ID: h-31ca9240f9fc
Hypothesis

TBK1 Loss Locks Microglia in an Aged/Senescent Transcriptional State, Fueling ALS-Associated SASP

The hypothesis proposes that loss-of-function mutations in TBK1 contribute to ALS pathogenesis by trapping microglia in a senescent, pro-inflammatory state characterized by the Senescence-Associated Secretory Phenotype (SASP), thereby ac.
🧬 TBK1 → NF-κB / IRF3 / p62-autophagy / cGAS-STING axis🩺 als🎯 Composite 88%💱 $0.66▼27.1%validated
neurodegeneration
EvidencePending (0%)📖 16 cit🗣 2 debates 4 support 2 oppose
⚠ Low Validation Senate Quality Gates →
Mechanistic 0.50 (15%) Evidence 0.82 (15%) Novelty 0.82 (12%) Feasibility 0.80 (12%) Impact 0.50 (12%) Druggability 0.50 (10%) Safety 0.50 (8%) Competition 0.50 (6%) Data Avail. 0.50 (5%) Reproducible 0.50 (5%) KG Connect 0.50 (8%) 0.878 composite
🏆 ChallengeResolve: TBK1 Loss Locks Microglia in an Aged/Senescent Transcriptional State, F$5 →

🧪 Overview

The hypothesis proposes that loss-of-function mutations in TBK1 contribute to ALS pathogenesis by trapping microglia in a senescent, pro-inflammatory state characterized by the Senescence-Associated Secretory Phenotype (SASP), thereby accelerating disease progression. Supporting evidence includes a 2025 Nat Commun study demonstrating that microglia-specific TBK1 deletion in an ALS/FTD mouse model reproduces an aged-like transcriptional signature with increased inflammatory gene expression. Complementary work published in Cell (2018) established that partial TBK1 insufficiency during aging unleashes RIPK1-driven inflammation, linking TBK1 haploinsufficiency to age-dependent neurodegeneration. Human genetic evidence further supports this axis: TBK1 haploinsufficiency is recognized as a causal familial ALS/FTD risk mechanism. Additionally, research published in Cell (2020) showed that TDP-43 pathology can activate cGAS-STING signaling in ALS, implicating the innate immune pathway downstream of TBK1 loss. However, contradictory evidence exists.

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🧬 Mechanism

🧬 Curated Mechanism Pathway

Curated pathway from expert analysis

flowchart TD
    A["dsDNA/dsRNA or Bacteria<br/>STING/MAVS Signal"]
    B["TBK1 Activation<br/>IKK-epsilon Complex"]
    C["IRF3 Phosphorylation<br/>Ser396 by TBK1"]
    D["IRF3 Dimerization<br/>Nuclear Import"]
    E["Type-I IFN Expression<br/>IFN-beta/IFN-alpha"]
    F["Antiviral Defense<br/>ISG Upregulation"]
    G["TBK1 Loss-of-Function<br/>ALS10 Mutations"]
    H["OPTN/p62 Phosphorylation<br/>Selective Autophagy"]
    A --> B
    B --> C
    B --> H
    C --> D
    D --> E
    E --> F
    G -.->|"impairs"| B
    G -.->|"impairs"| H
    style A fill:#1a237e,stroke:#4fc3f7,color:#4fc3f7
    style F fill:#1b5e20,stroke:#81c784,color:#81c784
    style G fill:#b71c1c,stroke:#ef9a9a,color:#ef9a9a

⚖️ Evidence

⚖️ Evidence Matrix4 supports0 contradicts
Supports
Microglia-specific TBK1 loss produces an aged-like, pro-inflammatory signature in an ALS/FTD mouse model.
Nat Commun2025PMID:40858618high
Supports
Partial TBK1 loss unleashes RIPK1-driven inflammation during aging, linking TBK1 insufficiency to age-dependent neurodegeneration.
Cell2018PMID:30146158high
Supports
TBK1 haploinsufficiency is a causal familial ALS/FTD risk mechanism.
Nat Neurosci2015PMID:25803835high
Supports
TDP-43 can activate cGAS-STING signaling in ALS, supporting the innate-immune axis implicated downstream of TBK1 loss.
Cell2020PMID:33031745medium

🏥 Translation

🧬 3D Protein Structure — TBK1

No curated PDB or AlphaFold mapping for TBK1 yet. Search RCSB →

🧠 GTEx v10 Brain ExpressionJSON

Median TPM across 13 brain regions for TBK1 → NF-κB / IRF3 / p62-autophagy / cGAS-STING axis from GTEx v10.

Cerebellar Hemisphere11.6 Cerebellum10.0 Frontal Cortex BA97.2 Spinal cord cervical c-16.7 Hypothalamus6.0 Cortex5.7 Substantia nigra4.7 Anterior cingulate cortex BA244.5 Caudate basal ganglia4.0 Hippocampus3.9 Nucleus accumbens basal ganglia3.9 Amygdala3.5 Putamen basal ganglia3.5median TPM (GTEx v10)

💉 Clinical Trials

No clinical trials data linked to this hypothesis yet.

No curated ClinVar variants loaded for this hypothesis.

Run scripts/backfill_clinvar_variants.py to fetch P/LP/VUS variants.

🔍 Search ClinVar for TBK1 → NF-κB →

No DepMap CRISPR Chronos data found for TBK1 → NF-κB.

Run python3 scripts/backfill_hypothesis_depmap.py to populate.

🏆 Tournament

🏆 Arenas / Elo

Elo Rating
1467 ±247
Record
1W / 1L / 0D
2 matches

📊 Market Indicators

7d Trend
Falling
7d Momentum
▼ 2.0%
Volatility
Medium
0.0473
Events (7d)
3
Price History
▼27.1%

💾 Resource Usage

LLM Tokens
1,719,547
$5.7947
API Calls
297
CPU Time
0.0s
Total Cost
$5.7947

🔮 Predictions

🔎 Predictions vs Observations2 predictions · 0 with recorded observations
PredictionPredictedObservedStatusConf
IF Cx3cr1-Cre;Tbk1fl/fl;SOD1G93A mice (microglia-specific TBK1 knockout in ALS model) are compared to littermate controls (SOD1G93A; Tbk1fl/fl), THEN microglial SA-β-gal+ cells and p16Ink4a/p21Cip1 exIncreased microglial senescence markers (SA-β-gal activity, p16Ink4a/p21Cip1) and elevated SASP factor concentrations in CSF— no observation —pending0.45
IF iPSC-derived microglia from ALS patients with TBK1 mutations (or TBK1 knockdown via CRISPRi) are compared to isogenic controls, THEN mRNA expression of senescent identity genes (CDKN2A, GLB1, LGALSUpregulated senescence transcriptional signature and SASP secretome in patient-derived microglia with impaired TBK1— no observation —pending0.50
🔮 Falsifiable Predictions (2)
pendingconf 50%
IF iPSC-derived microglia from ALS patients with TBK1 mutations (or TBK1 knockdown via CRISPRi) are compared to isogenic controls, THEN mRNA expression of senescent identity genes (CDKN2A, GLB1, LGALS3) will increase by ≥2-fold AND secretome will show ≥50% elevation of classical SASP factors (IL-6,
Predicted outcome: Upregulated senescence transcriptional signature and SASP secretome in patient-derived microglia with impaired TBK1
Falsification: TBK1-deficient microglia fail to show increased CDKN2A/GLB1/LGALS3 expression or elevated SASP secretion compared to isogenic controls after inflammatory challenge (fold-change <1.3, p>0.05, n≥3 lines
pendingconf 45%
IF Cx3cr1-Cre;Tbk1fl/fl;SOD1G93A mice (microglia-specific TBK1 knockout in ALS model) are compared to littermate controls (SOD1G93A; Tbk1fl/fl), THEN microglial SA-β-gal+ cells and p16Ink4a/p21Cip1 expression in spinal cord ventral horn will increase by ≥60% at disease onset (12 weeks), AND SASP fac
Predicted outcome: Increased microglial senescence markers (SA-β-gal activity, p16Ink4a/p21Cip1) and elevated SASP factor concentrations in CSF
Falsification: No significant difference in microglial senescence markers or SASP factor levels between TBK1-knockout and control mice at any timepoint (p>0.05, n≥10/group)
Metadatasource: v1_phase_c_backfill · origin_type: gap_debate
sourcev1_phase_c_backfill
origin_typegap_debate
_schema_version1
📊 Evidence Profile
Evidence Balance
+0%
Certainty
0%
Debates
0
Incoming
0
Outgoing
0
0 supporting 0 contradicting 0 neutral
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