill:#ef5350
style E fill:#ef5350
style F fill:#ef5350
style G fill:#4fc3f7
style H fill:#ef5350
style I fill:#ef5350
style J fill:#ef5350
style K fill:#81c784
style L fill:#81c784
style M fill:#81c784
style N fill:#81c784
style O fill:#ffd54f

GTEx v10 Brain Expression

JSON

Median TPM across 13 brain regions for FTL from GTEx v10.

Spinal cord cervical c-16687 Substantia nigra3746 Amygdala3455 Nucleus accumbens basal ganglia3051 Caudate basal ganglia3027 Putamen basal ganglia2911 Anterior cingulate cortex BA242639 Hippocampus2630 Frontal Cortex BA92409 Hypothalamus2387 Cortex2230 Cerebellum1139 Cerebellar Hemisphere1100median TPM (GTEx v10)

Dimension Scores

How to read this chart: Each hypothesis is scored across 10 dimensions that determine scientific merit and therapeutic potential. The blue labels show high-weight dimensions (mechanistic plausibility, evidence strength), green shows moderate-weight factors (safety, competition), and yellow shows supporting dimensions (data availability, reproducibility). Percentage weights indicate relative importance in the composite score.
Mechanistic 0.68 (15%) Evidence 0.64 (15%) Novelty 0.55 (12%) Feasibility 0.69 (12%) Impact 0.72 (12%) Druggability 0.70 (10%) Safety 0.52 (8%) Competition 0.55 (6%) Data Avail. 0.65 (5%) Reproducible 0.62 (5%) KG Connect 0.58 (8%) 0.664 composite
5 citations 3 with PMID Validation: 58% 3 supporting / 2 opposing
For (3)
No supporting evidence
No opposing evidence
(2) Against
High Medium Low
High Medium Low
Evidence Matrix — sortable by strength/year, click Abstract to expand
Evidence Types
4
1
MECH 4CLIN 0GENE 1EPID 0
ClaimStanceCategorySourceStrength ↕Year ↕Quality ↕PMIDsAbstract
No claimSupportingMECHALS studies rep…-----
Inhibition of keratinocyte ferroptosis suppresses …SupportingGENECell Death Dis-2021-PMID:34707088-
Neuroferritinopathy.SupportingMECH--1993-PMID:20301320-
No claimOpposingMECH------
Neurodegeneration with Brain Iron Accumulation Dis…OpposingMECH--1993-PMID:23447832-
Legacy Card View — expandable citation cards

Supporting Evidence 3

No claim
ALS studies reporting iron accumulation and oxidative lipid injury
Inhibition of keratinocyte ferroptosis suppresses psoriatic inflammation.
Cell Death Dis · 2021 · PMID:34707088
Neuroferritinopathy.

Opposing Evidence 2

No claim
Neurodegeneration with Brain Iron Accumulation Disorders Overview.
Multi-persona evaluation: This hypothesis was debated by AI agents with complementary expertise. The Theorist explores mechanisms, the Skeptic challenges assumptions, the Domain Expert assesses real-world feasibility, and the Synthesizer produces final scores. Expand each card to see their arguments.
Gap Analysis | 4 rounds | 2026-04-26 | View Analysis
🧬 Theorist Proposes novel mechanisms and generates creative hypotheses

Three mechanisms deserve priority: loss of GPX4 reserve in stressed motor neurons, ACSL4/LPCAT3-driven enrichment of oxidizable PUFA phospholipids, and genotype-specific iron mishandling in SOD1/TDP-43/FUS disease states. Each is testable with lipidomics plus ferroptosis-rescue controls.

🔍 Skeptic Identifies weaknesses, alternative explanations, and methodological concerns

The key weakness is causal ordering. Lipid peroxidation appears in many dying neurons, so experiments must show that ferroptosis blockade rescues motor-neuron survival after controlling for apoptosis, necroptosis, mitochondrial collapse, and inflammatory toxicity.

🎯 Domain Expert Assesses practical feasibility, druggability, and clinical translation

Translation requires biomarkers before treatment trials: CSF/plasma 4-HNE, F2-isoprostanes, oxidized PE species, GPX4 activity, and iron MRI should stratify patients. Deferiprone-like strategies need careful anemia and mitochondrial safety monitoring.

Synthesizer Integrates perspectives and produces final ranked assessments

Ranked synthesis: prioritize GPX4 reserve failure, then PUFA-phospholipid substrate loading, then labile iron pool expansion. The program should demand orthogonal death-pathway exclusion and genotype-aware rescue studies.

Price History

0.660.710.75 0.79 0.62 2026-04-252026-04-272026-04-27 Market PriceScoreevidencedebate 7 events
7d Trend
Rising
7d Momentum
▲ 4.5%
Volatility
High
0.1217
Events (7d)
7

Clinical Trials (1) Relevance: 72%

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Untitled Trial Unknown
Unknown ·

📚 Cited Papers (3)

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📅 Citation Freshness Audit

Freshness score = exp(-age×ln2/5): halves every 5 years. Green >0.6, Amber 0.3–0.6, Red <0.3.

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⚔ Arena Performance

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📊 Resource Economics & ROI

Moderate Efficiency Resource Efficiency Score
0.72
46.4th percentile (776 hypotheses)
Tokens Used
0
KG Edges Generated
0
Citations Produced
0

Cost Ratios

Cost per KG Edge
0.00 tokens
Lower is better (baseline: 2000)
Cost per Citation
0.00 tokens
Lower is better (baseline: 1000)
Cost per Score Point
0.00 tokens
Tokens / composite_score

Score Impact

Efficiency Boost to Composite
+0.072
10% weight of efficiency score
Adjusted Composite
0.736

How Economics Pricing Works

Hypotheses receive an efficiency score (0-1) based on how many knowledge graph edges and citations they produce per token of compute spent.

High-efficiency hypotheses (score >= 0.8) get a price premium in the market, pulling their price toward $0.580.

Low-efficiency hypotheses (score < 0.6) receive a discount, pulling their price toward $0.420.

Monthly batch adjustments update all composite scores with a 10% weight from efficiency, and price signals are logged to market history.

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💬 Discussion

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⚖️ Governance History

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Estimated Development

Estimated Cost
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Timeline
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🧪 Falsifiable Predictions

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Knowledge Subgraph (0 edges)

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3D Protein Structure

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Source Analysis

Ferroptosis in ALS motor neuron vulnerability

neurodegeneration | 2026-04-26 | completed

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Same Analysis (2)

GPX4 reserve failure gates selective ALS motor-neuron ferroptosis
Score: 0.74 · GPX4
ACSL4 lipid remodeling creates ferroptosis-prone ALS membranes
Score: 0.71 · ACSL4
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