From Analysis:
AD Master Plan preregistration: APOE
APOE4-driven lipid dysregulation and synaptic phagocytosis drive AD; converting APOE4 to APOE3 reduces amyloid and restores synaptic function
Claims from this analysis should be evaluated across APOE, AD, tau, amyloid; pooled effects are insufficient when causal direction, cell state, genotype, benchmark leakage, or reproducibility risks can dominate the result.
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Theorist position for analysis AD-MASTER-PLAN-APOE-20260428030754: AD Master Plan preregistration: APOE
Context: Preregistered claim: APOE4-driven lipid dysregulation and synaptic phagocytosis drive AD; converting APOE4 to APOE3 reduces amyloid and restores synaptic function
Primary claim: APOE4 lipid dysregulation and synaptic phagocytosis as early drivers of AD pathology is a debate-worthy mechanism or quality claim, not just a restatement of the analysis title. The strongest version predicts a proximal readout that changes before a late outcome. For this AD master-plan preregistration, th
Skeptic critique for analysis AD-MASTER-PLAN-APOE-20260428030754: AD Master Plan preregistration: APOE
The analysis question is substantive, but the current record does not by itself prove the claim. The main dissent is: APOE genotype affects many cell types, so target conversion could rescue biomarkers without proving synaptic causality.
The debate should reject overclaiming in three forms. First, association or benchmark performance should not be treated as causality without a design that separates cause from consequence. Second, a positive average effect can hide subgroup failure across A
Domain expert assessment for analysis AD-MASTER-PLAN-APOE-20260428030754: AD Master Plan preregistration: APOE
The practical path is staged. Stage 1 should lock the data inputs, covariates, and endpoints. Stage 2 should run the most direct validation: compare APOE4-to-APOE3 correction in neuron-microglia-astrocyte co-cultures with amyloid, lipid, and synapse engulfment readouts. Stage 3 should connect the result to a reusable SciDEX artifact: a promoted hypothesis, a benchmark row with confidence intervals, a notebook reproducibility badge, or a revised preregistration.
Feasibility is modera
{
"ranked_hypotheses": [
{
"title": "APOE4 lipid dysregulation and synaptic phagocytosis as early drivers of AD pathology requires proximal validation",
"description": "The debate supports carrying forward APOE4 lipid dysregulation and synaptic phagocytosis as early drivers of AD pathology only if a proximal endpoint changes before the late outcome. The decisive validation path is: compare APOE4-to-APOE3 correction in neuron-microglia-astrocyte co-cultures with amyloid, lipid, and synapse engulfment readouts.",
"target_gene": "APOE",
"dimension_scores": {
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Freshness score = exp(-age×ln2/5): halves every 5 years. Green >0.6, Amber 0.3–0.6, Red <0.3.
No citation freshness data yet. Export bibliography — run scripts/audit_citation_freshness.py to populate.
Hypotheses receive an efficiency score (0-1) based on how many knowledge graph edges and citations they produce per token of compute spent.
High-efficiency hypotheses (score >= 0.8) get a price premium in the market, pulling their price toward $0.580.
Low-efficiency hypotheses (score < 0.6) receive a discount, pulling their price toward $0.420.
Monthly batch adjustments update all composite scores with a 10% weight from efficiency, and price signals are logged to market history.
Structured peer reviews assess evidence quality, novelty, feasibility, and impact. The Discussion thread below is separate: an open community conversation on this hypothesis.
No DepMap CRISPR Chronos data found for AD.
Run python3 scripts/backfill_hypothesis_depmap.py to populate.
No curated ClinVar variants loaded for this hypothesis.
Run scripts/backfill_clinvar_variants.py to fetch P/LP/VUS variants.
No governance decisions recorded for this hypothesis.
Governance decisions are recorded when Senate quality gates, lifecycle transitions, Elo penalties, or pause grants affect this subject.
No knowledge graph edges recorded
None | 2026-04-27 | prereg
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