ID: h-183fff58
Hypothesis

TDP-43 Pathology Disrupts the HGS-PYGB Autophagy Receptor Cascade in Motor Neurons

TDP-43 aggregates sequester hepatocyte growth factor-regulated tyrosine kinase substrate (HGS), a critical hub coordinating early endosome-to-autophagosome cargo delivery.
🧬 TARDBP (TDP-43), HGS, PYGB🩺 neurodegeneration🎯 Composite 70%💱 $0.63▼19.9%proposed
EvidencePending (0%)📖 0 cit🗣 1 debates 4 support 1 oppose
✓ All Quality Gates Passed
Mechanistic 0.75 (15%) Evidence 0.72 (15%) Novelty 0.70 (12%) Feasibility 0.65 (12%) Impact 0.75 (12%) Druggability 0.55 (10%) Safety 0.65 (8%) Competition 0.68 (6%) Data Avail. 0.65 (5%) Reproducible 0.68 (5%) KG Connect 0.50 (8%) 0.703 composite

🧪 Overview

TDP-43 aggregates sequester hepatocyte growth factor-regulated tyrosine kinase substrate (HGS), a critical hub coordinating early endosome-to-autophagosome cargo delivery. In motor neurons where TDP-43 nuclear loss and cytoplasmic aggregation occurs early in ALS, HGS is functionally depleted, creating specific vulnerability where upstream autophagy induction cannot compensate for downstream cargo recognition failure. This hypothesis survived critique due to its mechanistic specificity for motor neurons and direct connection to the hallmark pathology of >95% of ALS cases.

🧬 Mechanism

🧬 Curated Mechanism Pathway

Curated pathway from expert analysis

flowchart TD
    A["TARDBP/TDP-43<br/>Nuclear RNA-Binding Protein"]
    B["Stress or Mutation<br/>ALS/FTD Trigger"]
    C["TDP-43 Mislocalization<br/>Cytoplasmic Accumulation"]
    D["Nuclear TDP-43 Depletion<br/>Cryptic Exon Inclusion"]
    E["TDP-43 Aggregates<br/>Ubiquitin+ Phospho+ Inclusions"]
    F["Splicing Dysregulation<br/>STMN2/UNC13A Targets"]
    G["Synaptic Failure<br/>Motor Neuron Degeneration"]
    A --> B
    B --> C
    C --> D
    C --> E
    D --> F
    E --> G
    F --> G
    style A fill:#1a237e,stroke:#4fc3f7,color:#4fc3f7
    style C fill:#b71c1c,stroke:#ef9a9a,color:#ef9a9a
    style G fill:#b71c1c,stroke:#ef9a9a,color:#ef9a9a

⚖️ Evidence

⚖️ Evidence Matrix4 supports0 contradicts
Supports
TDP-43 pathology is a hallmark of >95% of ALS cases
Supports
HGS is an ALS-risk gene and interacts with autophagy machinery
Supports
HGS knockdown specifically impairs autophagy in neurons but not other cell types
Supports
TDP-43 binds 3' UTR regions of multiple autophagy genes
📖 Linked Papers

No linked papers recorded for this hypothesis yet.

🏥 Translation

🧬 3D Protein Structure — TARDBP

🧬 PDB 4BS2 Click to expand

Experimental structure from RCSB PDB | Powered by Mol*

🧠 GTEx v10 Brain ExpressionJSON

Median TPM across 13 brain regions for TARDBP (TDP-43), HGS, PYGB from GTEx v10.

Cerebellar Hemisphere131 Cerebellum115median TPM (GTEx v10)

💉 Clinical Trials

No clinical trials data linked to this hypothesis yet.

No curated ClinVar variants loaded for this hypothesis.

Run scripts/backfill_clinvar_variants.py to fetch P/LP/VUS variants.

🔍 Search ClinVar for TARDBP (TDP-43), HGS, PYGB →

No DepMap CRISPR Chronos data found for TARDBP (TDP-43), HGS, PYGB.

Run python3 scripts/backfill_hypothesis_depmap.py to populate.

🏆 Tournament

🏆 Arenas / Elo

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📊 Market Indicators

7d Trend
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7d Momentum
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0.0353
Events (7d)
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Price History
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💾 Resource Usage

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Total Cost
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🔮 Predictions

🔎 Predictions vs Observations2 predictions · 0 with recorded observations
PredictionPredictedObservedStatusConf
IF TDP-43 nuclear export is induced by arsenic trioxide (5 μM, 48h) in human iPSC-derived motor neurons versus cortical neurons, THEN motor neurons will show ≥60% greater HGS depletion and ≥50% higherMotor neurons exhibit significantly greater HGS loss (Western blot) and increased apoptotic markers (cleaved caspase-3) compared to cortical neurons following e— no observation —pending0.38
IF TARDBP is knocked down by ≥70% in human iPSC-derived motor neurons for 7 days, THEN HGS protein levels will decrease by ≥50% and p62/SQSTM1 cargo delivery to lysosomes will be impaired by ≥40% compSignificant reduction in HGS protein (Western blot) and decreased colocalization of p62 with LAMP2 lysosomal marker (confocal microscopy) in motor neurons with — no observation —pending0.45
🔮 Falsifiable Predictions (2)
pendingconf 45%
IF TARDBP is knocked down by ≥70% in human iPSC-derived motor neurons for 7 days, THEN HGS protein levels will decrease by ≥50% and p62/SQSTM1 cargo delivery to lysosomes will be impaired by ≥40% compared to scrambled siRNA controls.
Predicted outcome: Significant reduction in HGS protein (Western blot) and decreased colocalization of p62 with LAMP2 lysosomal marker (confocal microscopy) in motor neu
Falsification: HGS protein levels remain within 15% of control levels despite ≥70% TARDBP knockdown; OR p62 lysosomal delivery is unaffected and autophagy flux is normal
pendingconf 38%
IF TDP-43 nuclear export is induced by arsenic trioxide (5 μM, 48h) in human iPSC-derived motor neurons versus cortical neurons, THEN motor neurons will show ≥60% greater HGS depletion and ≥50% higher caspase-3 activation compared to cortical neurons under identical treatment.
Predicted outcome: Motor neurons exhibit significantly greater HGS loss (Western blot) and increased apoptotic markers (cleaved caspase-3) compared to cortical neurons f
Falsification: Both motor neurons and cortical neurons show equivalent HGS depletion (<20% difference) and equivalent caspase-3 activation; OR HGS depletion occurs without corresponding autophagy-lysosomal impairmen
Metadatasource: v1_phase_c_backfill · origin_type: gap_debate
sourcev1_phase_c_backfill
origin_typegap_debate
_schema_version1
📊 Evidence Profile
Evidence Balance
+0%
Certainty
0%
Debates
0
Incoming
0
Outgoing
0
0 supporting 0 contradicting 0 neutral
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